Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s a seven-game DFS slate in the NHL Tuesday, and there are three notable favorites in Tampa Bay, Florida and Boston. The Hurricanes and Stars are receiving road chalk, whereas the Rangers and Canadiens are both short home favorites. The bout between the Oilers and Canadiens has the highest over/under total, and the Capitals-Rangers tilt also has the potential to be a high-scoring affair.
Here’s a quick-hit preview of tonight's action to help with your DFS and season-long lineups.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Devils at Bruins preview
(Line: Bruins -196)
For whatever reason, the Devils have given Boston problems all season, with New Jersey winning four of the first five meetings between the two clubs and holding the Bruins to just six goals. Additionally, the Bruins are struggling to separate themselves from the bottom of the East Division while also falling well behind the top three teams. Boston has generated the second fewest five-on-five high-danger scoring chances and third fewest goals per 60 minutes, so with a middling 22.7 power-play percentage, there are legitimate concerns about the offensive attack. After all, the secondary scoring is non-existent behind Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand high-end numbers. It will be important to check Boston’s COVID-19 protocols before puck drop, too. Marchand, Jake DeBrusk and Sean Kuraly are all awaiting to clear protocol.
As for the Devils, their success against Boston is noteworthy, but it’s still hard to justify turning to their skaters in DFS. New Jersey has scored the fourth fewest goals per game and sports a 28th-ranked 13.5 power-play percentage. Plus, the Devils still don’t have a player with 20 points for the campaign, and Miles Wood is their only double-digit goal scorer. With that in mind, Boston starter Jaroslav Halak is a strong lean. It’s also worth highlighting New Jersey’s 73.2 penalty-kill percentage ranks fourth last in the league, so Bergeron, Pastrnak and the other members of Boston’s No. 1 power-play unit are definitely in play Tuesday.
Capitals at Rangers preview
(Line: Capitals -106)
While the Capitals are in first place in the East Division, they’ve lost more games in regulation to the sixth-place Rangers than any other team in the division. Still, interesting as that is, Washington is also cruising along an absolute heater with a league-leading 17-3-1 record since mid-February, which includes an incredible plus-25 goal differential at five-on-five. Additionally, the Caps have scored the second-most goals per game in the league and sport a 10th-ranked power-play and penalty-kill percentage. It’s been a balanced scoring attack, too. Nine Caps have double-digit points during the noted 21-game stretch, and Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Jakub Vrana lead the way. It’s also worth noting that Tom Wilson has recorded two goals and three assists through four games since returning from suspension, and his 3.05 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five rank fifth in the league among NHL regulars.
The Rangers lost 5-4 to Washington Sunday despite driving five-on-five possession. New York has been a strong defensive team for the most part this season, too. The Blueshirts have allowed just 2.68 goals per game (11th-fewest in the league) and boast the fifth-highest penalty-kill percentage. Offense hasn’t been a shortcoming, either. Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Strome, Adam Fox and Pavel Buchnevich have all scored at better than a point-per-game pace over the past 15 contests, and Chris Kreider has a rock-solid 13 points. Additionally, Artemi Panarin has recorded three goals and eight assists through nine games since returning from his leave of absence. There’s potential for this game to be high scoring, so the top two lines from both teams are in play.
Blue Jackets at Lightning preview
(Line: Lightning -225)
The Blue Jackets have lost four consecutive games and allowed 14 goals in the process, so it’s no surprise to see them as huge underdogs on the road against the first-place Lightning. Tampa Bay has also lost its past two outings, which probably only makes the matchup all the more challenging for Columbus. The Lightning are 13-2 on home ice, after all. Additionally, Tampa Bay is tied for the league lead in goal differential, has surrendered the fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and scored the most goals per game. The Bolts remain in championship form. Columbus, on the other hand, hasn’t been able to gain any traction all season and sports a 24th-ranked 75.9 penalty-kill percentage while also surrendering the eighth-most goals per game in the league.
It’s probably difficult to fit Andrei Vasilevskiy’s salary into many lineups, but he’s definitely a strong option given his .930 save percentage and 1.99 GAA, and especially considering he’s set up for a bounce-back showing after allowing four goals in each of his past two starts. Offensively for Tampa Bay, Steven Stamkos has just a single goal through the past four games, so he is also a rebound candidate, whereas No. 1 defenseman Victor Hedman paces NHL defensemen in points and ranks second in shot attempts. It’s also worth highlighting Ondrej Palat’s recent surge of five tallies, 12 helpers and nine power-play points through the past 16 games. Another quietly productive Bolt is Mikhail Sergachev, as he ranks 22nd in points per 60 minutes among defensemen with at least 500 minutes played.
