Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a jam-packed 10-game DFS slate in the NHL Thursday, so it’s an incredibly deep player pool. The largest favorite on the docket are the Hurricanes, followed by the Lightning, Islanders, Flames and Maple Leafs. Toronto is the only team playing its second game in consecutive nights, and the Maple Leafs-Canucks and Flyers-Penguins tilts have the highest over/under totals on the docket.
Here’s your quick-hit primer for DFS and seasonal lineups.
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Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes (-315)
After a two-game winning streak, the Red Wings have now lost consecutive games with a minus-8 goal differential. Detroit has attempted the fewest shots per 60 minutes, and Carolina has attempted the fifth most. Additionally, the Red Wings have surrendered the fourth most goals per game while scoring the second fewest. Carolina has also won three straight games and sports a 6-1-1 record on home ice, so it’s no surprise the Hurricanes are huge favorites. Adding insult to injury, Detroit captain Dylan Larkin (upper body) has already been ruled out.
Even with the plus-matchup, the Hurricanes are tough to pindown for DFS purposes. They boast a balanced scoring attack with nine players registering double-digit points through the past 16 games dating back to the beginning of February. Additionally, Carolina has been line juggling frequently from game to game, and the Hurricanes have spread out their best players across their top three lines. Still, Sebastian Aho, Vincent Trocheck, Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov are probably the best targets. In goal, Alex Nedeljkovic has a .959 save percentage through his past three straights, and James Reimer has also won two straight with a .928 mark. The Carolina starter is definitely in play.
Philadelphia Flyers (-124) at Pittsburgh Penguins
Even with Sidney Crosby on COVID-19 protocol the Penguins topped Philadelphia 5-2 Tuesday, and Pittsburgh appears to be turning the corner with an active 7-3 record. It would seem difficult for Pittsburgh to make it two in a row without Crosby, though. Philadelphia has scored the second-most goals per 60 minutes in the league at five-on-five this season, and the Flyers are also icing a healthy team for the first time in weeks. In addition to Crosby, the Penguins are also without Jason Zucker (lower body), which leaves their offensive without two top-six forwards.
The Flyers attempted 52 five-on-five shots and 13 high-danger scoring chances to Pittsburgh’s 34 and 10 in Tuesday’s loss, and netminder Tristan Jarry turned away 40 shots for his fifth victory in his past six starts. After a horrible start, Jarry might be one of the main reasons the Penguins are winning more games. Pittsburgh’s five-on-five team save percentage is still eighth lowest in the league, and the Penguins also have the eighth worst 74.2 penalty-kill percentage. It probably all adds up to Jarry needing to turn in another monster showing for the Penguins to win.
Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens (-155)
The Canadiens snapped a five-game losing streak with a 3-1 win over Ottawa Tuesday, and the Jets also won Tuesday to improve to an active 9-4 record, including two victories over the Canadiens. Winnipeg also continues to receive high-end production from its best players, and Mark Scheifele is leading the way with seven tallies and 12 helpers through the noted 13-game stretch. It’s just important to note that the Jets have been mixing and matching their lines a lot, and sometimes throughout the game, so full-line stacks carry a little bit of risk.
Turning back to Montreal, the Canadiens are playing high-end hockey at five-on-five with a second-ranked Corsi For percentage while scoring the fifth-most goals and allowing the second fewest per 60 minutes. It could prove to be a slight mismatch because the Jets have surrendered the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Additionally, turning onto narrative street, Montreal netminder Carey Price had been putting in a lot of extra time with former goaltending coach Stephane Waite, and then Waite was replaced by Sean Burke on Tuesday. Price is coming off a win and has a history of bouncing back from poor stretches.
New York Rangers (-118) at New Jersey Devils
This sets up as a low-scoring game with New York and New Jersey ranking 23rd and 27th in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season, respectively. The Rangers are entering the matchup in good form with an active 4-2 record, which is admirable considering they’ve been without two of their best players: Artemi Panarin (personal) and Jacob Trouba (thumb). The Devils are slumping with losses in six of the past seven games, and center Nico Hischier’s (face) status is also in question for Thursday.
The Devils sport the worst penalty-kill percentage (63.0%) in the league, so New York should have opportunities with the man advantage. The Rangers also probably have some positive regression ahead on the power play, as they’ve generated the seventh most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes but own the ninth lowest team shooting percentage. It’s also worth noting that Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich and Alexis Lafreniere combined for two goals and three assists in Tuesday’s win over Buffalo.
Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders (-195)
The Sabres are an absolute mess with four consecutive losses and an active 2-7-1 record with just 16 goals scored. Making matters worse, Buffalo’s four highest-paid players — Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner, Taylor Hall and Kyle Okposo — have also combined for just four goals all season. Perhaps even more puzzling, though, is that the Sabres have the third-best power-play percentage in the league. Eventually, Eichel and Hall are going to breakout, but this probably isn’t the matchup to target them in.
The Islanders are rolling along a 9-2-2 stretch and allowing just 1.92 goals per game. Additionally, netminders Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin are both playing excellent of late with a combined .942 save percentage at five-on-five during the noted 13-game run. New York also sports an eighth-tanked 82.8 penalty-kill percentage. Offensively, the Islanders don’t boast many target-worthy options and feature more of a balanced scoring attack. Even as huge favorites, it’s risky to load up a line stack to roll out.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-210) at Chicago Blackhawks
This is a tape-measure matchup for Chicago. The Blackhawks are hanging around playoff contention in the Central Division with a 12-7-4 record and have only lost in regulation four times through their past 19 games. Obviously, the Lightning are the class of the division with a 15-4-1 record, including five consecutive wins and three shutouts. Tampa Bay has also scored the most goals and allowed the fewest per game in the league this season. Turning back to the Blackhawks, they’re being carried by Patrick Kane, as the American winger has piled up eight goals and 19 assists through his past 15 games. This will be a telling matchup for Kane, though.
