Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are eight evening NHL games included in the featured DFS contests Tuesday, and five are significant mismatches. The Lightning, Flyers, Hurricanes, Capitals and Maple Leafs are all huge favorites. Florida and Boston are receiving road chalk, and Dallas is a short home favorite.
Here’s a game-by-game, quick-hit primer to help your Tuesday lineup decisions.
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Boston Bruins (-117) at New York Islanders
The Islanders have only lost once in regulation through the past 16 games and have won five straight with just seven goals allowed and a plus-12 goal differential. New York’s also beaten Boston twice during the stretch. Additionally, and somewhat quietly, the Islanders now rank fourth in goals per game while allowing the third fewest. For our DFS purposes, though, it’s been tough to pin down their scorers. Mathew Brazal is the only Islander over 20 points, and Anders Lee is the only one with double-digit goals. New York’s goaltending has been outstanding with Semyon Varlamov sporting an 11-4-3 record with a .926 save percentage and 2.10 GAA, whereas Ilya Sorokin has won four straight with .952 and 1.00 marks.
Boston enters this contest in a bit of a, lull with just three wins through its past nine games, but the No. 1 line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak continues to dominate with 6.08 goals per 60 minutes during the stretch. The recent surge is in line with their 6.19 mark dating back to the beginning of the 2018-19 campaign. No. 1 defenseman Charlie McAvoy has also chipped in two tallies and four helpers during the stretch, so his production hasn’t dipped much, either. Jarsolav Halak will start for the Bruins on Tuesday. Tuukka Rask (back) is considered questionable to even dress for tonight’s game after feeling back discomfort following Sunday’s contest. Halak has a respectable .913 save percentage and 2.24 GAA through eight games this season, but he was also in net for the 7-2 drubbing the Islanders handed Boston in late February.
Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers (-235)
The Sabres have lost six straight games and scored just eight goals during the stretch to drop to a league-low 1.44 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Buffalo’s power play has remained dangerous with a third-ranked 29.7 percentage, though. It’s definitely worth noting that the Sabres loaded up their No. 1 line with rookie Dyaln Cozens joining Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall, but the trio surrendered five high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five to the Islanders during Sunday’s 5-2 loss. Eichel and Hall collected an assist on Colin Miller’s third-period goal, though. Hall and Eichel have combined for just four goals all season — it’s almost impossible to shoot 121 times and only score four times (3.3 shooting percentage).
Philadelphia is 4-4-1 since returning from a week layoff due to COVID-19 protocols, but with Buffalo’s struggles in mind, it’s no surprise the Flyers are huge favorites Tuesday. The Flyers’ up-and-down play shouldn’t be overly surprising given the numbers of injuries they’ve dealt with over the past month. Currently, though, Morgan Frost (wrist) is the only regular out of the lineup. Philadelphia now boasts a deep and balanced lineup, and netminder Carter Hart recorded a shutout in his last start against the Sabres. Finally, the Sean Couturier–James van Riemsdyk–Joel Farabee line is of particular interest because of their 5.72 goals per 60 minutes this season, and they also skate together with the man advantage.
New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals (-190)
This should prove to be another mismatch going in Washington’s favor, as the Capitals have already beaten the Devils three times during their current 8-2-1 stretch. New Jersey, on the other hand, has only won twice through its past 10 games. Additionally, before shutting out Boston with a 1-0 win Sunday, the Devils had surrendered 12 goals during a two-game series against the Rangers. New Jersey’s 65.1 penalty-kill percentage ranks last in the league, and the Devils are surrendering a healthy 3.05 goals per game for the campaign.
With the exception of Tom Wilson serving a suspension, Washington will have all its regulars in the lineup Tuesday. Wilson’s spot in the top six is projected to be filled by Daniel Sprong, and he’s a low-salary target in DFS. He’s been a fringe NHLer for most of his short career, but it isn’t because of his offensive upside. Additionally, as noted, Washington’s seventh-ranked power play is positioned for success. Alex Ovechkin, in particular, has statistical correction ahead in the goals column. He’s scored three times — just once on the power play — with a 6.4% shooting percentage through the past 12 games, after all.
Nashville Predators at Carolina Hurricanes (-200)
The Hurricanes have rolled off five consecutive wins and are second in the competitive Central Division, whereas Nashville has only won once in its past four games and ranks sixth. The Predators have scored the fourth fewest goals per game, allowed the fifth most and sport a 29th-ranked 70.2% penalty-kill percentage, so things haven’t gone as planned after numerous offseason lineup moves. Interestingly, Nashville has attempted the third-most five-on-five shots per 60 minutes in the league, but only 9.54 have translated into high-danger scoring chances, which ranks 19th. The Preds are also likely to be without Matt Duchene (lower body), Luke Kunin (lower body) and Ryan Ellis (upper body), and all three are expected out long term, which is a huge blow.
