MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
There are six NHL games Monday, and the Senators are the only significant underdog and are playing their second road game in consecutive nights. The Avalanche, Blues and Canadiens are all sizable favorites with Minnesota and Anaheim small home underdogs. DFS players will want to note that the two North Division games have the highest over/under totals with the Blues-Sharks matchup also having a 6.5 total to consider targeting.
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Vegas Golden Knights (-113) at Minnesota Wild
This will be an interesting matchup. The Wild are solid at five-on-five surrendering the sixth-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five while generating the most. It’s turned into a plus-13 goal differential. However, Minnesota’s power-play percentage (6.9) ranks last. Obviously, there’s positive regression ahead with the man advantage, but it’s not guaranteed Monday. The Golden Knights own the third-best penalty-kill percentage (87.7) in the league. Additionally, Vegas has surrendered the second-fewest goals per game in the league, so Minnesota could struggle to score. Vegas starter Marc-Andre Fleury also boasts an elite 12-3 record, .942 save percentage and 1.60 GAA for the campaign.
Still, the Wild are on an impressive 7-2-1 run with consistent offensive production from Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno, Kirill Kaprizov, Jordan Greenway and Kevin Fiala. Vegas has been even better with an active 11-3 stretch, which includes a recent two-game sweep of Minnesota. It will be important to check on the statuses of Mark Stone (undisclosed) and Alex Pietrangelo (undisclosed) after both sustained injuries in Saturday’s win. If both or either misses Monday’s contest, it would definitely make life easier for the Wild.
Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers (-230)
The Senators held on for a 4-3 shootout win over the Calgary Flames on Sunday, so this is the second game in consecutive nights for Ottawa. As a result, it’s not surprising to see Edmonton listed as the largest favorite on the docket. Additionally, the Oilers scored 12 goals through their first two meetings of the season and have won 12 of their past 17 games – and 12 of 14 if you don’t count their recent three losses to Toronto. While Edmonton’s goals per game (3.19) took a downturn because of their poor showing during the noted three-game series against the Maple Leafs, the Senators have surrendered the most goals per game in the league, so it remains a plus-matchup for the Oilers offense.
Ottawa has still been a pesky opponent of late, though. The Sens enter with an active 7-5 record and are allowing just 9.52 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes five-on-five, which is a significant downtick from their 11.45 mark over the first 15 games of the campaign. Edmonton should still have a strong showing, and Conor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl might see more looks together at even strength after skating together during Sunday’s practice. Edmonton starter Mike Smith is also a strong lean. Even with his two recent dudes against Toronto, Smith boasts a rock-solid .925 save percentage and 2.30 GAA. Expect Oilers to be popular DFS targets Monday.
Arizona Coyotes at Colorado Avalanche (-186)
The Avalanche are another team dealing with multiple injuries to key players, as Nathan MacKinnon (upper body), Cale Makar (upper body), J.T. Compher (upper body) and Bowen Byram (upper body) have all missed time and are either already ruled out or questionable for Monday. Colorado still enters on an active 4-1-1 stretch, and Nazem Kadri, in particular, has stepped up with a goal and seven assists during the noted six-game span. Additionally, if Makar misses Monday’s contest, look for Samuel Girard to have extra opportunities to stay hot. Girard has collected six points – two goals – over the past five games. It’s also worth reinforcing that Colorado sports the best Corsi For percentage and sixth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league while allowing the sixth-fewest goals per game, so even if the injuries are mounting, this is by no means a layup matchup for Arizona.
Turning to the Coyotes, it would be difficult to find a more middling team. They enter Monday with an active 5-5-2 record and two points out of a playoff position. Additionally, Arizona has generated and allowed 10.9 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and its power-play percentage ranks 17th and penalty-kill percentage eighth. The Coyotes definitely received a boost from Darcy Kuemper’s return, as he boasts a career .922 save percentage and 2.39 GAA through 111 games with Arizona. However, offensively, it’s hard to pin down the Coyotes. Conor Garland has been the only consistent contributor with 22 points – eight goals – through 23 games, but he’s also missed the scoresheet in eight games, so there’s a degree of hit or miss.
St. Louis Blue (-159) at San Jose Sharks
The Sharks have lost five of their past six games, including three straight. Additionally, San Jose has surrendered the second-most goals per game while allowing the third most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Goaltending has also been a significant shortcoming for the Sharks, as their five-on-five team save percentage ranks second-last in the league. There have been signs offensively, though, and San Jose has scored 11 goals through its past two meetings with the Blues. St. Louis will be without its No. 1 defenseman Colton Parayko (back) again Monday, too. The Blues also sport a 25th-ranked 74.1 penalty-kill percentage – the lowest of any team in action Monday.
St. Louis’ big news was the return of Vladamir Tarasenko on Saturday. He logged 16:25 of ice time and registered four shots without registering a point. He’s projected to skate with Ryan O'Reilly and Jordan Kyrou again Monday, and the trio boasts considerable upside. The Blues are still missing six regulars, though, so the team is far from being at full strength. Tarasenko’s return should help the No. 1 power-play unit, as he collected 102 power-play points over his previous five full seasons (2014-15 through 2018-19). It’s probably worth issuing a fade recommendation for St. Louis netminder Jordan Binnington, too. He’s in poor form with a 1-3-1 record, .881 save percentage and 3.55 GAA through his past six appearances.
Montreal Canadiens (-156) at Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks are ripe for a letdown showing after beating Toronto in consecutive games despite allowing more shot attempts and high-danger scoring chances. Remember, too, Vancouver was on a 3-10-2 stretch before handling the Maple Leafs in consecutive games. One of the most notable turnarounds for the Canucks has been netminder Thatcher Demko’s play. He’s won three of his past four starts with a .962 save percentage and 1.26 GAA. No. 1 center Elias Pettersson (upper body) could return for Vancouver, too, so keep tabs on his status ahead of puck drop.
The Canadiens are coming off a dominant 7-1 win over Winnipeg and have now won two of their past three contests. Montreal has scored the second-most goals and generated the fourth-most high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five while also sporting the second-best Corsi For percentage in the league. In comparison, Vancouver has allowed the third-most goals, second-most high-danger scoring chances and ranks 22nd in Corsi For percentage. Montreal should be in a good position to have a strong showing Monday, especially with goalie Carey Price stopping 54 of 64 shots in consecutive wins. As always, the struggle with the Canadiens is deciding who to target from the top-nine forward group.
Los Angeles Kings (-124) at Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim snapped a nine-game losing streak with a 5-4 overtime win against the injury-depleted Avalanche on Saturday, so the Ducks aren’t exactly entering Monday’s tilt in good form. No. 1 netminder John Gibson has allowed three goals or more in each of his past eight starts – all losses – with a discouraging .876 save percentage and 3.53 GAA. It’s not much better offensively, either. Anaheim has scored the second-fewest goals per game, sports a 28th-ranked 13.6 power-play percentage and doesn't have a player inside the top-100 point producers in the league.
While Los Angeles isn’t significantly better, the Kings are competitive in the West Division with a 10-8-5 record and recently rolled off a six-game winning streak. Additionally, the Kings have been better defensively for a while and are down to 2.23 goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five – 11th fewest in the league. Los Angeles’ goaltending has also been sound with Jonathan Quick sporting a 4-2 record, .931 save percentage and 1.82 GAA over his past six starts, and Cal Petersen boasting 3-0-2, .923 and 2.36 marks through his latest five games. Offensively, Anze Kopitar continues to lead the way, but the second line of Gabriel Vilardi, Jeff Carter and Andreas Athanasiou has also been excellent with 3.68 goals and 17.55 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes this season.
