Changing Betting Values for the 2025 Academy Awards (February)

The 2024 NFL season is over, and for many sports fans, that means transitioning from football to college basketball or the return of the PGA. Regardless of your sports viewing preference, one betting market outside sports often gets overlooked this time of year. We are less than one month away from the 97th Academy Awards, and Oscar betting sizzled with intrigue this week. 

In my initial values article in October, I talked about how this year’s Best Picture and Director races would likely be between two films, and that is still where DraftKings places the value. The competition between Anora (NEON) and The Brutalist (A24)will be discussed in Oscar circles for the next decade, but which film currently has the best betting value? That’s even more nuanced. 

The last Oscar season with this much ambiguity, this late in the season, saw the feel-good movie of 2022, Coda, come out of relative obscurity and made a late run to hold off Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog (the superior film)for its Best Picture win. 

2025 Oscars Changing Values

Best Picture

Speaking of Best Picture, the fluctuation in odds between Anora and The Brutalist since odds dropped in October are notable: 

The volatility is real. 

Both films have things working for and against them in the race for Best Picture, not the least of which is hardware already collected. Anora won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Picture last week, pushing it ahead of The Brutalist as the favorite on DraftKings. Before that, The Brutalist rebounded after it won Best Picture — Drama at the Golden Globes in January. 

Both films have received criticism of different sorts — Anora for not employing intimacy coordinators and The Brutalist a bit more for using AI to “clean up” Adrien Brody’s Hungarian accent. 

Both are nominated for Best Picture at the British Academy of Film and Television this Sunday. I will closelymonitor the results of the BAFTAs, as they are a significant component, along with the Globes, TIFF People’s Choice Award, Palme d’Or, in reading the Oscar tea leaves.

In November, Anora charmed me, and I still consider it the best film of the year. However, it will not win the Oscar for Best Picture. The Academy is often more conservative than the Critics’ Choice Award, and the BAFTAs, so this weekend will tell us a lot moving forward. 

The Brutalist has the essence of a Best Picture winner anyway, but the scale and scope it creates at the cost of $10 million is unmatched in the history of film. The film’s long shots, color contrasts and use of 35mm VistaVision make it even more visually stunning than Anora. 

What else does The Brutalist have in its resume that Anora lacks? Well, a few things. 

Not only is The Brutalist nominated for Best Picture, but also Best Original Score and Best Cinematography. The direction, cinematography and score thread together a cohesive epic that is a better testament to modern film and legacy.

In my opinion, Demi Moore overtaking Mikey Madison as the favorite for Best Actress boosted Anora’s value in the Best Picture category, but that’s a story for a different category. 

I’m more confident in The Brutalist (+225) now than I have been through the entire process.

Best Actress

I haven’t wavered that the best performance this year is Mikey Madison in Anora — to be clear, I mean out of any performance. That said, I don’t like being the one out on Demi Moore, but I was not a fan of The Substance and thought the performance was a stretch even for a lifetime achievement Oscar. Then again, I thought the same thing a few years ago about Cate Blanchett’s performance in Tár compared to Michelle Yeoh’s in Everything Everywhere All at Once. I was wrong then. 

Does Anora being the favorite help Mikey Madison’s chances? Of course it does. Call this a lighter sprinkle, but I love the value at +250, and it sets up as a nice hedge against The Brutalist pick above if Anora and Mikey Madison do well this weekend at the BAFTAs. 

Mikey Madison (+250) can win it regardless. 

Other Notes

Best Director: Sean Baker (Anora -175) vs. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist +130): Too close to call at the moment, but it’s an excellent value for Corbet if you like him to win.

Best Actor: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist -175) vs. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown +150): We’ve been on Chalamet since he was at +1000 in November, so “don’t think twice, it’s all right.” He’s still the pick.