Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a busy 10-game slate in the NHL on Monday. The Avalanche, Wild and Rangers are the largest favorites on the docket with Calgary and Carolina also receiving notable chalk. Vegas and Los Angeles are the only teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back set and both had to travel. Here’s your quick-hit preview to help assemble your DFS lineups.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers (-225)
Buffalo’s losing streak is up to 13 games, and the Sabres have just six wins all season. Additionally, during the noted skid, they’ve only scored more than two goals twice. Buffalo also allows the third-most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and the fourth most per game. No. 1 center Jack Eichel (neck) is out long term, too. Expect there to be plenty of DFS players teeing up the Rangers on Monday.
New York has scored 21 goals through its past four games and at least four in three of those outings, so the offense is turning the corner with Artemi Panarin back in the lineup. Additionally, with just netminder Igor Shesterkin (groin) injured, the Blueshirts are healthy and a late-season push away from contending for a playoff berth. It’s worth noting that while the Ryan Strome-Panarin-Colin Blackwell line has scored a respectable 3.92 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, they’ve only generated 5.87 high-danger scoring chances per 60, so there’s probably some negative regression ahead of their 12.1 shooting percentage and 108.1 PDO. Also, Alexandar Georgiev should probably be considered a quality option in nets Monday.
Carolina Hurricanes (-159) at Columbus Blue Jackets
This is the third meeting in a row between these two clubs, and the Blue Jackets won the first two in Carolina. The consecutive wins have Columbus sitting in fourth place in the Central Division, and the Blue Jackets have collected eight of a possible 10 points through their past five games. There are some sneaky targets from Columbus, too. Oliver Bjorkstrand has racked up five goals and six assists through his past nine games to improve to an impressive 2.99 points per 60 minutes for the campaign. Max Domi has also found a groove with five points – two goals – through his past five games skating of late with Jack Roslovic and Cam Atkinson.
Carolina is missing Vincent Trocheck (upper body) and Teuvo Teravainen (upper body). What made the Hurricanes so dangerous over the past two years was having three lines capable of scoring and driving possession, and their depth is thinned significantly with Trocheck and Teravainen out of the lineup. Additionally, Jordan Staal has cooled off considerably and gone without a point through the five games Trocheck has missed. On a positive note, while expensive in DFS, Dougie Hamilton continues to post monster numbers and currently sports an 11-game point streak consisting of two tallies, 11 helpers, seven power-play points, 37 shots and 15 blocks. Those are elite numbers.
Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens (-118)
This will be the fourth meeting of the season between the two North Division contenders, and Montreal has won two of three while holding the Oilers to just five goals. However, there aren't a lot of similarities in their midseason form. Montreal enters Monday’s tilt with an active 6-6-7 record, whereas Edmonton is cruising along an 18-7 stretch, and Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have piled up 28 goals and 55 assists during the 25-game stretch. Power-play quarterback Tyson Barrie also ranks second in points per 60 minutes in the league among regular defensemen.
While Montreal hasn’t won consecutive games since Feb. 1 and 2, the Habs continue to cling to the final playoff spot in the North Division and are still just five points out of first place. They’re a dominant five-on-five team with the second-best Corsi For percentage while allowing the second-fewest goals per 60 minutes. However, it’s definitely concerning that netminder Carey Price has allowed four goals in consecutive games. He appeared to have turned the corner after going 4-1-1 with a .950 save percentage and 1.50 GAA in his previous six starts. It’s definitely also worth noting that Montreal’s deep and balanced offensive attack that took the league by storm for the first month of the season has all but disappeared. Defenseman Jeff Petry is tied for the team lead in scoring, and winger Tyler Toffoli’s 18 goals pace the club. However, Toffoli (lower body) has already been ruled out for the three-game series against Edmonton.
