NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
There’s a busy 12-game slate in the NHL Saturday, but most DFS sites are only including the eight evening games beginning at 7 p.m. EST in their featured contests. The Avalanche, Golden Knights and Maple Leafs are the largest favorites on the docket, and it’s also worth noting that half of Saturday’s evening contests are rematches from Friday: Wild-Coyotes, Ducks-Avalanche, Blues-Kings and Golden Knights-Sharks.
As we’ve become accustomed to, the three highest over/under totals are from the North Division matchups.
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Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens (-140)
These two teams are headed in opposite directions, with Winnipeg winners of seven of their past nine games and Montreal sporting an active 2-4-4 record. The Canadiens have had a bit of tough puck luck, as they’ve dominated five-on-five possession with a 58.6 Corsi For percentage but sport an unsustainably low 6.1% shooting percentage. Statistical correction is likely moving forward, but goaltending has also been a serious problem. Supposed No. 1 Carey Price owns a discouraging .893 save percentage and 2.97 GAA for the campaign, and while No. 2 Jake Allen has been better overall this season, the backup has lost four straight games with an .898 save percentage, though.
Both teams are projected to roll out the same lines as Thursday’s game when Winnipeg topped Montreal 4-3 in overtime. The Canadiens had more shot attempts, but the Jets had more high-danger chances, and it’s safe to say Winnipeg netminder Connor Hellebuyck outplayed Montreal starter Jake Allen. The Habs will likely start Price Saturday, and he’s coming off a tidy 26-save, 3-1 win over Ottawa. For Winnipeg, it’s hard not to continue pounding the table for Mark Scheifele. He’s up to 32 points — 11 goals — through 23 games and has only missed the scoresheet four times all season.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-195) at Vancouver Canucks
While Vancouver took care of the Maple Leafs 3-1 Thursday, Toronto won the five-on-five possession battle and generated seven more high-danger scoring chances despite it being a back-to-back spot and the third road game in four nights. Still, Vancouver was without center Elias Pettersson (undisclosed), and a win is a win, after all. Pettersson’s status for Saturday’s rematch is still uncertain, but his absence would be significant. Toronto is a huge favorite and positioned to rebound following a loss in a letdown spot Thursday.
It’s definitely worth noting that Auston Matthews has failed to mark the scoresheet through two games since returning from his wrist/hand injury. However, he’s registered 12 shots and attempted 18, so there’s little concern. Additionally, after playing with multiple regulars injured, Wayne Simmonds (wrist) and backup Jack Campbell (lower body) are the only Maple Leafs unavailable Saturday. It should prove to be a favorable matchup for the Toronto offense with Vancouver allowing the third-most goals per game and most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league.
Minnesota Wild (-140) at Arizona Coyotes
The Wild are on an impressive run since having a mini-layoff due to COVID-19 protocols with a 7-2-1 record, including a 5-1 win over the Coyotes Friday. In particular, Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno and Kirill Kaprizov have all produced at a point-per-game pace or better during the noted 10-game stretch. Add solid numbers from Kevin Fiala, Jordan Greenway and Victor Rask, and all of a sudden, Minnesota has a solid offensive core. As hammered home in this space, the Wild have been excellent at five-on-five with the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes and the fourth-fewest allowed. The Minnesota power play is another story, though. Minny’s 7.1% power-play percentage ranks last in the league.
Arizona should receive a boost with the expected return of Darcy Kuemper (lower body) to the crease Saturday. After all, the 30-year-old netminder boasts a high-end .922 save percentage and 2.39 GAA through 110 starts with the Coyotes. Offensively, the Coyotes continue to shuffle their lines, and considering how well Minnesota has played defensively this season — 2.27 goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five and a sixth-ranked 83.8 penalty-kill percentage — it isn’t out of the question to look past Arizona’s skaters Saturday.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars (-137)
It’s becoming easier and easier to handicap the Stars, as they enter Saturday’s contest with an active 2-8-4 record and horrible offensive numbers: 1.72 goals per 60 minutes and a 6.4 shooting percentage at five-on-five. There’s obviously positive regression ahead of the low shooting percentage, but Dallas also doesn’t boast many prolific scorers, and eight of the Stars 17 power-play goals came in the first two games of the season. Missing Tyler Seguin (hip) and Alexander Radulov (lower body) is certainly taking a toll, and it’s also worth noting that Roope Hintz (lower body) is also questionable for Saturday after missing Thursday’s game.