Carolina has been generating plenty of high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five ranking second in the league, and the Hurricanes have also scored the fourth most goals per game overall. Additionally, Carolina’s power-play percentage (29.5%) ranks fourth in the league, so there’s a significant offensive advantage tilting in the Hurricanes’ direction. Unlike Nashville, the Hurricanes are also mostly healthy. Petr Mrazek (thumb) is nearing a return to the crease, and Teuvo Teravainen (upper body) is questionable to play Tuesday after missing Sunday’s contest. It all adds up to Carolina landing in a favorable schedule spot, as highlighted by the odds, but it’s probably best to stick to the proven producers: Sebastian Aho, Vincent Trocheck, Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal, Martin Necas and Dougie Hamilton. Just note, there are more mini-stack opportunities than attractive three- or four-player combos.
Florida Panthers (-130) at Columbus Blue Jackets
On paper, these should be relatively even teams, and they could easily be close in the standings at season’s end. Florida has probably overachieved to a degree to this point, and Columbus has probably underachieved. Florida’s 101.1 PDO at five-on-five, and Columbus’ 99.3 mark reinforces there is likely slight statistical correction ahead for both teams. Most notably for the Blue Jackets is that after allowing just 2.11 five-on-five goals per 60 minutes last year (fifth fewest in the league), they’ve surrendered the seventh most (2.62) this season. Add a 24th-ranked 74.2 penalty-kill percentage and 10th-worst .913 team save percentage at five-on-five and team defense has been a major reason for Columbus sitting well out of a playoff position.
The Panthers have been extremely competitive with just five regulation losses through 24 games, and they’ve also been especially good on the road with an 8-2-1 record. Additionally, unlike Columbus, Florida has been solid defensively with the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes allowed and fourth best team save percentage at five-on-five. No. 1 netminder Sergei Bobrovsky has also quietly been rounding into form with a 3-1-1 record, .921 save percentage and 2.58 GAA through his past five starts. It’s also worth noting that streaky scorer Frank Vatrano is projected to skate with Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe on the No. 1 line, and Vatrano has scored four goals and added an assist through his past six games.
Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs (-177)
A tape-measuring matchup between two of the best teams in the North Division, both teams enter following a loss, and in Toronto’s case consecutive defeats. This will be just the second meeting of the season with the first coming all the way back on Jan. 18 — a 3-1 victory for Toronto. It should prove to be a close matchup with both teams healthy and boasting solid offenses and goaltending. The one notable mismatch is the Jets allowing the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five (12.11), and Toronto surrendering a middle-of-the-pack 10.16. Otherwise, the two clubs rank relatively similarly in most notable statistics.
Considering the offensive firepower in this contest, look to both teams' top-six lines and defensemen Morgan Rielly, Neal Pionk and Josh Morrissey are all in play. It’s one of the few games with a 6.5 over/under total, so expect plenty of the top scorers from both teams to be popular targets. It’s worth noting that both top centers, Mark Scheifele and Auston Matthews, have positive regression ahead in the goals column. Scheifele hasn’t scored in five games, but still offers an extremely high fantasy floor, as he’s found the scoresheet in 20 of 24 games this season. Matthews, on the other hand, also hasn’t scored through his past five outings despite registering 22 shots. Additionally, he hasn’t even recorded a point through three games since returning from his wrist/hand injury.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-345) at Detroit Red Wings
This is a first vs. worst battle, and Tampa Bay deserves to be significant favorites. The Red Wings have lost three straight games with 16 goals against, and Detroit has surrendered the second most goals per game with the second-worst penalty-kill percentage. It’s also been a disaster offensively, as Detroit has also scored the fewest goals per game this year, and No. 1 center Dylan Larkin (upper body) is uncertain for Tuesday’s contest. It all adds up for a ripe opportunity for Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy to turn in another dominant showing. He currently sports an elite 15-3-1 record, .939 save percentage and 1.73 GAA.
Turning to Tampa Bay’s offense, the Bolts shook their lines up Sunday with Yanni Gourde skating between Alex Killorn and Steven Stamkos, and Brayden Point centering Ondrej Palat and Anthony Cirelli. Regardless of the combos, the Lightning top six will be dangerous and popular Tuesday, so just check in on their projected trios ahead of puck drop. On the blueline, Victor Hedman continues to post impressive numbers. He’s rolling along a four-game point streak and is up to five tallies, 19 helpers and 14 power-play points for the campaign.
Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars (-134)
The Blackhawks have traded wins and losses through their past five games but remained locked into fourth place in the Central Division with a 13-8-5 record. Dallas, meanwhile, is crashing along a 2-7-4 stretch with just 24 total goals. In addition to being without Tyler Seguin (hip) and Alexander Radulov (lower body), the Stars could also be missing Roope Hintz (lower body) and John Klingberg (personal) on Tuesday, so the offensive attack will be all the more up against it. The Stars are down to 1.88 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five — third fewest in the league.
While injuries are also having an impact on the Blackhawks, superstar Patrick Kane continues to lead the way and carry the team. He’s up to 11 tallies, 27 helpers and 12 power-play points through 26 contests this season, and he’s only missed the scoresheet six times all year. Linemate Alex DeBrincat is also scorching hot with 14 goals and 14 assists through 22 games, and power-play quarterback Adam Boqvist remains a value target with seven points through his past eight contests. As noted, this also sets up as a favorable matchup for Chicago’s starting netminder, and both Kevin Lankinen and Malcolm Subban are reasonably priced.