Calgary Flames (-167) at Ottawa Senators
The Senators have been off since Wednesday, so while there’s potential for them to be a little rusty, they should be rested and healthy. However, their goaltending situation will be important to monitor. Filip Gustavsson and Anton Forsberg are the only options with Matt Murray (lower body), Joey Daccord (leg) and Marcus Hogberg (lower body) all injured. This probably isn’t an ideal spot to turn to Senators skaters, either. Calgary is in desperation mode, sitting four points out of a playoff spot, and new head coach Darryl Sutter should have the Flames prepared for the inferior Senators.
On the flip side, this should set up as a favorable matchup for Calgary. Ottawa has surrendered the most goals per game in the league, and the Senators also have a 24th-ranked 74.8 penalty-kill percentage. However, projecting who’s going to score for Calgary might be difficult. Winger Johnny Gaudreau has just a single goal through the six games since Sutter took over behind the bench, and he hasn’t scored an even-strength goal in 19 games. The Elias Lindholm-Matthew Tkachuk-Dillon Dube line is probably the best bet, and they’ve clicked for an impressive 4.95 goals per 60 minutes this season. With Ottawa scoring the seventh-fewest goals per game in the league, Flames starter Jacob Markstrom is also likely a solid target.
New York Islanders (-129) at Philadelphia Flyers
After losing 4-3 to the Flyers on Thursday, the Islanders bounced back with a dominant 6-1 win Saturday, in which New York had 11 more shot attempts at five-on-five and seven more high-danger scoring chances overall. The Flyers have surrendered the most goals per 60 minutes in the league in March and lost seven of 11 games, so this sets up favorably for the Islanders again Monday. However, it will probably be best to avoid loading up an entire line for Isles, and instead, look at salary-based selections to fill out lineups. After all, the Islanders only have three players with 20 points and just three active players with double-digit goals.
The big news for Philadelphia is Sean Couturier’s (lower body) status, and whether he’ll be able to suit up against New York on Monday. The No. 1 center is obviously a key cog for the Flyers, as they’ve lost six of the 11 games he’s missed. Netminder Carter Hart continues to struggle, as he’s surrendered three goals or more in each of his past eight appearances for a 2-4 record, .821 save percentage and 4.68 GAA. There’s not a lot going right in Philly right now.
Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild (-235)
Minnesota lost consecutive games in convincing fashion to Colorado, so look for the Wild to return to form against the lowly Ducks on Monday. After all, Anaheim enters the contest with a 3-11-3 record, has scored the second-fewest goals per game and allowed the fifth-most. The Wild, on the other hand, enter with an active 12-4-1 record and are one of the best five-on-five teams in the league. Minnesota has generated the second most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in the league while allowing the fourth-fewest. It’s also worth reminding that the Wild’s 31st-ranked 8.5 power-play percentage is unsustainably low.
Monitoring the Wild’s lineup ahead of Monday’s game will be important. Mathew Dumba (lower body) missed Saturday’s game, and Marcus Johansson (upper body) could also return after being out since Feb. 18. Johansson isn’t a true offensive driver, but he’s a capable secondary scorer, and his return would give Minnesota a respectable three-line attack. Playing without Dumba would be a big loss, as he logs 22:09 per game. Even with this likely being a plus-matchup for the Wild, there aren’t many go-to targets to hone in on. While Kirill Kaprizov is likely to be popular, he’s still definitely the top choice.
Winnipeg Jets (-125) at Vancouver Canucks
This is the beginning of an important two-game series for both Vancouver and Winnipeg. The Jets have gone 4-4-1 against Edmonton, Toronto and Montreal of late, and the Canucks' recent 8-2-1 surge has them just three points behind the Jets and two back of fourth place in the North Division. Of course, Vancouver has played a league-high 35 games, so the Canucks still have an uphill climb to the postseason.
