Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are 11 NHL games Thursday, so it’s a deep DFS player pool. The Penguins and Maple Leafs are the two largest favorites on the docket with Washington, Nashville, Colorado and Tampa Bay also all receiving notable chalk. The three games with the highest over/under totals are the Maple Leafs-Senators, Rangers-Flyers and Panthers-Blackhawks tilts.
Here’s a quick-hit primer to set the stage for Thursday’s fantasy action in the NHL.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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New York Islanders at Boston Bruins (-114)
This will be an interesting game for Boston. The Bruins have been off since last week because of COVID-19 protocols, and they’ve also lost all four meetings with the Islanders this season and scored just five goals in the process. New York continues to sit atop the Atlantic Division and is also one of the best five-on-five teams in the league. The Islanders generate the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in the league and allow the second fewest while also sporting the fourth best team save percentage. Additionally, New York allows the fewest goals per game. Boston also has a suffocating defense with the league’s best penalty-kill percentage, and the Bruins allow just 2.29 goals per game — fifth fewest in the league.
Islanders’ netminder Ilya Sorokin has been incredible for over a month with a .944 save percentage and 1.35 GAA during his eight-game winning streak. Having the youngster playing so well is quite the luxury considering veteran Semyon Varlamov boasts a 13-6-3 record, .923 save percentage and 2.17 GAA for the campaign. The Islanders are winning with team defense, elite goaltending and balanced scoring, so their skaters aren’t strong DFS targets most nights. Turning to Boston, the break should have provided enough time for Tuukka Rask to return from an undisclosed injury, and he’ll start if he’s healthy. Up front, it continues to be the Patrice Bergeron–David Pastrnak–Brad Marchand show, as the top line has accounted for nine of Boston’s 22 goals through its past 10 games. Still, considering their hefty salaries in a deep player pool, and New York’s team defense, it’s probably not the best night to tee them up.
New York Rangers (-129) at Philadelphia Flyers
These two clubs are headed in opposite directions with the Rangers sporting an active 10-6-2 record with a plus-17 goal differential, whereas Philadelphia enters with an active 3-7-1 record with 4.5 goals allowed per game. They also split a recent series in New York with the Rangers winning the second game 9-0, so expect the Flyers to be extra motivated Thursday. It should still be a favorable matchup for the New York offense, as the Flyers have allowed the third-most goals per game in the league and sport a 25th-ranked 74.5 penalty-kill percentage.
One of the biggest issues for the Flyers has been Carter Hart’s play. He’s allowed 34 goals on just 200 shots through his past nine appearances to dip to a dismal .875 save percentage and 3.85 GAA for the campaign. Offensively, it’s not a great matchup for the Flyers, either. The Rangers have been sneaky good defensively with the 10th fewest goals against per game and the third-best penalty-kill percentage in the league. Rangers’ star Artemi Panarin hasn’t skipped a beat through six games since returning from his personal leave. The Russian has piled up three goals and seven assists, and the Rangers have 26 total goals since his return. Center Ryan Strome has also benefited and sports a six-game point streak.
New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals (-190)
Even with a win in four of the past five games, the Devils are significant road underdogs in Washington. The Capitals enter with an active 11-2 record with a plus-16 goal differential and just 2.23 goals against per game. Additionally, this will be the fifth meeting between the two clubs, and the Caps have won all four and scored 17 goals through the contests. Additionally, it’s also a great set up for the Washington power play, as the Devils sport the worst penalty-kill percentage in the league. Expect Washington’s top scorers to be popular DFS targets Thursday.
The big question surrounding the Capitals is Alex Ovechkin’s (lower body) health. After taking a maintenance day Tuesday, he returned to practice Wednesday, so he’s probably going to suit up against the Devils, but it will be important to double-check his status. Veteran center Lars Eller (lower body) has already been ruled out for the fifth straight game. New Jersey goalie Mackenzie Blackwood has won three straight and stopped 89 of 104 shots (.942 save percentage), so there’s potential contrarian appeal. Otherwise, there’s not a lot to be excited about from the Devils.