Columbus isn’t much better than the Stars, though. The Blue Jackets have won two straight, but they’re still sporting an active 3-5-2 record and quickly falling out of playoff contention. Columbus has the worst Corsi For percentage in the league while also generating the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. Add allowing the ninth most goals per game, sporting the 24th-ranked power-play percentage and 26th-ranked penalty-kill percentage, and it’s a little surprising head coach John Tortorella still has a job.
Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche (-225)
Colorado ran all over Anaheim Friday with 21 more shot attempts at five-on-five and 11 total high-danger scoring chances. However, the Ducks hung around and the Avalanche needed overtime to win 3-2. The absences of Nathan MacKinnon (upper body) and Cale Makar (upper body) cannot be understated, so another close game isn’t out of the question — even with Colorado one of the largest favorites on Saturday’s docket. Avalanche center Nazem Kadri and defenseman Samuel Girard are receiving heightened minutes in place of MacKinnon and Makar, and both are viable DFS options Saturday. Additionally, backup goaltender Hunter Miska could be a low-salary flier to consider.
The Ducks bring little to the table offensively. Anaheim ranks last in the league in goals per game and second last in power-play percentage, after all. It’s also a daunting matchup with Colorado owning the best Corsi For percentage and penalty-kill percentage in the league. In a deep player pool, turning to Ducks as anything more than desperation fliers is probably asking too much. After all, Colorado is the largest favorite on the docket.
St. Louis Blues (-136) at Los Angeles Kings
The Blues topped the Kings 3-2 in overtime Friday to extend their winning streak to four games, and it’s all the more impressive considering they’re without seven regulars. Los Angeles, on the other hand, is at full health. The Kings are also on an incredible month-long stretch. They lost five straight, then won six in a row, and now LA is sporting a four-game losing streak. However, the peaks and valleys probably shouldn’t be that surprising given the lack of talent on the roster. It all adds up to St. Louis starter Jordan Binnington being an interesting target after turning in a 27-save win last time out.
Up front for Los Angeles, the second line of Gabriel Vilardi, Jeff Carter and Andreas Athanasiou has been solid. They’ve clicked for 4.51 goals and 18.96 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes and also generated four high-danger scoring chances in Friday’s loss. St. Louis has been shuffling its lines of late, but if Brayden Schenn, David Perron and Mike Hoffman stick together Saturday, they’re also an intriguing trio.
Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers (-125)
This should be a particularly fun edition of the Battle of Alberta. The Oilers are fresh off a disastrous — and winless — three-game series against the Maple Leafs, and Calgary has only won three of its past nine games. Both teams are nearing their own desperation points, and while Edmonton is unlikely to fall out of a playoff position, curbing the current slide will ensure it. Calgary, however, could quickly fall out of the playoff picture without a strong stretch. Luckily, the Flames just got Jacob Markstrom back from injured reserve. He’ll be making his first start since allowing five goals to Edmonton Feb. 20, though.
Edmonton superstars Conor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were held to just a single assist through the past three games, so a breakout showing from both is definitely in play. Additionally, the Oilers recently reunited Draisaitl with wingers Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and the trio has been excellent over the past two years with a high-end 5.77 goals per 60 minutes. Calgary should see the best version of the Oilers on Saturday, so with the Flames scoring just 2.37 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and sporting a 16th-ranked 21.4 power-play percentage, it might not be the best spot to load up too many Flames. It’s probably more of a contrarian spot for Calgary.
Vegas Golden Knights (-200) at San Jose Sharks
The Golden Knights pulled off a 5-4 overtime win against the Sharks on Friday to extend their winning streak to five games and improve to a 15-4-1 record for the campaign, including a dominant 10-2-1 on home ice. Vegas also boasts an impressive plus-21 goal differential while allowing just 2.17 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and sporting a fourth-ranked 87.5% penalty-kill percentage. The Golden Knights have also scored the sixth most goals per game in the league. So, with San Jose allowing the second most goals per game in the league, this checks out as a favorable matchup for Vegas.
Additionally, goaltending should prove to be a huge mismatch Saturday. Golden Knights’ starter Marc-Andre Fleury boasts an elite .939 save percentage and 1.71 GAA for the campaign, whereas San Jose netminder Martin Jones sports underwhelming .879 and 3.84 marks. During Vegas’ noted five-game winning streak, seven Golden Knights have at least four points: Mark Stone, William Karlsson, Max Pacioretty, Alex Tuch, Nicolas Hague, Chandler Stephenson and Alex Pietrangelo. Perhaps more impressive, though, every Golden Knight who has suited up for all five wins has found the scoresheet. It does make it a little difficult to pinpoint an individual line to stack, but you should still expect Vegas skaters and Fleury to be popular DFS targets Saturday.
