NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
There are nine games included in the main NHL contests at most DFS sites Saturday, beginning with the six matchups starting at 7 p.m. ET. Carolina, Montreal and Dallas are receiving the biggest favorites on the slate, and the matchup tilt between the Flames and Maple Leafs has the highest over/under total.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders (-133)
The Flyers topped New York 4-3 Thursday and drove possession at five-on-five, holding the Islanders to just six high-danger scoring chances all game. It was a little surprising considering New York has been a high-end team at five-on-five with the best percentage of high-danger scoring chances created compared to allowed in the league. Additionally, the Islanders entered Thursday’s contest with an active 16-3-2 stretch. However, it wasn’t surprising to see Philadelphia allow three goals on just 25 shots. The Flyers have allowed the second-most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and sport an underwhelming 74.7% penalty-kill percentage — eighth worst in the league.
Philadelphia’s best line Thursday was Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny and Oskar Lindblom. They combined for 19 shot attempts (86.4 Corsi For percentage), six high-danger scoring chances, three goals and four assists at five-on-five. The Islanders had their lines in a blender Thursday, but they project to return to their top-six look of Mathew Barzal–Kieffer Bellows–Jordan Eberle, and Brock Nelson–Josh Bailey–Anthony Beauvillier trios. It’s also worth noting that Ivan Provorov and Ryan Pulock project to quarterback the No. 1 power-play units for their respective teams.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes (-187)
Columbus upset the Hurricanes 3-2 Thursday despite allowing 15 high-danger scoring chances and only generating nine and also allowing 10 more shot attempts. The disparity between the two team’s play at five-on-five all season was reinforced Thursday, as Carolina ranks third in Corsi For percentage and third in high-danger scoring chances, whereas Columbus ranks last in both categories. Additionally, it was a rare home-ice loss for Carolina. The Hurricanes still sport an impressive 10-2-1 record at PNC Arena, and Columbus still has a mediocre 5-7-2 road record. It’s also worth noting that the Blue Jackets have a 28th-ranked 72.6 penalty-kill percentage.
With Columbus’ penalty-kill struggles in mind, targeting a mini-stack of Jordan Staal and Andrei Svechnikov, or Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas is definitely in play. Staal is reeling along a four-game point streak, whereas Svechnikov attempted a game-high eight shots Thursday, including two of the high-danger variety. Aho and Necas, on the other hand, have combined for 10 goals and 11 assists through the past nine games. Power-play quarterback Dougie Hamilton is expensive, but he’s also registered the eighth-most points and most shots per 60 minutes among regular defensemen this season.
Dallas Stars (-195) at Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings have now won two straight and three of their past four games, and captain Dylan Larkin has collected two goals and three assists through five games since returning for injury. However, Dallas did drive five-on-five possession with a 57.3 Corsi For percentage and generate 12 high-danger scoring chances, so a change of fortunes Saturday shouldn’t be surprising. After all, Detroit has scored the third-fewest goals per game in the league, and Dallas has held opponents to the fourth-fewest goals and second fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. As a result, Anton Khudobin is probably a strong option in nets for DFS purposes.
Up front for the Stars, Jason Dickinson is projected to receive a ripe opportunity centering Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov, whereas Roope Hintz will have Jason Robertson and Denis Gurianov on his flanks. Robertson has been particularly dangerous at five-on-five this season with a ninth-ranked 3.09 points per 60 minutes, and he’s now receiving regular power-play time with the top unit. As noted, it’s probably not a great matchup for the Red Wings offense, but their No. 1 line still has upside. The trio has recorded an impressive 6.27 goals and 12.53 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes over the past five games.
Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens (-186)
Vancouver topped Montreal 3-2 in overtime Friday on the back of another excellent start from Thatcher Demko — he’s now 8-2 with a .949 save percentage and 1.77 GAA through his past 10 starts. However, it will likely be Braden Holtby in net for the Canucks, and he has an underwhelming 4-6, .893 and 3.56 stat line for the campaign. Montreal will counter with No. 1 netminder Carey Price, and the veteran has settled in of late with a 4-1-2, .938 and 1.85 line through his past seven starts. The Canadiens remain the better five-on-five team for the campaign with the fewest goals against per 60 minutes in the league and the second best Corsi For percentage. Vancouver did generate four more high-danger scoring chances (10-6) than Montreal Friday, though.
It’s worth highlighting how poorly the Bo Horvat–Brock Boeser–Nils Hoglander line was caved in with a 33.3 Corsi For percentage, whereas Montreal’s Phillip Danault–Brendan Gallagher–Tomas Tatar and Jesperi Kotkaniemi–Jonathan Drouin–Josh Anderson trios both considerably drove possession. It’s also worth noting how well Jeff Petry has played. His two assists Friday improved him to a third-ranked 2.4 points per 60 minutes among all regular defensemen this season. Additionally, circling back, Carey Price is definitely worth a long look in DFS.
Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs (-173)
The Flames generated just four high-danger scoring chances all game during Friday’s 4-3 win over the Maple Leafs. Toronto got behind early and chased the game all night, which led to the Maple Leafs dominating shot attempts (70-36) and high-danger scoring chances (14-4). Additionally, three of Calgary’s goals were soft. Expect the Flames to start David Rittich Saturday, and he sports an underwhelming .904 save percentage for the campaign and hasn’t started since March 4. Toronto, on the other, Jack Campbell will make just his second start since Jan. 26. Still, Campbell has won all three of his starts and allowed just four goals in the process.