Carolina Hurricanes (-165) at Columbus Blue Jackets
This is the final leg of a four-game series between these two clubs, and the Hurricanes shut out the Blue Jackets on Tuesday after losing the first two meetings. Columbus is battling for a playoff berth and currently two points out of fourth place, whereas Carolina is in second place in the Central Division and sporting a scorching 9-1-2 active stretch. The Hurricanes remain one of the best five-on-five teams in the league with the third fewest goals against and third best Corsi For percentage while generating fourth most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. The Blue Jackets have the worst Corsi For percentage in the league at five-on-five, so expect the game to be tilted in Carolina’s favor again Thursday.
Carolina’s been driven by Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas of late, and the duo has clicked for 11 goals and 13 assists through the past 11 games. Defenseman Dougie Hamilton is also sporting a 12-game point streak, and the high-volume shooter is one of the most reliable blueline options in the league — albeit also one of the most expensive in DFS. It’s surprising Andrei Svechnikov hasn’t been as productive. He’s recorded just seven points — two goals — with an unsustainably low 4.3 shooting percentage through the past 15 games. There’s positive regression ahead considering he’s attempted 83 shots with 17 being of the high-danger variety during the stretch.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-305) at Ottawa Senators
The Senators are coming off consecutive victories over the Flames, this is definitely a tough schedule spot. It will be Ottawa’s third game in four days and second in consecutive nights, whereas Toronto has been off since also beating Calgary on Saturday. Additionally, the Maple Leafs have only won two of their past eight games, and they can climb back into top spot in the North Division with a win. Toronto has already confirmed Jack Campbell as Thursday’s starter, and he’s undefeated with a .965 save percentage and 1.00 GAA through his four starts this year. Expect him to be a popular DFS target.
The Maple Leafs top scorers will also likely be popular. The Senators surrender the most goals per game in the league and have the 23rd-ranked penalty-kill percentage (75.7), after all. They’ve been quiet, though. During the noted eight-game slide, John Tavares and Mitchell Marner have led the club in scoring with six points each, and Auston Matthews, Zach Hyman and Morgan Rielly have five each. It could probably be argued that statistical correction is ahead for the high-scoring Maple Leafs, though. For example, Auston Matthews has 23 individual high-danger scoring chances through those eight games and only scored three times. While it’s definitely worth noting Ottawa has played Toronto tough this season, as highlighted, it projects as a daunting matchup given the schedule spot.
Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins (-315)
As expected, the Penguins took care of the Sabres Wednesday with a 5-1 win, and it’s likely Pittsburgh will take care of business again Thursday. The Pens attempted 12 more five-on-five shots and generated 10 more high-danger scoring chances, so the game was never close. They are likely to turn to Casey DeSmith in the second game of this back-to-back set, and he’s been particularly sharp through his past five starts with a .956 save percentage and 1.21 GAA. Expect him to be a chalky DFS selection in the plus-matchup. Buffalo has lost 15 straight and scored just 25 goals along the way.
Penguins skaters should also be considered. Sidney Crosby had a multi-point showing, and Kris Letang found the back of the net. Pittsburgh’s No. 1 line of Crosby, Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel has also been sizzling to the tune of 5.05 goals and 16.31 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. It’s also worth noting that while Buffalo isn’t going to lose every game for the rest of the season, this is definitely another tough spot. Pittsburgh’s 13-3-1 at home and enters with an active 13-5-1 record.
Florida Panthers (-121) at Chicago Blackhawks
Another rematch, the Blackhawks topped Florida 3-2 Tuesday. While Chicago deserves credit, Aleksander Barkov (lower body) missed the game, and the Panthers had their lines in a blender all night. Barkov has also already been ruled out for Thursday, so it will be interesting to see how Florida’s lineup looks. It wouldn’t be surprising if the lines were mixed and matched again Thursday, either. Losing Barkov is a tremendous blow, and it probably turns the Panthers into a one-line team offensively.
Blackhawks superstar Patrick Kane collected two assists Tuesday to reach 10 points through his past 10 games, but he only has a single goal during the stretch, so look for statistical correction ahead of his 3.0 shooting percentage. He remains one of the most consistent scorers in the league with 12 tallies, 32 helpers and 15 power-play points through 33 games. Additionally, with Florida’s offense down an elite producer, Chicago netminder Kevin Lankinen could be a sneaky target in DFS. He stopped 33 shots in Tuesday’s win and has a respectable .915 save percentage for the campaign.
Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators (-182)
The Red Wings have now lost consecutive games without scoring a goal, as just when it looked like they were going to be more competitive, they’ve slipped back to playing their basement-dwelling style. Nashville limited Detroit to just six high-danger scoring chances in its 2-0 win Tuesday, too. Even with the Predators receiving a huge boost from the return of Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis (upper body) and Matt Duchene (lower body) were out of the lineup and probably will be again Thursday.
With Nashville ranking second to last and Detroit third to last in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, this projects to be another low-scoring game between the two clubs. After all, through five games this season, the two teams have combined for just 22 goals — 11 each. With that in mind, this is likely a game to steer clear of, unless you’re looking to target one of the netminders, and Nashville’s Juuse Saros shut out Detroit Tuesday.
St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild (-121)
St. Louis has been tremendously inconsistent over the past month-plus and enters Thursday’s game with an active 6-6-3 record after losing to Vegas 5-1 on Monday.The Blues are closer to being fully healthy, though. Tyler Bozak (upper body) and Colton Parayko (back) are the only regulars out of the lineup, in addition to Ivan Barbashev (ankle) and Oskar Sundqvist (leg), who are both out long term. Still, the Wild are on a heater with an active 14-4-1 record with just 30 five-on-five goals allowed during the stretch. Additionally, Minnesota has generated the third most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five while allowing the third fewest.
The Blues haven’t got much production from their Brayden Schenn–Vladimir Tarasenko–Jaden Schwartz line, as the trio have combined for just 1.29 goals per 60 minutes. However, their 4.4 shooting percentage definitely has statistical correction ahead, so they’re a trio to keep tabs on in future matchups. Minnesota is definitely in a favorable matchup with St. Louis allowing a healthy 3.19 goals per game and sporting a 27th-ranked 73.3 penalty-kill percentage. However, outside of Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, there isn’t a lot to be excited about from the Wild.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-175) at Dallas Stars
The Lightning topped Dallas 2-1 Tuesday, and while they attempted 14 more shots at five-on-five, the Stars held Tampa Bay to just eight high-danger scoring chances all game. This will be the fifth meeting between the two clubs, and Tampa Bay has won all four and limited Dallas to just four goals. Additionally, with Tuesday’s win, Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy has now won 12 consecutive games with a .938 save percentage and 1.64 GAA. He’s a solid candidate to turn in another high-end showing Thursday, too. Dallas has scored the fifth fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league, after all.
Even with Tampa Bay scoring the most goals per game in the league, the Stars won’t be a pushover, though. Dallas has been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and allows the sixth fewest goals per game while also sporting the seventh-best Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. Of course, offense will still be tough to come by for the Stars with Tampa Bay allowing the fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. This will likely be another low-scoring affair, so overexposure to either team would be risky. It’s worth noting that both Alexander Radulov (lower body) and Joel Kiviranta (lower body) are out for Thursday’s game.
Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche (-180)
This is the marquee matchup on the docket. Both clubs are Stanley Cup contenders and enter in high-end form. Vegas sports a 12-3 active record, and Colorado is at 11-2-2 entering Tuesday. They’re both top-tier teams across the board statistically, and they also split their four-game series in mid-February. In nets, Marc-Andre Fleury boasts a 16-6 record with a .931 save percentage and 1.93 GAA, and Philipp Grubauer sports an equally impressive 19-7, .930, 1.71 line. Additionally, both clubs have deep and balanced lineups. However, Vegas will be without key defenseman Alex Pietrangelo (undisclosed), and Max Pacioretty (lower body) is considered questionable.
All said, this is a tough game to handicap. Colorado’s No. 1 line has been dominant again this season with Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen combining for an elite 5.71 goals per 60 minutes while driving possession with a 66.1 Corsi For percentage. The Avs follow it up with Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky and Brandon Saad who’ve clicked for a respectable 3.49 goals at five-on-five while also hogging possession with a 59.7 Corsi For percentage. If Pacioretty doesn’t suit up or is at less than 100 percent, it would hurt Vegas’ outlook, and the Golden Knights could have difficulty slowing down Colorado’s best players.
