Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a busy 10-game night in the NHL Thursday, and there are numerous notable mismatches. The Lightning, Hurricanes, Penguins and Islanders are all huge favorites, whereas the Bruins and Maple Leafs are also receiving significant chalk. Philadelphia and Calgary are both short home favorites, and the highest over/under totals are in the Toronto-Winnipeg and Philadelphia-Washington matchups.
Here’s a quick-hit primer to help with your DFS and fantasy lineups.
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New York Rangers at Boston Bruins (-195)
The good news for the Blueshirts is Artemi Panarin (personal) has returned to practice. The bad news is he’s not going to play Thursday against Boston. New York enters Thursday’s tilt off consecutive losses to the Penguins and also boasts the third worst Corsi For percentage in the league. On the flip side, driving five-on-five possession is a strength of the Bruins, as they rank third in Corsi For percentage. However, Boston is reeling of late with an active 3-5-2 record and has been held to two goals or fewer in seven of those games. After veterans Torey Krug and Zedno Chara signed elsewhere during the offseason, the blueline was already in question, and now top-four defensemen Jeremy Lauzon (hand) and Brandon Carlo (upper body) are both out of action. Additionally, No. 1 netminder Tuukka Rask’s (undisclosed) status is also in question. Backup Jaroslav Halak is capable and boasts a .919 save percentage and 2.08 GAA through nine appearances this season.
It’s definitely worth highlighting that Boston and New York rank first and second in penalty-kill percentage, respectively, so five-on-five play could be all the more important. Again, with the possession disparity in mind, it’s not surprising to see the Bruins as notable favorites. Still, during the noted 10-game skid, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand are the only Bruins moving the offensive needle with a combined 10 goals and 15 assists. Considering the high salaries of Boston’s No. 1 line, consisting of Patrice Bergeron, Pastrnak and Marchand, they’re probably not lineup locks. On the flip side, New York netminder Alexandar Georgiev could be an against-the-grain option. He’s allowed two goals or fewer in four of his past six appearances and four of those outings were respectable fantasy showings.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-210) at Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres have lost eight consecutive games, and the Penguins appear to be rounding into top form with a healthy lineup and an active 10-4 record dating back to mid-February. Buffalo will also be without No. 1 center Jack Eichel (upper body), which projects to make things even more difficult for the Sabres. Pittsburgh has loaded up its top line with Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust, which leaves Kasperi Kapanen and Evan Rodrigues on Evgeni Malkin’s flanks. Rodrigues is an intriguing value target with an assist in consecutive games. It’s also worth highlighting Tristan Jarry’s improved play and 8-3 record with a .921 save percentage and 2.54 GAA during the noted surge from Pittsburgh — expect him to be a popular DFS target Thursday.
Buffalo is offensively challenged with a league-low 1.58 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and while the Sabres own a fifth-ranked 28.8 power-play percentage, Eichel’s absence cuts into the top unit’s potency. Goaltending has also been a significant shortcoming with Buffalo’s .904 team save percentage at five-on-five ranking third last in the league. This is a plus matchup all around for the Penguins.
New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders (-215)
The Islanders have somewhat quietly climbed to the top of the East Division and are statistically one of the best defensive teams in the league. New York has only lost twice in regulation through its past 19 games and has surrendered the fourth fewest goals and third fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five with the fifth best team save percentage. No. 1 netminder Semyon Varlamov boasts a high-end 12-4-3 record, .929 save percentage and 2.03 GAA for the campaign, too.
New Jersey hasn’t been as solid. The Devils enter with an active 2-8-1 record and have only scored 1.82 goals and generated 8.51 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, so it might be difficult to create quality opportunities against the stingy Islanders. It’s definitely important to note New Jersey’s league-low 64.6% penalty-kill percentage, which should make the Islanders’ No. 1 power-play unit a solid lean. In particular, Ryan Pulock has been quarterbacking the top group, and he’s a high-volume shooter who provides cross-category production and doesn’t break the bank.
Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers (-112)
One of the few games without a significant favorite, this Capitals-Flyers tilt should be high scoring. Philadelphia and Washington rank second and fourth in five-on-five goals per 60 minutes, respectively, and are also both top-10 clubs in goals per game. Additionally, Philadelphia’s .908 team save percentage at five-on-five ranks fourth worst, and Washington sports a seventh worst .911 mark. There’s game-stack potential here.
Washington’s new-look second line of Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jakub Vrana and Daniel Sprong stands out as a value trio. They combined for three goals, two assists and 12 shot attempts in Tuesday’s win over New Jersey. The Flyers top line of Sean Couturier, James van Riemsdyk and Joel Farabee also continues to shine, and they’ve clicked for an elite 6.02 goals per 60 minutes. Additionally, there are defense targets worth honing in on. Washington’s power-play quarterback John Carlson is trending in the right direction with two assists, seven shots and four blocks through the past two games, and Shayne Gostisbehere has refound his offensive touch for the Flyers with four tallies, a helper, 31 shots and eight blocks through his past eight outings. It’s also worth noting Alex Ovechkin only has three goals and an unsustainably low 5.9 shooting percentage through his past 13 contests — statistical correction is ahead.
Nashville Predators at Carolina Hurricanes (-245)
The Hurricanes are cruising along a six-game winning streak and have already topped Nashville three times this season. This should be an even easier test for the Hurricanes, too, The Predators are without Roman Josi (upper body), Ryan Ellis (upper body), Matt Duchene (lower body), Erik Haula (COVID-19) and Luke Kunin (lower body). Carolina, on the other hand, is only without winger Teuvo Teravainen (upper body). It all adds up to the Hurricanes being the second biggest favorite on the docket.
It’s been somewhat difficult to target specific Hurricanes in DFS because of their balanced attack. However, veteran Jordan Staal is in the middle of another heater with three tallies, four helpers and three multi-point showings through his past four contests, and linemate Andrei Svechnikov has only scored twice with a 4.5% shooting percentage through his past 17 games, so there’s positive regression ahead for Svechnikov. Additionally, No. 1 defenseman and power-play quarterback Dougie Hamilton has an active six-game point streak. It’s also worth highlighting to statistical mismatches. The Predators have a 29th-ranked 70.0 penalty-kill percentage, and Carolina has the third best power-play percentage in the league. Additionally, the Predators have only scored 1.83 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five (second fewest in the league), so Carolina’s starter is definitely in play. Both James Reimer and Alex Nedeljkovic have been solid.
Florida Panthers (-136) at Columbus Blue Jackets
The Panthers topped Columbus 4-2 Tuesday with netminder Sergei Bobrovsky making 38 saves. Five-on-five shot attempts were nearly even with Florida having one more at five-on-five, but the Cats did generate an impressive 13 high-danger scoring chances. Five of those opportunities came from the Aleksander Barkov–Carter Verhaeghe–Mason Marchment line, which was thrown together midway through Tuesday’s game. The trio is projected to stick together and Marchment stands out as an excellent low-salary flier to consider in DFS.
Columbus continues to struggle defensively with 3.22 goals against per game and a 27th-ranked 72.7 penalty-kill percentage. Florida, meanwhile, plays stout five-on-five defense with just 2.03 goals against and a league-low 7.63 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. As a result, it’s difficult to consider Blue Jackets skaters as anything other than contrarian fliers, especially in this cavernous player pool. Two additional Panthers to keep in mind are Jonathan Huberdeau and Keith Yandle. Hurberdeau enters with a six-game point streak, and Yandle has statistical correction ahead. While the veteran defenseman has missed the scoresheet in six of his past eight outings, his 2.02 points per 60 minutes still rank fourth among regular defensemen over the past three years (at least 2,500 minutes played).
Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs (-180)
The Jets took care of the Maple Leafs Tuesday despite Toronto attempting 21 more shots and generating 11 more high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five — the overall numbers were even worse with Toronto leading both statistics 69-41 and 24-6. Winnipeg will be in tough if it allows the Maple Leafs to dominate possession and rack up quality scoring chances again Thursday. However, the trump card is definitely Connor Hellebuyck. The reigning Vezina Trophy winner’s numbers — .912 save percentage and 2.75 GAA — don’t jump off the page, but he showcased his ability to steal a game with Tuesday’s 36-save win. He’ll need another strong showing, too. Winnipeg has surrendered the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five and a run-of-the-mill, 22nd-ranked 72.7 penalty-kill percentage.
With Toronto dropping a season-high three straight games, it would be surprising if this wasn’t one of the Maple Leafs most complete games to date. Statistically, there are some mismatches in their favor, too. Toronto’s power play paces the NHL, and the Maple Leafs also rank sixth in both goals and high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. It’s definitely important to note that while Auston Matthews scored twice Tuesday, he wasn’t passed up quality shooting opportunities from his typical wheelhouse, and his position on the No. 1 power-play unit also shifted. His wrist/hand injury still lingers.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-345) at Detroit Red Wings
The Lightning allowed Detroit to hang around in Tuesday’s 4-3 overtime win, so expect a tidier showing from Tampa Bay Thursday. After all, the Red Wings are in the running to win the Draft Lottery, scored the fewest goals per game and allowed the third most. Detroit’s penalty-kill percentage ranks second last in the league and is now 0-3 against Tampa Bay this season. Additionally, while the Red Wings are arguably the worst team in the league statistically, the Bolts are one of the best. Tampa Bay ranks first in both goals for and goal against per game and boasts a fourth-ranked 28.9 power-play percentage. The Lightning also enter with an active 15-3-1 record.
Detroit did receive a boost with the return of Dylan Larkin Tuesday, and the captain scored and registered seven shots. He and linemates Robby Fabbri and Anthony Mantha are a potential against-the-grain trio. For the Lightning, the Yanni Gourde–Steven Stamkos–Alex Killorn line was excellent Tuesday with a 64.7 Corsi For percentage and three high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five. Lightning power-play quarterback Victor Hedman is also worth a long look. He’s found the scoresheet in eight of the past nine games for two tallies, eight helpers, six power-play points and 21 shots.
Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars (-148)
Has the bubble burst for the Blackhawks? They’ve allowed 12 goals during back-to-back losses and have been just treading water and/or overachieving for most of the season. Chicago is arguably the most surprising team in the league, after all. Dallas caved in Chicago during Tuesday’s 6-1 win. The Stars held the Blackhawks to just 36 shot attempts and three high-danger scoring chances. In particular, Chicago superstar Patrick Kane didn’t mark the scoresheet and attempted just two shots.
For the Stars, the Roope Hintz–Jason Robertson–Joel Kiviranta line was especially dangerous with 11 shot attempts, three high-danger scoring chances and three goals at five-on-five. While they’ll likely struggle to duplicate those numbers Thursday, it’s worth highlighting Robertson’s growth over the past month. He’s recorded four goals and nine assists at even strength through the past 13 games, and his 4.37 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five pace all players with at least 150 minutes played this season.
Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames (-106)
Things appear to be turning around for the Canadiens, as they’ve grabbed eight of a possible 10 points through their past five games, and Carey Price is 3-0-1 with a .963 save percentage and just one goal allowed in each of those four starts. Additionally, Montreal has a case for the best team in the league at five-on-five. The Canadiens rank second in Corsi For percentage, third in goals for and first in goals against per 60 minutes, and they’ve got the third-best percentage of high-danger scoring chances for vs. against. Price has also proven capable of rebounding from difficult runs to play at an elite level for prolonged stretches multiple times over the past few seasons.
Meanwhile, Calgary has made a playoff berth nearly impossible with its active 3-6-2 stretch. Now six points behind the Canadiens in the standings, it’s now or never for Calgary, and there’s little reason to expect the Flames to make a postseason push. A middling team in almost all statistics, Calgary hasn’t received the level of play or consistency it sought in netminder Jacob Markstrom, and secondary scoring has been incredibly hard to come by. Calgary has only scored 22 goals without Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk or Elias Lindholm on the ice.
