Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have 11 games on the NHL slate for Thursday, so there’s plenty of action to be had on the ice. Below you’ll see my favorite NHL props, with a couple of bonus NHL prop bets as well.
The odds change pretty quickly in the NHL, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for all of my picks.
With our FTN Bets package, you’ll get picks from everyone at FTN, plus tools, projections and access to Discord, where I’ll discuss every slate.
This is a great night for SGP Point Parlays, so be sure to check out our FTN Bets Tracker for more! With our betting package you get all of our picks across all sports, plus access to our Discord channel and to our projections.
It’s been a fun few days, and now is the time to join FTN with the excitement of Opening Day in MLB and March Madness.
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Be sure to check out Mean Streets for daily picks and Dangle Bet Celly for full NHL breakdowns each Tuesday and Thursday.
The Best NHL Prop Bets
Anthony Duclair Point
(-115, BetMGM)
You knew this was coming, didn’t you? If you’ve been following my work, then you know I think Duclair is one of the biggest winners from the NHL trade deadline and he’s been on our NHL betting card since the move to Tampa Bay.
I don’t really care that he’s playing his former team, even though revenge narratives are fun to talk about and I do think there’s something behind revenge games in the NHL and NBA more than other sports. Revenge or not, this is a great spot and we’ve been picking on the Sharks all season. I should be sleeping at 3 AM ET, but I’m instead thinking of ways to continue to pick on SJ as seen in our FTN NHL Bets Discord.
Duclair has points in all four games he’s played with Tampa Bay, including goals in three of four. Even if he doesn’t fall into a point, he’s a good bet as long as he sticks with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. I like both Kucherov and Point to pick up two points, so hopefully Duclair can get in on the action. I know I sound like a broken record here, but since Feb. 1, the Sharks are second in shot attempts and third in shots allowed at 5v5/60, according to Natural Stat Trick. They also rank fifth in high danger chances and third in scoring chances surrendered. All of that has led to a league-high 3.09 xGA/60 and 4.09 GA/60 over that time frame. And to pile on some more, the Sharks have a bottom five penalty kill and the Lightning have the game’s best power play (28.8%). I decided to ladder Point up to seven shots on goal and I think Steven Stamkos for five shots at +375 at Bet365 is worth your time.
Bonus
- Nikita Kucherov 2 Points (-110, DraftKings) 2 units
- Brayden Point O 2.5 SOG (-130, BetRivers) 2 units
- Brayden Point 4+ SOG (+170, Bet365)
- Steven Stamkos O 2.5 SOG (-140, DraftKings)
- Brayden Point 2 Points (+160, DraftKings)
- Kucherov, Point, Duclair 2 Points (+1100, Bet365) 0.50 units
- Point Hat Trick (+3500, BetRivers) 0.25 units
- Duclair Hat Trick (150-1 Bet365) 0.10 units
Cole Caufield Over 3.5 SOG
(-130, BetRivers)
The goals may not be coming for Caufield, but the attempts are there every night. The matchup is only all right, but Caufield has cleared 3.5 shots on goals in tougher spots and I’m following a trend here. The Habs’ winger has at least four shots on goal in 19 of his last 23 games, and he’s only failed to pick up four shots in two of his last 16 games. Caufield had zero shots heading into the third period of his last game and he still ended up with four. That’s how quickly they can come for him, especially when Montreal gets on the power play.
Bonus
- Juraj Slafkovsky Point (+100, DraftKings)
- J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser Points SGP (-110, Bet365)
- Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes Points SGP (-120, Bet365)
- Caufield, Nick Suzuki Points SGP (+110, Bet365)
Evgeny Kuznetsov Point
(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I’d like to switch it up from Tuesday, but I see value here, and at the end of the day we’re trying to pick winners. Kuznetsov has points in four straight games and power play points in back-to-back games. He’s been fantastic since landing with the Hurricanes, and he’s still at a very good price to hit the score sheet. He only has 22 points in 50 games, but he has new life in Carolina and his new team is feeling it. The Hurricanes have won four straight and nine of 11. They’ve outscored their opponents 20-7 over their current winning streak and they have at least four goals in eight of their last 10 games. Flyers’ goalie Samuel Ersson has potentially hit a rookie wall as he’s coughed up at least three goals in three of his last four games. Philly has surrendered at least six goals in three of their last five games. Shoutout to Seth Jarvis who has goals in four straight and five of six.
Bonus
- Seth Jarvis Point (-130, DraftKings)
- Sebastian Aho & Jake Guentzel Points SGP (+105, Bet365)
- Kuznetsov, Andrei Svechnikov & Martin Necas Points SGP (+350, Bet365)
- Kuznetsov, Svechnikov & Necas 2 Points SGP (+5500, Bet365) 0.25 units
Frank Vatrano Over 3.5 SOG
(+135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Even though we have a few longshot bets I like in Tampa Bay, Vatrano is our long shot NHL prop of the day. Vatrano has already touched career highs in goals (29), points (50) and power play points (17) this season. His 221 shots are 10 away from what he had last season over 81 games, and he’s only played 69 this year. That’s right, Vatrano is averaging a career-high 3.3 shots per game over a career-best 18:17 ice time per game. Like most players, he’s averaging more ice time per game at home and he’s averaging 3.5 shots per game at the Honda Center compared to 2.8 on the road. He doesn’t have to worry about defensive matchups anyway with a date against the Chicago Blackhawks. Chicago ranks in the top five in shot attempts allowed over the past two months, and Vatrano has at least five shots on goal in three straight and five of his last six games.
Bonus
- Vatrano Point (-130, DraftKings)
- Connor Bedard Assist (+105, DraftKings)
- Bedard, Philipp Kurashev Points SGP (+115, Bet365)
- Bedard, Kurashev, Tyler Johnson 2 Points SGP (+2500, Bet365) 0.25 uints
Goal Scorers
Brayden Point
Anthony Duclair
Jake Guentzel
Leon Draisaitl
Brock Boeser
Bo Horvat
Jonathan Marchessault
Tyler Toffoli
Frank Vatrano
Cole Caufield
Carter Verhaeghe
Tim Stutzle
Jordan Kyrou
Tage Thompson
Tyler Johnson
PrizePicks
- Nikita Kucherov O 1.5 Points
- Brayden Point O 2.5 SOG
- Anthony Duclair Point
- Cole Caufield O 3.5 SOG
- Frank Vatrano O 3.5 SOG
- Steven Stamkos O 2.5 SOG
