NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
There are six NHL games Wednesday, and the Avalanche and Golden Knights are both huge favorites, whereas Winnipeg, San Jose, Vancouver and Buffalo are all home underdogs. The highest over/under total is in the Toronto-Winnipeg bout, and it’s probably wise to expect a lot of Colorado and Vegas skaters to be popular DFS targets.
Here’s a quick-hit previews for Wednesday’s action.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Flyers at Sabres preview
(Line: Flyers -200)
The Sabres blew a 3-0 lead to Philadelphia Monday to extend their losing streak to 18 games, and maybe even more alarming, their home-ice record dipped to a disastrous 2-11-3. Buffalo has scored the fewest goals per game in the league, sports a league-low minus-51 goal differential and allows the third most goals per game. While it’s obvious that Buffalo’s losing streak won’t drag on too much longer, Monday’s loss highlights just how broken the club is. As a result, expecting the Sabres to turn the tide Wednesday is probably a fool's errand, and locking in on them in DFS is probably all the more foolish.
The Flyers new-look trio of Sean Couturier, James van Riemsdyk and Travis Konecny has clicked well with the man advantage but has an unsustainably low 3.7 five-on-five shooting percentage, so they’re an interesting stack to consider. No. 1 defenseman Ivan Provorov collected two points in Monday’s win and has racked up an impressive 23 shots and 11 blocks through the past four games. Brian Elliott will also be a popular DFS target, as he’s won consecutive games with a .930 save percentage. In fact, it’s probably pretty safe to expect the Flyers to be popular across the board.
Maple Leafs at Jets preview
(Line: Maple Leafs -141)
This will be the fifth meeting of the season between the Maple Leafs and Jets. The two clubs split the first four, and Toronto is a single point ahead of Winnipeg for top spot in the North Division. Toronto enters with a mediocre 8-6-1 active record, whereas Winnipeg has gone 11-6-1 through its past 15 contests. There are a couple notable mismatches to highlight. Toronto generates the third-most high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five per 60 minutes in the league, and the Jets allow the most. On the flip side, Winnipeg starter Connor Hellebuyck is definitely a superior talent to the two available options for the Maple Leafs: Jack Campbell and Michael Hutchinson.
Winnipeg made an interesting lineup swap last time out with Mark Scheifele skating with Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor, and the trio has the potential to be as dangerous as any line in the league. Schiefele is a legitimate No. 1 center, and Connor and Ehlers are high-end offensive contributors. It’s also worth highlighting how well Toronto’s second line has played. John Tavares, William Nylander and Alex Galchenyuk have combined for 19.02 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five with a dominant 67.1 Corsi For percentage. Considering the volume of quality opportunities, positive regression is probably ahead of their 2.93 goals per 60 and 6.9 shooting percentage.
Coyotes at Avalanche preview
(Line: Avalanche -295)
The Avalanche ran all over Arizona Monday with 23 more five-on-five shot attempts and 12 more high-danger scoring chances overall during the 5-2 win. There were 10 different Avs who found the scoresheet, and standout defensemen Cale Makar racked up three assists. Nathan MacKinnon also attempted 12 shots without finding the back of the net, although he did register two assists. MacKinnon’s on a heater, too. He’s racked up five goals and 11 assists through the past 10 games. Netminder Philipp Grubauer has also gone 10 consecutive starts without losing in regulation and boasts a jaw-dropping .954 save percentage and 1.02 GAA during the stretch.
Sticking with the Avs, with oodles of starpower and a deep lineup, it’s easy to see why they’re one of the best statistical teams in the league. Colorado has the best Corsi For percentage and allows the fifth-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Additionally, the Avalanche have scored the second most goals per game, allowed the second-fewest and have the second-best penalty-kill percentage in the league. It all adds up to the Coyotes being a huge underdog, and Arizona’s players are likely to be unpopular DFS targets, as a result.
Kings at Golden Knights preview
(Line: Golden Knights -225)
The Kings are struggling along an underwhelming 4-8-3 active stretch with just 36 goals for and 45 against. Vegas, on the other hand, continues to roll with wins in 14 of its past 18 games and a dominant 14-2-1 home-ice record. Vegas is a statistically superior and allows the fewest goals per game in the league, and while Marc-Andre Fleury hasn’t been as sharp through his past 10 games with an .896 save percentage and 3.07 GAA, he still boasts high-end .930 and 2.06 marks for the campaign. Offensively, Vegas has a number of target-worthy skaters. Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty have combined for a high-end 6.03 goals per 60 minutes this season, and Chandler Stephenson, Reilly Smith, Alex Tuch and Cody Glass are cheaper options to consider. Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson are also options with middling salaries. There are also multiple blueliners with Shea Theodore leading the way followed by Alec Martinez, Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud.
As noted, the Kings have struggled to score of late, and their 2.07 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five rank seventh last for the season. The Kings have also lost four of five games to Vegas this season and scored just 11 goals. It’s probably a bad set up to target too many Kings skaters, although netminder Cal Petersen could be a sneaky DFS option. He enters with a solid .923 save percentage, and Vegas attempts the fifth most five-on-five shots per 60 minutes in the league. Still, he’s far from a risk-free start.
Flames at Canucks preview
(Line: Flames -122)
These two teams need a significant push to challenge for a playoff position, and neither is showing signs of having what it takes. Vancouver’s lost three straight games after an encouraging 8-2 stretch, and Calgary enters Wednesday’s tilt with an active 2-6 record. They’re also both middling statistical teams in almost every category, and depth is a shared shortcoming. For our DFS purposes, there’s not a lot to be excited about, either. Calgary has scored the ninth-fewest goals per game in the league, and Vancouver has scored the 10th-fewest.
With each team struggling to score, it could be worth considering starters Thatcher Demko and Jacob Markstrom. Demko has allowed four goals in consecutive starts, but he proceeded that with a dominant 8-2 stretch to the tune of a .949 save percentage and 1.77 GAA. Markstrom hasn’t been sharp since returning from an upper-body injury with a discouraging .890 save percentage and 3.02 GAA through 11 appearances. There’s definite bounceback potential for Markstrom, but his play might also be impacted by a lingering injury.
Wild at Sharks preview
(Line: Wild -159)
The Sharks topped Minnesota in a shootout Monday and had 12 more five-on-five shot attempts and four more high-danger scoring chances overall. It was the second time San Jose has beaten the Wild through four meetings, but Minnesota has outscored them 16-12 to date. San Jose netminder Martin Jones also appears to be turning things around with four wins, a .935 save percentage and 2.11 GAA through his past six starts, but the Sharks still have only won four of their past 10 games. It proves how tough it is to win when allowing the fourth most goals per game.
It would be surprising if Minnesota didn’t have a notable bounceback showing. The Wild enter with a high-end 15-4-2 active stretch and have scored the third most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league. The only real question mark is why the Wild can’t score with the man advantage. Minnesota’s 9.71 power-play percentage ranks last in the league, albeit with a likely unsustainably low 6.5 shooting percentage, which is also a league worst. Offensively, Kirill Kaprizov has been leading the way, but Matt Dumba could be the sneaky DFS value. The defenseman collected an assist in Monday’s loss and attempted four shots.