Red Wings at Panthers preview
(Line: Panthers -235)
This is arguably the hardest game to handicap on the docket, and especially with Florida such a huge favorite. Aaron Ekblad (lower body) and Patric Hornqvist (undisclosed) have already been ruled out, and Aleksander Barkov (lower body) could also miss the game. Those are significant losses for the Panthers, and Florida isn’t exactly a deep lineup. Detroit is obviously not an intimidating opponent, and its 3-12-1 road record is a huge eyesore. However, the Red Wings enter with an active 5-4 record, which includes wins over Tampa Bay, Carolina, Dallas and the most recent two-game sweep over Columbus. Circling back, if Barkov is out of the lineup again Tuesday, the Panthers probably shouldn’t be as heavily favored as they are.
Rolling with huge underdogs is definitely risky, but there are a few interesting options from Detroit. To start, netminder Calvin Pickard has consecutive wins with just a single goal allowed in each start, and he’s inexpensive in DFS. The No. 1 line of Dylan Larkin, Filip Zadina and Robby Fabbri has been dangerous with 16.74 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, so there’s reason to expect positive regression ahead of their 5.9 shooting percentage. Finally, defenseman Filip Hronek has piled up two tallies, eight helpers and three power-play points through the past 10 games. Florida obviously has players to target considering Detroit has the worst penalty-kill percentage in the league and has surrendered the seventh-most goals per game — and especially if Barkov is active.
Oilers at Canadiens preview
(Line: Canadiens -124)
The Oilers pulled off an overtime win to top Toronto Monday, so this is the second leg of a back-to-back road set. Interestingly, it will be Montreal’s first game in 10 days, so while the Canadiens will be well rested, they might also be a little rusty. Still, this projects to be the marquee matchup of the evening with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl projected to remain on the same line. The duo have clicked for an elite 8.99 goals and 23.21 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, so Montreal will have its hands full trying to slow down the league’s top two scorers.
The Canadiens will be a little tough to forecast Tuesday. Not only have they been off for an extended period of time, but they enter with an underwhelming 6-6-7 active record. Additionally, their leading scorer during the noted stretch, Tyler Toffoli, will miss Tuesday’s game with a lower-body injury. After Toffoli, Tomas Tatar and Jeff Petry are tied for second in points with just 13 through 19 games. It’s also worth noting that Carey Price allowed four goals in each of his two starts before the 10-day layoff.
Hurricanes at Blackhawks preview
(Line: Hurricanes -160)
The Hurricanes have won three straight and are coming off a 4-3 win over the Lightning Saturday. Chicago, on the other hand, has lost eight of its past 11 games, including two straight to Nashville and allowed the Predators to tie for fourth in the Central Division. The Blackhawks will need to right the ship quickly to stay in playoff contention, but this checks out as a daunting two-game series against Carolina. The Hurricanes allow the fourth fewest goals per 60 minutes and boast the second-best team save percentage while also sporting the fourth best Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. Carolina also has the league’s best power-play percentage and has top-10 ranks in goals per game, goals against per game and penalty-kill percentage.
Chicago continues to receive high-end production from Patrick Kane, as he’s sporting a four-game point streak to improve to 13 tallies, 35 helpers and 16 power-play points through 36 games. Power-play quarterback Adam Boqvist remains a low-priced option in DFS with a 13th-ranked 1.92 points per 60 minutes among regular defensemen. The bubble appears to have burst for netminder Kevin Lankinen, though. He enters with a 3-5-1 record, .911 save percentage and 3.01 GAA through his past nine appearances. Turning to the Hurricanes, Dougie Hamilton remains a high-end option with an active 14-game point streak while also leading all defensemen in shot attempts for the campaign. Additionally, Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas have continued to post dominant numbers with a combined 16 goals and 17 assists through the past 13 games. James Reimer and Alex Nedeljkovic are both solid options in nets against Chicago, too.
Stars at Predators preview
(Line: Stars -120)
The Predators have climbed into a playoff position with wins in seven of their past eight games, so this is an important matchup in the Central Division. After all, Dallas has four games in hand and is only six points behind Nashville and Chicago. However, the Stars enter with an underwhelming 5-8-5 active record, so they’ll need to flip the switch to make a serious playoff push. Dallas does take care of business defensively at five-on-five, though. The Stars surrender the fewest high-danger scoring chances and the third fewest goals per 60 minutes while also ranking sixth in Corsi For percentage. Considering the Preds score the sixth fewest five-on-five goals per 60 minutes in the league, it could be difficult for Nashville to capitalize Tuesday.
Nashville has been led by Eeli Tolvanen of late, as the young Finn sports a five-game point streak with two tallies and five helpers. It’s also worth noting that Viktor Arvidsson appears on the verge of a goal-scoring binge. He’s sporting an unsustainably low 4.3 shooting percentage for the campaign, and the high-volume shooter has attempted the most shots per 60 minutes on the team. Turning to the Stars, Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz — when healthy — have been the most consistent scorers of late. Pavelski’s 20.5 shooting percentage definitely still has statistical correction ahead considering he posted a 13.4 mark over the previous four seasons. Robertson and Hintz aren’t lineup locks with Nashville’s improved play, either.
