Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have 12 games on the NHL slate for Tuesday, so there’s plenty of action to be had on the ice. Below you’ll see a list of three of my favorite NHL props, with a couple of bonus NHL prop bets as well.
The odds change pretty quickly in the NHL, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for all of my picks.
With our FTN Bets package, you’ll get picks from everyone at FTN, plus tools, projections and access to Discord, where I’ll discuss every slate.
This is a great night for SGP Point Parlays, so be sure to check out our FTN Bets Tracker for more! With our betting package you get all of our picks across all sports, plus access to our Discord channel and to our projections.
It’s been a fun few days and now is the time to join FTN with the excitement of Opening Day in MLB and March Madness.
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Be sure to check out Mean Streets for daily picks and Dangle Bet Celly for full NHL breakdowns each Tuesday and Thursday.
The Best NHL Prop Bets
Jamie Benn Point
(-120, BetMGM)
I’m sure you’re not surprised, but I like the Dallas Stars Tuesday. The Stars check in with the best possible matchup a team could have, despite playing on the road. We’ve been picking on the San Jose Sharks, and that’s not going to change even on a 12-game slate. Since Feb. 1 at 5v5/60, they have a league high 3.98 GA/60 and 3.01 xGA/60. Over that time period, they rank third in both attempts and shots, fourth in high danger chances and fifth in scoring chances against, according to Natural Stat Trick.
This is a great spot at 5v5 for Dallas as they’re in the top 10 in shots, attempts, scoring chances and goals for. On top of that, the Sharks have the fourth-worst penalty kill in the NHL. There are a lot of different ways to go here as you’ll see with some of my bonus NHL Prop bets below. Let’s lead with Jamie Benn who enters on a six-game point streak. The veteran winger has points in 10 of his last 11 games. He has seven goals and 15 points over that span, with seven coming on the power play as he skates on the first unit. I also believe there’s good value on his center Wyatt Johnston to pick up a point as well as Tyler Seguin and Matt Duchene. Johnston has 15 points in his last 14 games. The sophomore forward had a hat trick, five points and six shots when his Stars played in San Jose March 5. Duchene and Seguin have combined for eight points in the three games since Seguin has returned to the lineup. I’m not going to lie to you, as discussed on Dangle Bet Celly, I’m taking shots on all three lines to have a two-point game.
Bonus
- Matt Duchene Point (-135, DraftKings)
- Tyler Seguin Point (-120, DraftKings)
- Wyatt Johnston Point (-120, DraftKings)
- Wyatt Johnston O 2.5 SOG (-130, DraftKings)
- Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson Points SGP (+230, Bet365)
- Duchene, Seguin, Mason Marchment 2 Points SGP (+7500, Bet365) 0.25 units
- Benn, Johnston, Logan Stankoven 2 Points SGP (+7500, Bet365) 0.25 units
Gustav Nyquist Point
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This run by the Nashville Predators has been absolutely spectacular to see, and they’re hard to ignore at the moment. The Preds looked toast two months ago. They couldn’t buy a save and they couldn’t get any offense outside of their top line. They were looking like sellers at the NHL trade deadline, but they instead decided to stay the course (for the most part), and they’ve taken off since. Nashville has won five straight games and 15 of its last 17.
A player I continue to talk about is Gustav Nyquist. He’s been under owned in fantasy hockey leagues all season and he’s been undervalued in the betting market. Nyquist had four points in his first nine games with the Preds. He has 59 in his last 62 games, and his 63 points on the season are a new career high mark for the 34-year-old. It’s hard to believe we can get a price like this for Nyquist to get a point. Even if he fails to hit the score sheet tonight, he’s been at this price for most of the season. He has points in five straight games and 14 of his last 18. His Preds get a tough Vegas squad, but the defending champs played Monday night in St. Louis, and they’ll most likely turn to their third string goalie. Jiri Patera hasn’t played in the NHL since Jan. 10, and he’s allowed 16 goals in his four starts this season.
Bonus
- Roman Josi Point (-145, DraftKings)
- Filip Forsberg O 3.5 SOG (-140, DraftKings)
- Jack Eichel O 3.5 SOG (-112, BetRivers)
Cale Makar Over 1.5 Points
(+175, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The other lopsided matchup on this 12-game slate is in Colorado, as the Avs welcome the Montreal Canadiens to Ball Arena. The obvious plays in this game surround Nathan MacKinnon. The Avs’ center has a point in all 34 home games this season and he’s just six games away from matching Wayne Gretzky’s record of 40. MacKinnon for two points has been an automatic play for us at FTN when he plays at home. Having said that, his point and shot prop prices have moved from the time we placed them Monday night in our Discord. MacKinnon has gone from -135 to -145 for two points and his shot prop has moved from -120 to -135. I still like both bets, but there are other players to attack in this game.
Vegas is expecting MacKinnon to pick up a couple of points and they expect Makar to get an assist as he’s priced at -175. How about Makar for a two-point game at +175? He has five multipoint games in his last 11 and he has points in 11 of his past 13 games, including six straight games with a point. Montreal’s 5v5 game has been solid of late, but they’re sixth in penalty minutes and they have the sixth-worst PK%. The Avs have a lethal power play (sixth best), which is operating at 24.8%. On top of all that, Colorado has won nine straight games and they’ve outscored their opponents 42-18 over that span. My goodness.
Bonus
- Nathan MacKinnon O 1.5 Points (-145, BetMGM)
- Jonathan Drouin Point (-140, BetMGM)
- Valeri Nichushkin, Mikko Rantanen, Casey Mittelstadt Points SGP (+140, Bet365)
- Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovsky Points SGP (+240, Bet365)
We discussed the process behind shot on goal ladders on Tuesay’s episode at the 1:01:00 mark.
- Nathan MacKinnon O 4.5 SOG (-135, BET MGM) 1 unit
- MacKinnon 6 SOG (+155, Bet365) 0.75 units
- MacKinnon 7 SOG (+290, Bet365) 0.50 units
- MacKinnon 8+ SOG (+550, Bet365) 0.25 units
Artemi Panarin Over 1.5 Points
(+150, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Through 71 games this season, Panarin has already set career highs in goals (43), points (99) and shots (256). This is the first time in his career he’s scored more than 32 goals, and he’s racked up 90-plus points for the third straight season and fourth time in five years. Before this season, Panarin had four seasons with at least 200 shots, but he only had 204 over 82 games last season. I’m not sure if there was a conversation between him and new head coach Peter Laviolette, but Panarin has made a point to shoot the puck as he’s averaging a career high 3.6 shots per game. Panarin has five goals and 13 shots over his past two games. He had a five-point game March 16 in Pittsburgh, and he’s had nine multipoint games in his last 18 contests.
Bonus
- Alexis Lafreniere Point (+114, DraftKings)
- Artemi Panarin O 3.5 SOG (+120, DraftKings)
Goal Scorers
Nathan MacKinnon
Alex Ovechkin
Tyler Seguin
Jake Guentzel
William Nylander
Filip Forsberg
Artemi Panarin
Nazem Kadri
Timo Meier
Tyler Toffoli
Zach Hyman
Dylan Guenther
Cole Caufield
Fabian Zetterlund
PrizePicks
- Nathan MacKinnon O 4.5 SOG
- Wyatt Johnston O 2.5 SOG
- Jamie Benn Point
- Matt Duchene Point
- Tyler Seguin Point
- Gustav Nyquist Point