This is an important game for Toronto. The Maple Leafs are struggling along a 1-6 stretch, and their once commanding lead in the North Division has vanished. Additionally, they’ve allowed 27 goals during the skid. Calgary is moving in the opposite direction with a 4-1 record since new head coach Darryl Sutter took over. It’s been an entire team effort, too. Every Flame who’s hit the ice during the five-game stretch has found the scoresheet, except for 21-year-old defenseman Juuso Valimaki. Still, expect Toronto’s best players to lead the way Saturday, and strong showings from Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly. It’s also worth noting that Alex Galchenyuk had a nice debut for Toronto with three shots, and he was on the ice for two high-danger scoring chances.
New York Rangers at Washington Capitals (-141)
Considering Washington has scored the second-most goals per game this season, and New York entered with 17 goals through its past three contests, Friday’s low-scoring result was a little surprising. There were only 17 high-danger scoring chances during Washington’s 2-1 win, and Alex Ovechkin scored both goals for the Capitals. He’s now sporting a five-game goal scoring streak. However, the Rangers aren’t a doormat opponent. They’ve got the third best penalty-kill percentage in the league (86.0) and allow the ninth fewest goals per game. It’s also worth noting that the Caps swapped their lines up midway through Friday’s game and moved Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie to center Evgeny Kuznetsov’s flanks. It’s something to monitor ahead of Saturday’s rematch.
New York will probably turn to Keith Kinkaid in goal Saturday, and the veteran backup has posted an underwhelming .890 save percentage and 3.37 GAA through 52 games over the past three years. It should prove to be a mismatch given Washington’s high-end offense. The Rangers best line Friday was Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin and Colin Blackwell, as they attempted 18 shots and generated five high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five. There’s also intriguing blueline options from varying price points with power-play quarterbacks John Carlson and Adam Fox both posting quality numbers this year.
Arizona Coyotes (-128) at Anaheim Ducks
The Coyotes enter with five consecutive losses, and their goaltending situation is currently dreadful with Darcy Kuemper (lower body) on injured reserve, and Antti Raanta nursing a lower-body injury. The skid has Arizona all but out of the playoff race, and Clayton Keller and Conor Garland are the only Coyotes with more than a single point during the five-game losing streak. So, while Anaheim definitely is a weak opponent, it’s still slightly surprising to see the Coyotes small home favorites. Of course, considering likely Anaheim starter Ryan Miller has an .882 save percentage and 3.47 GAA, it could be a spot for the Arizona offense to get on track.
Everything with the Ducks should start with rookie Jamie Drysdale’s historic NHL debut Thursday, as the 19-year-old defenseman kick-started his career with a goal and assist. He also attempted six shots and logged 2:24 of power-play time. Still, like the rest of the Ducks, there’s definitely a low floor. After all, Anaheim has scored just 2.23 goals per game — second lowest in the league — and sports the third worst power-play percentage (12.3) in the league.
St. Louis Blues (-144) at San Jose Sharks
Similar to the Rangers-Capitals contest, St. Louis’ 2-1 overtime win over San Jose Friday was a surprisingly low-scoring result. The Sharks have surrendered the third most goals per game in the league, and the Blues have allowed the ninth most, after all. Plus, both teams will likely be starting their backup netminders. St. Louis No. 2 Ville Husso has a disastrous .879 save percentage and 3.56 GAA through 10 games, and San Jose veteran Devan Dubnyk sports .904 and 3.12 marks through his 15 appearances.
St. Louis received a notable boost from Jaden Schwartz’s return from a lower-body injury, as he logged a forward-high 22:55 of ice time and attempted seven shots. He skated with Bryaden Schenn and Valadimir Tarasenko at five-on-five, and the trio should be able to generate quality chances Saturday. The Sharks have some sneaky offensive upside, too, though. Center Tomas Hertl has a goal and five assists through his past five games, and pairing him with linemate Timo Meier could be an against-the-grain mini stack to consider. They’ve generated a respectable 12.56 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes through the five-game stretch.
Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers (-133)
The Jets have alternated wins and losses en route to a 3-3-1 record through their past seven, whereas Edmonton has won six of eight to improve to 17-7 record dating back to the end of January. As a result, the Oilers are tied for tops in the North Division, and the Jets are just two points back. This is another rematch following a surprising low-scoring game Thursday — Edmonton won 2-1. Interestingly, both teams started their No. 2 netminders, so expect starters Connor Hellebuyck and Mike Smith to start for their respective teams.
It will be important to monitor Kailer Yamamoto’s status after he missed Thursday’s contest with an undisclosed injury. The 22-year-old winger’s absence would hurt Edmonton’s secondary scoring. Additionally, it projects to leave Leon Draisaitl with mediocre — at best — wingers Dominik Kahun and Josh Archibald on his flanks. The Jets are expected to roll out the same lines as Thursday, so it’s worth noting the Pierre-Luc Dubois–Kyle Connor–Nikolaj Ehlers trio was Winnipeg’s best. Additionally, it will be interesting to see how the Jets try to deal with Connor McDavid after he scored twice Thursday and was the best player on the ice — like most nights.
