Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The seven evening games beginning at 7 p.m. EST comprise the featured contests at most DFS sites Saturday. It’s an intriguing docket, too. Toronto is the only sizable favorite, and the Maple Leafs-Oilers matchup also has the highest over/under total. Additionally, the Jets-Flames and Sharks-Coyotes contests are rematches from Friday night. Winnipeg won 3-2, and Arizona recorded a 5-2 victory. Here’s a quick-hit primer to help your lineup assembly.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Tampa Bay Lightning (-120) at Carolina Hurricanes
This is an important two-game series for the top two teams in the Central Division. Tampa Bay has won three of the first five meetings, but interestingly, the two clubs have combined for just 18 total goals. After all, the Lightning pace the NHL in goals per game and Carolina ranks eighth. Additionally, they rank first and second in power-play percentage. However, it is also worth noting that they also rank first and second in team save percentage at five-on-five, too. So, Saturday’s matchup is a little tricky to handicap from a scoring perspective. The potential is definitely there for a high-scoring result, but that hasn’t been the case through the first five meetings.
Leading the way offensively for Carolina has been Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas, as the duo has clicked for 13 goals and 14 assists through 12 March games. Similarly, Ondrej Palat has been on a month-long heater for the Lightning with 16 points — four goals — through the past 14 games. It’s also important to note the high-end numbers Victor Hedman and Dougie Hamilton are posting. They both rank top five in points per 60 minutes among defensemen, and Hamilton paces all blueliners in shot attempts per hour. Finally, Bolts netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy continues to pad his Vezina case with a 21-4-1 record, .932 save percentage and 1.91 GAA, whereas potential Carolina starter Alex Nedeljkovic sports a high-end 8-2-2, .929 and 2.05 line.
Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs (-159)
This will be the eighth meeting between these two teams, and Toronto has won five of the first seven while limiting Edmonton to just 13 goals. Still, outside of being swept in their most recent three-game series to the Maple Leafs, the Oilers are 18-4, so they’re definitely entering in high-end form. Edmonton should also be rested after COVID-19 protocols postponed its three games against Montreal this week. With that in mind, Toronto starter Jack Campbell is likely a risky start given the statistical correction that’s probably ahead of his .958 save percentage and 1.18 GAA.
Additionally, during the noted three-game series, Edmonton superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were held to just a single assist. Expect them to make noise against the Maple Leafs Saturday. On the flip side, Toronto superstar Auston Matthews continues to struggle to find the back of the net. He’s only scored three times with a 6.5 shooting percentage through the past 12 games, and considering his wrist/hand injury is probably still lingering, there probably shouldn’t be oodles of optimism he’ll turn it around in short order. Finally, with both these teams ranking high in goals per game and power-play percentage, there’s potential for this to be a high-scoring affair.
New York Islanders (-112) at Pittsburgh Penguins
The Islanders have the best point percentage in the league since Feb 1, and they’re tied for first place in the East Division. New York has also allowed the fewest goals and second-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five, so the Penguins are in tough. However, Pittsburgh is also cruising along an active 9-2-1 stretch, and the Penguins boast an impressive 14-3-1 home-ice record. Statistically, though, Pittsburgh doesn’t jump off the page in any particular category. This is a tape-measuring matchup for both clubs.
Pittsburgh netminder Tristan Jarry has been spectacular for a month-plus with an 11-4-1 record, .927 save percentage and 2.37 GAA, and New York also has one of the best one-two goalie tandems in the league. Semyon Varlamov has a 14-6-3, .923 and 2.20 line, and No. 2 Ilya Sorokin has an eight-game winning streak with .944 and 1.35 ratios. Additionally, while the Penguins are 3-1-1 without Evgeni Malkin (lower body), it puts a lot of offensive responsibility on Sidney Crosby. Expect No. 87 to see tough matchups all night Saturday. It’s also worth highlighting how balanced the Islanders’ scoring attack has been. They have 13 players with double-digit points but only four with more than 20. It’s tough to pinpoint who to target for DFS purposes.
Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks (-120)
Nashville is putting forth a midseason charge and won five of its past six contests with a plus-11 goal differential. However, its 7-1 drubbing of the Red Wings on Thursday has a lot to do with it. Still, the Predators attempt a lot of shots and drive possession, and there should be positive regression ahead of their 7.9 five-on-five shooting percentage, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. Captain Roman Josi’s return has also been a boon. He’s found the scoresheet in each of the past two games. A Saturday win would have Nashville just two points back of Chicago in the Central Division, too.
The Blackhawks took advantage of Aleksander Barkov’s (lower body) absence from the Florida lineup to quill a four-game losing streak, as Chicago swept the recent two-game series against the Panthers. However, there are definite signs that the wheels may be coming off. Chicago ranks 27th in penalty-kill percentage (73.6) for the campaign and has surrendered a healthy 11.51 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five through the past month. Both of Nashville’s top two lines have options to consider. Blackhawks star Patrick Kane can’t go without mention. He’s up to 13 tallies, 33 helpers and 16 power-play points for the campaign and has consecutive multi-point showings.
Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars (-113)
The Panthers lost consecutive games with Aleksander Barkov (lower body) sidelined, and if he misses Saturday’s tilt, it will give Dallas a significant edge. Additionally, Patric Hornqvist (undisclosed) was hurt in Thursday’s loss, and he’s also questionable for the Panthers. Florida’s strong start to the campaign has afforded room for a midseason lull, but the Cats are bow six points behind Tampa Bay for the division lead, While Dallas has an uphill climb to a postseason berth, the Stars do have games in hand, so they’re a winning streak away from making noise.
Goaltending has been an issue for the Stars. Dallas allows the second-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five and sports the seventh-highest Corsi For percentage, but a middling .907 team save percentage has been a drain. Still, the Stars have surrendered the seventh-fewest goals per game in the league. Similarly, Florida allows the fourth-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five, so there’s potential for this to be a low-scoring contest. Through their first three meetings, there were only 12 total goals. It’s probably a game to be cautious of overexposure in DFS.
Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames (-125)
These two teams continue to trend in opposite directions. Winnipeg has won three consecutive games and is tied for first in the North Division, whereas Calgary has dropped four straight and is all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. What’s worse is an already underwhelming Calgary offense has been limited to just four goals during the current four-game skid. The Flames' top two lines only generated three high-danger scoring chances Friday, too. Winnipeg backup Laurent Brossoit projects to be a popular DFS target, as a result, and he enters with an impressive .920 save percentage and 2.43 GAA through eight starts.
For the Jets, the Pierre-Luc Dubois–Nikolaj Ehlers–Kyle Connor line continues to play well. They attempted 11 five-on-five shots Friday while allowing just six and are up to 11 goals and 15 assists through the past nine games. For comparison, the Mark Scheifele–Blake Wheeler–Paul Stastny trio has collected nine tallies and 12 helpers. They’ll also face Calgary backup David Rittich, and while there have been shining moments for the 28-year-old Czech, his .908 save percentage doesn’t inspire much confidence.
San Jose Sharks at Arizona Coyotes (-112)
The Coyotes took it to the Sharks Friday night with a 5-2 win, and the underlying numbers told the same story. Arizona generated 14 more shot attempts and 15 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five. Making matters worse for Saturday, San Jose will likely turn to Devan Dubnyk and his .899 save percentage and 3.18 GAA in nets. However, Arizona might be in a worse spot with rookie Russian Ivan Prosvetov probably making his NHL debut with Darcy Kuemper (lower body) and Antti Raanta (lower body) injured, and Adin Hill starting Friday. The Coyotes might also be without top defenseman Jakob Chychrun (undisclosed). He left in the third period of Friday’s game.
With all that in mind, this game could go over the number again Saturday. After all, San Jose is allowing the fourth-most goals per game in the league this season, and Arizona ranks 13th with 3.0. It’s worth noting that while Christian Dvorak, Conor Garland and Christian Fischer combined for two goals and two assists Friday, they were caved in with a 27.8 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. For San Jose, Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc and Evander Kane are an intriguing stack after attempting 14 shots at five-on-five without scoring Friday.
