Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a busy eight-game DFS slate in the NHL Tuesday. The Canadiens are the largest favorite on the docket with the Blue Jackets, Lightning and Rangers also all receiving significant chalk. The highest over/under totals are in the Philadelphia-Pittsburgh, Ottawa-Montreal and Vancouver-Winnipeg contests, and it’s worth noting that the Senators, Hurricanes, Canucks and Jets are all playing their second game in consecutive nights.
Here’s a lay of the land to kick-start your DFS research.
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New York Islanders (-153) at New Jersey Devils
These two teams are headed in opposite directions, with the Islanders sporting an 8-2-2 record recently, whereas the Devils have lost five of their past six and scored just 14 goals during the stretch. It should also be a favorable matchup for the New York power play. The Devils have the worst penalty-kill percentage in the league, after all. It will also be important to check Nico Hischier’s (face) status, as the 22-year-old center took a puck to the face during Saturday’s game and didn’t suit up Sunday.
The Islanders’ starting goalie will be in play Tuesday, too. Semyon Varlamov has been excellent all season with a .924 save percentage and 2.17 GAA, and No. 2 Ilya Sorokin has consecutive shutouts. Plus, the Devils have scored just 2.13 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season and have a 23rd-ranked 16.0% penalty-kill percentage. Even with the Devils playing poor defense of late and sporting the underwhelming penalty-kill percentage, the Islanders have won with a balanced offensive attack and solid team defense, so there aren’t many stacks that jump out.
Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers (-147)
After missing nearly two weeks of action to begin February, the Sabres returned to action and went 2-6-1 and scored just 14 goals during the stretch. Jack Eichel returned to action Sunday and was limited to just three shots, and the 23-year-old center is stuck on two goals and hasn’t scored since Jan. 28. Key offseason acquisition Taylor Hall hasn’t scored since Jan. 14 — the first game of the season. Amazingly, Buffalo still boasts the third best power-play percentage in the league with a 31.2% mark. The smart money is on Eichel and Hall improving their production, and the Sabres also cooling down with the man advantage.
The Rangers have a steep uphill climb playing without their best forward and No. 1 defenseman, as Artemi Panarin’s status remains up in the air, and Jacob Trouba (thumb) is likely out another two or three weeks. At least Filip Chytil (upper body) is expected back Tuesday. Considering the Sabres’ noted struggles, this could be a winnable game for the Rangers. Both Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin would be in play as DFS options. After all, the Rangers have surrendered the ninth-fewest goals per game in the league and have the seventh-ranked penalty-kill percentage (85.3%).
Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins (-111)
The Flyers won three consecutive games last week and are healthier than they’ve been in weeks with just Morgan Frost (shoulder) officially out of the lineup. Winger Travis Konecny cleared COVID-19 protocol Sunday and is considered a game-time decision Tuesday. Interestingly, Philadelphia ranks second in the league in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five but sports a middling 19.1% power-play percentage, so there could be improved results with the man advantage moving forward. It’s worth noting Pittsburgh’s penalty-kill percentage ranks 29th in the league, too. Additionally, Philly’s No. 1 netminder Carter Hart is coming off a shutout Sunday against Buffalo, and he’s probably also eyeing statistical to his underwhelming .899 save percentage and 3.35 GAA.
Pittsburgh’s power play should also have an opportunity to improve on their dismal, 26th-ranked 15.0 percentage, as the Flyers’ penalty-kill percentage (73.0%) ranks 27th in the league. The big story with the Penguins remains the lack of secondary scoring, as Evgeni Malkin’s year-long funk continues. He’s missed the scoresheet in four of the past eight games and has just four goals through 20 games all season. Most concerning is Malkin’s shot and shot attempts per hour are down from 9.56 and 16.43 last season to his current 7.35 and 13.27 marks. If the shot volume was similar, there would be more optimism that the veteran can turn his season around.
Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets (-183)
This is probably a must-win game for Columbus considering its active 1-5-2 record, and Detroit being one of the worst teams in the league. After all, the Blue Jackets are already seven points out of a playoff position. Most concerning is their lack of offense. Columbus has been held to just two goals through the past three games and have scored the ninth-fewest goals per game in the league this season. This sets up as a breakout matchup, though. Detroit has allowed the fifth-most goals per game in the league and sports the second worst penalty-kill percentage.
The Jack Roslovic–Patrik Laine–Cam Atkinson line is the most attractive for the Blue Jackets, as the trio has combined for an unsustainably low 5.45 shooting percentage at five-on-five and also skates together on the No. 1 power-play unit. For the Red Wings, there’s also potential for a solid offensive showing with Columbus allowing the fourth most goals per game and sporting the 26th-ranked penalty-kill percentage in the league. However, with Dyan Larkin (upper body) and Robby Fabbri (undisclosed) question, and Tyler Bertuzii (upper body) out of the lineup, it’s a bit of a tough sell.
Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens (-252)
The Canadiens catch Ottawa in a tough schedule spot Tuesday, as the Sens will be traveling after topping Calgary 5-1 Monday. Montreal will also be looking to snap a five-game losing streak, which includes back-to-back losses to Ottawa. Additionally, the Habs have lost three of their previous four meetings against the Senators. It would be shocking if Montreal didn’t play one of their most complete games of the season, which also reinforces why the Canadiens are such a significant favorite. The Senators aren’t going to lay down, though. Ottawa enters with an active 6-3 record.
The Canadiens are also rested after last playing Saturday and healthy — Josh Anderson (lower body) aside. Additionally, the Canadiens offense should be able to generate offense with Ottawa still allowing the most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and Montreal scoring the fourth most. In particular, look for Tyler Toffoli to have a strong showing. He registered six shots Saturday and has only scored three goals with a 8.7 shooting percentage through his past 10 outings. A move to the second line with Nick Suzuki and Jonathan Drouin should prove beneficial, too.
Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets (-121)
The Canucks won for just the third time in 14 games since Feb. 1 Monday with a 4-0 win over Winnipeg, and the Jets had their own four-game winning streak snapped. Vancouver will probably be turning to Braden Holtby in goal Tuesday, and the veteran has disappointed with an .893 save percentage and 3.51 GAA through 10 appearances. Winnipeg backup Laurent Brossoit shut out the Canucks in his most recent start and sports a high-end .935 save percentage and 2.24 GAA through his four games this year. It’s also worth noting that Winnipeg attempted 46 five-on-five shots to Vancouver’s 30.
Winnipeg made in-game adjustments to its top two lines Tuesday, too. Paul Stastny moved between Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, and Pierre-Luc Dubois centered Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor. It will be important to monitor the pregame line rushes because this should be a bounce-back opportunity for the Jets. After all, Vancouver has surrendered the third-most goals per 60 minutes in the league since Feb. 1. As noted, goaltending could also be a shortcoming for the Canucks.
Carolina Hurricanes (-122) at Nashville Predators
While there’s little doubt Carolina is the superior team, this could prove to be a difficult schedule spot and potential letdown game for the Hurricanes. This will be the third road game in four nights for Carolina, and the Canes are coming off consecutive comeback wins over the Panthers. Additionally, Nashville is on a solid run with wins in four of the past five games, albeit against lowly opponents Columbus and Detroit. It’s also worth noting that Nashville has turned to an up-tempo attack with the third most five-on-five shot attempts per 60 minutes and third best Corsi For percentage in the league since Feb. 1. The Preds’ 5.1 shooting percentage at five-on-five during the noted stretch has limited them to just 1.64 goals per 60 minutes — second fewest in the league.
It all adds up to a potential solid showing from Carolina netminder James Reimer, or at least an opportunity for him to pad his saves total. With an .897 save percentage and 2.97 GAA through 12 games, he’s definitely a ratio risk. For the Preds, Juuse Saros has won his past two starts with just two goals allowed on 59 shots, and veteran Pekka Rinne sports a .928 save percentage and 2.15 GAA over his past eight outings. Both teams have balanced their forward lines, which makes stacks harder to hone in on, but there are plenty of mini-stack options to consider. Additionally, Roman Josi and Dougie Hamilton both have top-five ranks in shots per 60 minutes among regular defensemen this season.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-176) at Dallas Stars
Dallas lost 5-0 to Tampa Bay Saturday to drop to a 2-6-4 record since late January, and the skid has the Stars sitting in the basement of the Central Division. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has won four straight and allowed just three goals during the stretch. The Lightning are allowing the fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and have the second-best penalty-kill percentage in the league, so the low-scoring Stars are probably in trouble Tuesday. After all, Dallas has scored just 1.86 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five — third fewest in the league.
Anthony Cirelli returned to action Saturday and collected a goal and an assist after missing six contests, and the Lightning are now back at full strength. Outside of Nikita Kucherov (hip), obviously. It’s a scary lineup for opposing teams, and Andrei Vasilevskiy has turned in consecutive shutouts to improve to a high-end 12-3-1 record, .938 save percentage and 1.75 GAA for the campaign. One interesting development for the Lightning is the move to pair Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev together more frequently. Both have been excellent this season. Hedman has 19 points through 19 games, and Sergachev has posted 14 points through the past 14 games.
