Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
You would assume that most people who watch Survivor have also played some level of board games in their lives, because the show is basically a board game with real-life meeples. And the key to a board game is to include a measure of luck — so the person who is best doesn’t win every time — without forcing the game to rely too much on luck — so there’s a reason to work to be better at the game. Candy Land is good for kids, because it’s all luck. Chess sis the opposite game, no luck at all.
Currently, Survivor is more Candy Land than chess.
That’s maybe an overstatement, but the Shot in the Dark wrinkle to tribal councils has introduced nothing that helps the game. And yes, that’s in part because it’s been used three times in four episodes and failed all three times, but it’s also because it (a) adds in a wrinkle that is completely devoid of strategy, and (b) people too often consider it a reasonable alternative. You shouldn’t come out of the immunity challenge saying, “Well, I can always try the Shot in the Dark.” You should only start considering it when all else has failed and you are at the end of tribal council, and you know it’s over.
Or, even better, not have that wrinkle at all.
Anyway, on to our look at Episode 4 of this season of Survivor, with some key takeaways and an update on our preseason picks.
Survivor 42 Episode 4 Recap
At Vati, we get a recap of Jenny’s ouster from last episode, including Daniel’s worst tribal council ever and his fatal mistake of committing to not going to rocks, giving Hai the edge.
That’s all we get pre-reward challenge, so we jump right in to “untangle the braided rope, retrieve a sled, get balls, make baskets” in a quest for some fish. I’m sure the producers thought the lack of obvious strength-based components and the fact that each tribemate has to make a basket meant this challenge means it won’t be a Jonathan-centric challenge … and they were extraordinarily wrong about that, because Jonathan untangles the ropes like it was a 5-year-old’s tennis shoe, he retrieves the sled, and then it takes (if the editing is to be believed) about five or six shots to make four baskets. Taku’s done before either of the other tribe has even come close to being finished with the ropes, and it’s a walkover.
The reward is, per Probst, 10 “decent-sized” fish, and it turns out that Probst does not really understand size descriptions, because they get 10 full branzino-sized fish hanging out at the tribe when they return, and that raises my question: How long can a fish hang out unrefrigerated without being butchered? Did these four people that have been surviving on little rice crumbs for a while suddenly have to eat 10 fish in, like, half a day? Because that’s an awful, awful prize.
Anyway, Omar and Maryanne are annoyed with Jonathan for telling everyone at the reward challenge how tight-knit they are, which is a super manufactured controversy, because, like, what else is he going to say? “Yeah, we all hate each other, but I’m strong, so we keep winning.” But whatever, we needed some Taku conversation this week. (We also get a Jonathan segment about how he wants to provide, which felt very winner’s-edit-y. We’ll see.)
Finally, we visit Ika for what feels like the first time in two weeks (because it’s the first time in two weeks). We get a little segment featuring how bossy Rocksroy is, and fun fact, but my brother made it far along the process to be on the first season of Survivor but didn’t quite make it, and he would have been Rocksroy before Rocksroy. Doing the work, absolutely convinced his instructions are right and must be followed at all times, absolutely not interested in tribal drama or any grand strategy. My brother would not have won Survivor if he had made it. And neither will Rocksroy.
Anyway, Tori is frustrated with how bossy Rocksroy is but wants Drea to go, so she comes to Rocksroy with the news of Drea’s advantage, which totally backfires. Everyone talks about Tori’s backstabbing, and it seems bad for her.
We head to the immunity challenge, which involves two tribe members swim-towing a boat — or, if you’re Taku, Jonathan swim-towing a boat and Maryanne — jumping to get some keys, and doing a hanging fish puzzle. Jonathan’s superhero-ness gives Taku the win:
In the race for second, Vati falls way behind because Lydia cannot jump from a platform to save her life, but then they come from behind to win because Lydia can solve a puzzle. So Ika’s heading to its first tribal since the first episode.
(At the end of the challenge, the show gives us Omar positively belly-flopping into the water to head back to camp, and in no way did the show have to do that to him.)
OK, so it’s scramble time at Ika. Rocksroy wants Tori to go. She knows she’s against the wall, so she absolutely throws Swati under the bus to Romeo and says Swati was the one who wanted Drea out. Romeo buys it, talks to Drea, and we get a montage of Swati telling a variety of people “You’re my number one”—though it’s worth noting that the quote to Tori is the only time we actually see her say it, with the other times coming when her face is facing at an “easy to edit” away-from-the-camera angle. Anyway, it seems to work, or at least the show wants us to think that.
At tribal, there’s some real Swati-Tori sniping, but it’s not totally clear what’s about to happen until Rocksroy goes on a rant about how proud he is for Swati, and it’s pretty clear from there what’s going to happen. Swati tries her Shot in the Dark, it fails, and she goes out by a 3-1 vote, with Rocksroy insisting on rising “above it all” and voting for Tori despite it clearly being a lost cause.
Recapping my picks
With Marya and Jenny gone, my next tier of picks were Omar and Hai. We get almost nothing from Hai this week other than his breakdown of how he clowned Daniel a week ago. Omar gets the aforementioned bellyflop and also the aforementioned faux-controversy of Jonathan anger. Really, both guys got most of the week off.
Stock Rising
Jonathan has to be listed here again, if only because of his hero edit early on. On top of that, as I mentioned above, he’s just so much more physically dominant than the rest of the people out there that I think he’s got a run in him, and his final tribal argument is all set for him.
I’m not sure how much to count on Drea, but she goes from “we want her out” to “no mention of her at tribal at all,” and she still has multiple advantages, so I still think she’s interesting.
Stock Falling
I mentioned this earlier — if this show were really about who could survive on the island, Rocksroy (and my brother) would probably be fine. But it’s a social exercise, and that’s clearly not Rocksroy’s bag. If he makes the merge I’ll be somewhat surprised.
Tori is already having to scramble way too hard to have any kind of long-term shot here.
Tracking the Advantages and Wrinkles
No changes this week:
- Amulet Advantage: Lindsay, Hai, Drea
- Extra Vote: Maryanne, Drea
- Beware Advantage: Mike, Maryanne (can become an immunity idol, but cannot vote until that happens)
No vote at next tribal: Omar