Much of the credit for Vancouver’s recent success has to go to Thatcher Demko. He’s posted an 8-4 record, .944 save percentage and 1.90 GAA through his past 12 starts, which has all but saved the Canucks’ season. Offensively, the usual suspects have carried the load with J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser and Bo Horvat all recording 10 points through 11 March games, and defenseman Quinn Hughes is still piling up assists. For Winnipeg, the Pierre-Luc Dubois–Kyle Connors-Nikolaj Ehlers line has been excellent with 4.9 goals per 60 minutes through the past six games. In net, this could be a bounce-back opportunity for Connor Hellebuyck. The American netminder sports an underwhelming .897 save percentage, 3.42 GAA through his past eight starts, so with Vancouver ranking 20th in goals per game, the matchup isn’t daunting.
Colorado Avalanche (-240) at Arizona Coyotes
While there have been a few peaks and valleys this season for the Avalanche, they’ve definitely proved to be legitimate Stanley Cup contenders to this point. Colorado has won six straight games, has the best Corsi For percentage and second-best penalty-kill percentage and goal differential in the league. No. 1 netminder Philipp Grubauer boasts an elite stat line (18-7 record, .929 save percentage and 1.74 GAA with five shutouts), and the Avalanche also have a healthy lineup with high-scoring defenseman Cale Makar back in the lineup. There are nine Avalanche with at least four points during the current six-game winning streak, and the Nazem Kadri-Andrei Burakovsky-Brandon Saad line has clicked for an impressive 4.73 goals and 14.2 high-danger scoring chances.
Arizona received a boost from the return of Antti Raanta on Saturday, as the veteran turned away 27 shots. He might still be nursing a lower-body injury, though, and it’s proven to be a notable drop-off to Adin Hill, who has lost four straight starts with an underwhelming .897 save percentage and 3.04 GAA. Turning to Coyotes skaters, there’s really not a lot of reason to target them as anything other than contrarian fliers Monday. As noted, Colorado is a matchup nightmare.
St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights (-127)
This is a tape-measuring game for the Blues. Vegas has been a high-end team to this point of the season. The Golden Knights have allowed the fewest goals per game, scored the fourth most, sport the fifth-best Corsi For percentage and have the fourth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league. Vegas forwards Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty are posting elite offensive numbers, and defenseman Shea Theodore ranks fourth in points per 60 minutes among regular defensemen. The Golden Knights also boast a deep secondary scoring attack, and No. 1 goalie Marc-Andre Fleury sports an elite .931 save percentage and 1.93 GAA.
St. Louis is still missing multiple regulars, so they’ll be up against it Monday. The recent returns of Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz give the Blues a solid top two lines, but Colton Parayko’s (back) absence still leaves a significant hole on the blue line. Additionally, Torey Krug has recorded five assists through the past 13 games, so offense from the blue line has been generally tough to come by. Outside of an against-the-grain stack of either of St. Louis’ top two lines, there’s probably not a lot to be excited about from the Blues.
Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks (-127)
The Sharks enter Monday’s tilt with an active 3-4-2 record while allowing the third-most goals per game in the league. San Jose has also lost four straight, so it’s a little surprising to see the mediocre Kings an underdog. After all, Los Angeles is 10-5-3 dating back to mid-February and is coming off an impressive 3-1 win over Vegas on Sunday. Additionally, it’s not a lengthy trip from Los Angeles to San Jose. Neither netminder is likely a solid play. Kings starter Jonathan Quick has allowed at least three goals in each of his past four starts with an underwhelming .883 save percentage. Whereas the Sharks have the fifth-lowest team save percentage at five-on-five.
The new-look line of Jeff Carter, Adrian Kempe and Andreas Athanasiou has impressed since being united halfway through Friday’s loss to Vegas. They attempted 18 shots, generated seven high-danger scoring chances and scored a goal through just 12:52 of five-on-five ice time over the two games. With San Jose’s defensive struggles, Carter, Kempe and Athanasiou could be an affordable and overlooked stack. For San Jose, Thomas Hertl and Timo Meier continue to be a solid duo with four goals, eight assists and 11.74 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes through the past six games.
