Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have nine games on the NHL slate for Tuesday, so there’s plenty of action to be had on the ice.
Below you’ll see a link of today’s episode of Dangle Bet Celly where we discussed both games, highlighted some of the surprises in the NHL and talked about the best fantasy hockey pickups and who to drop.
The odds change pretty quickly in the NHL, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for all of my picks. October is the best month of the year for a sports fan and our FTN Bets package includes picks from everyone at FTN Network, across all sports.
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With our FTN Bets package, you’ll get picks from everyone at FTN Network, plus tools, projections and access to Discord, where I’ll discuss every slate.
This is a great night for SGP Point Parlays, so be sure to check out our FTN Bets Tracker for more! With our betting package you get all of our picks across all sports, plus access to our Discord channel and to our projections. Promo code Meaney will get you 10% off all packages at FTN.
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Be sure to check out Mean Streets for daily picks and Dangle Bet Celly for full NHL breakdowns each Tuesday and Thursday.
The Best NHL Props Bets
Matthew Tkachuk Over 1.5 Points
(+170, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This shouldn’t come as a shock, but I like a lot of props on the Florida Panthers as they have a date with the San Jose Sharks. I’m leading with Matthew Tkachuk to get two points, but there are safer plays listed below from this game. However, Tkachuk has 15 points in 14 games, he checks in riding a six-game point streak and he has at least two points in back-to-back games. The Sharks are allowing a league 38 shots at 5v5/60. They rank third in shot attempts, fourth in scoring chances and third in high danger chances allowed at 5v5/60, according to Natural Stat Trick. All of that has led to a league-worst 4.68 GA/60. On top of that, they’ve taken sixth most penalties and they have the fourth-lowest penalty kill percentage. On the flip side, Florida ranks fifth in shot attempts, seventh in shots, seventh in scoring chances and high danger chances. If anything, Florida should flirt with 35-plus shots in this game.
Bonus
- Matthew Tkachuk Assist (-125, BetMGM)
- Carter Verhaeghe Point (-150, DraftKings)
- Aleksander Barkov Assist (-120, BetMGM)
- Evan Rodrigues Point (-125, BetMGM)
- Sam Bennett Point (-125, BetMGM)
- Carter Verhaeghe O 3.5 SOG (+130, DraftKings)
- Sam Reinhart O 2.5 SOG (-130, DraftKings)
- Panthers -1.5 (+105, Bet365)
Below you’ll see a couple of long shot same game parlays to consider at Bet365. I have a 50-1 SGP in our Bet Tracker.
Mason McTavish Point
(-110, BetMGM)
This is the first game all season where Mason McTavish’s point prop isn’t plus money, but we still have a good price across the board according to our Prop Shop. McTavish has seven goals and 15 points in 14 games this season. He has points in nine of his last 11 games and 12 total over that span. He’s also racked up at least three shots on goal in seven of his past eight games, which includes 17 in his last four games. Juuse Saros enters with a 3.24 GAA and .894 SV%. He’s not this bad but he’s struggling at the moment, and he’s coughed up 18 goals in his past four games. It doesn’t help that the Preds have allowed the 10th-most shot attempts, third-most shots and 10th-most high danger chances at 5v5/60. They rank sixth in expected goals against and fourth in goals allowed at 5v5 per hour. Filip Forsberg’s shot prop is one of my favorite NHL props on the NHL slate as well. He has 20 shots on goal over his last five games and he’s among the leaders in shot attempts at 5v5. The Ducks are also in the top five in shots allowed at even strength and they’re tied for first in penalties taken.
Bonus
- Filip Forsberg O 3.5 SOG (-130, Bet365)
- Mason McTavish O 2.5 SOG (-105, DraftKings)
Matt Duchene Point
(-110, BetMGM)
Duchene has quietly been very impressive through his first 13 games with the Dallas Stars. He had a five-game point streak snapped Nov. 4 because he left early with an injury. He missed one game and returned Nov. 9, and he picked up where he left off with one goal and three points. He started a new point streak as he enters tonight’s matchup at home against Arizona with points in three straight and six total over that span. He has goals in three straight games as well. Overall, Duchene has registered at least one point in eight straight games he’s finished. He may not get a point tonight, but he’s been very good to us and the price has been great all season long, so have him on your radar when the Stars play. Arizona ranks third in scoring chances and fourth in high danger chances allowed at 5v5/60.
Bonus
- Matt Duchene O 2.5 SOG (+130, DraftKings)
- Roope Hintz O 2.5 SOG (-125, DraftKings)
- Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski Points (+180, Bet365)
Goal Scorers
Carter Verhaeghe
Sam Reinhart
Filip Forsberg
Kyle Connor
David Pastrnak
Jake Guentzel
Jonathan Marchessault
Mason McTavish
Matt Duchene
Brayden Point
Jordan Kyrou
Nazem Kadri
Sean Monahan
PrizePicks
- Evan Rodrigues Point
- Sam Bennett Point
- Mason McTavish Point
- Matt Duchene Point
- Mason McTavish O 2.5 SOG
- Roope Hintz O 2.5 SOG
- Jonathan Marchessault O 2.5 SOG
- Sam Reinhart O 2.5 SOG