The Lightning won the first two games of the season against Chicago by a combined 10-3 score, and Tampa Bay is icing a healthy lineup, so the Blackhawks being a huge home underdog isn’t surprising. While Tampa Bay’s top two lines are both in play, turning to Victor Hedman is also an option. He’s logging a career-high 25:19 per game with 3:26 on the power-play and has produced at a point-per-game pace with four tallies, 16 helpers and 11 power-play points. Additionally, as the power-play quarterback of the No. 1 unit, Hedman is positioned for success with Chicago sporting a23rd-ranked 75.0 penalty-kill percentage. Finally, Andrei Vasilevskiy has turned in three consecutive shutouts and is now sporting an otherworldly 13-3-1 record, .942 save percentage and 1.65 GAA.
Florida Panthers (-136) at Nashville Predators
Florida lost its past two games in extra time to the Hurricanes and dropped to third place in the competitive Central Division, and a quick look at the Predators game log showcases only three wins against teams with a winning record. Florida has been excellent defensively with the fewest high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes and fifth best team save percentage at five-on-five. With Nashville scoring the fewest goals per game in the league, it doesn’t set up as a favorable offensive matchup for the Predators. Nashville’s center Ryan Johansen is also currently in the COVID-19 protocols, and his status is unknown for Thursday’s game.
It’s worth noting that Nashville’s 71.2% penalty-kill percentage ranks third last in the league, so Florida should have quality opportunities with the man advantage. It sets up as a potential breakout spot for Jonathan Huberdeau. After a torrid start, the 27-year-old winger has been held to a single goal and assist through his past six games. Aleksander Barkov and Keith Yandle are also sound options from the Panthers. Florida netminder Chris Drieger is 7-2-2 with a .926 save percentage and 2.25 GAA for the campaign and would be a solid lean if starting. Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been as sharp with 6-2-2, .899 and 3.02 marks, but he would also be worth considering Nashville’s offensive struggles.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars (-157)
The Blue Jackets snapped a five-game losing streak last time out with a 4-1 win over Detroit, but they remain five points out of a playoff position. Columbus’ 3-6-2 road record is also an eyesore. Dallas, on the other hand, has played a league-low 17 games and is difficult to handicap because of all the schedule breaks. The Stars have been respectable defensively with the 10th-fewest goals allowed per game and the sixth-fewest high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes at five-on-five. However, they’re not scoring a lot, either. During their current 1-4 stretch, the Stars have only scored six times.
Columbus could be just the matchup Dallas needs to kick-start its offense, though. The Blue Jackets sport the fourth-lowest penalty-kill percentage (72.7) in the league and have surrendered the fifth-most goals per hour at five-on-five. Offensively for the Blue Jackets, it’s tough to view their No. 1 line as anything but a high-risk, high-reward trio. Patrik Laine hasn’t found the scoresheet in four games, and Jack Roslovic has missed it in five of his past nine outings. Additionally, while Cam Atkinson has been excellent with eight tallies and six helpers through his past 11 outings, his 20.5% shooting percentage during the surge is eyeing slight negative regression.
Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames (-195)
The Senators won two of three games against Calgary in their recent miniseries, and the real story was Drake Batherson’s offensive outburst and budding connection with 2020 first-round selection Tim Stutzle. The duo connected for four goals and five assists during the series and are up to a respectable 3.67 goals and 12.54 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes for the campaign. Center Josh Norris is projected to skate between the two wingers Thursday, and the trio is a potential stack option. Additionally, No. 1 defenseman Thomas Chabot has recorded six assists, 13 shots and eight blocks through the past five games, and he’s logging an incredible 25:32 of ice time per game this season, including 3:59 with the man advantage.
The Senators remain a favorable matchup for opponents with a league-high 3.8 goals against per game and a 26th-ranked 73.4% penalty-kill percentage. However, the Flames have only scored more than three goals once in their past eight games, and they rank seventh last in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five with the fifth fewest scored overall. Top scorers Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm have combined for a single goal and just six assists during the noted eight-game stretch. There’s obviously statistical correction ahead, but it could be risky loading up Flames given their current form and the depth of Thursday’s player pool.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-159) at Vancouver Canucks
This is a definite trap game for the Maple Leafs after their three-game sweep over the Oilers, in which they limited Edmonton to a single goal and won each game handedly. Additionally, this will be Toronto’s four consecutive road game and third in four nights. Still, the Maple Leafs are favorites, sporting a league best 18-4-2 record while sitting second in goals and fourth in goals against per game. Add Toronto’s second-ranked 31.9% power-play percentage, and even with the poor set up, expect the Canucks to have trouble slowing down the Maple Leafs. After all, the Canucks have allowed the most goals (53 and 3.53 per game) in the league since Feb. 1.
As poorly as Vancouver has played, Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser continue to move the needle offensively with 5.9 goals and 15.61 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes this season. Power-play quarterback Quinn Hughes is also leading all blueliners with 22 points. With his game’s high over/under total in mind, there’s reason to expect this game to have plenty of goals, and Vancouver’s top scorers could be slightly less popular than they should be.
