NHL first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for Mar. 1

There are seven games in the NHL on Monday, and the Avalanche are the lone sizable favorite. Calgary, Vegas, St. Louis and Winnipeg are also receiving notable chalk, and the only projected low-scoring games are the Minnesota-Vegas and St. Louis-Anaheim tilts.

Here’s a quick-hit primer with notes, recommendations and fades to aid your lineup assembly in DFS and seasonal leagues.

Carolina Hurricanes (-118) at Florida Panthers

This will be the third meeting of the season between the two clubs, and they’ve split the first two. Carolina’s 4-3 shootout win over Florida on Saturday was an incredibly close contest. The two teams each had 12 high-danger scoring chances, and the shot attempts were 49-48 in favor of the Hurricanes. It’s also worth noting that there were three power-play goals in the game — two for Carolina and one for Florida. Another close game is likely Monday.

For the Hurricanes, it will be worth checking out Teuvo Teravainen’s (concussion) status. Additionally, Andrei Svechnikov has only scored once through the past 12 games, so there’s likely positive regression ahead in the goals column considering his unsustainably low 3.6 shooting percentage. The Panthers are expected to keep Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau together at five-on-five, so the pair are both in play. They’ve clicked for 5.75 goals per hour over the past three years.

Calgary Flames (-157) at Ottawa Senators

This is the final matchup in a three-game set between these two teams. Ottawa won the first meeting 6-1, and Calgary rebounded with a 6-3 win Saturday. It was just the third win in nine games for the Flames, and it was also just the second time they scored more than three goals during the stretch. Ottawa, on the other hand, is riding along a respectable 5-3 stretch with 28 total goals. Generating offense hasn’t been a struggle for the Senators. However, preventing goals has been a year-long struggle for Ottawa. The Sens rank last in the league in goals against per game, and their 75.3 penalty-kill percentage is ninth-worst.

It was a well-rounded attack from Calgary on Saturday, as Mikael Backlund, Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane all recorded two points, and Elias Lindholm and Sean Monahan also both scored a goal. The Flames shuffled their top two lines with Lindholm joining Gaudreau and Monahan, whereas Backlund skated with Tkachuk and Mangiapane. Turning to Ottawa, the young core continues to move the needle. Drake Batherson has nine points — six goals — through his past seven games, albeit with an unsustainable 42.9 shooting percentage. Brady Tkachuk has produced at a point-per-game pace over the past eight games, and Tim Stutzle has as well over the past five contests.

Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jet (-136)

The Canucks went 2-9-2 in February while allowing a healthy 3.69 goals and12.6 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, and they’re quickly eliminating themselves from playoff contention. It’s also worth noting that Vancouver has lost four straight games and is 3-8 on the road this season, whereas Winnipeg has won four straight and sports an 8-3-1 home-ice record. Interestingly, Winnipeg has surrendered the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (13.47) in February. The big difference between the two teams has been goaltending. Winnipeg owns a .930 team save percentage and the Canucks have a .878 mark.

The Jets are projected to continue icing a loaded top six with Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Paul Stastny, Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers likely to make life difficult for the Canucks. Vancouver’s top line has been productive, too, though. Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser have combined for a high-end 5.71 goals per 60 minutes. There should be plenty of goals in this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-113) at Edmonton Oilers

The Maple Leafs stunned the Oilers on Saturday with a 4-0 win, but Edmonton attempted 58 shots and generated 14 high-danger scoring chances while limiting Toronto to just 38 and six. So, the puck luck was definitely in Toronto’s favor, and there’s ample reason to expect Edmonton to rebound Monday. Auston Matthews’ (hand/wrist) skated at practice Sunday, but his status is still up in the air. It would be surprising if Toronto were able to top Edmonton without him two games in a row, and there’s also the risk of Matthews playing at less than 100 percent, which could also impact his shooting ability.

Special teams will probably play a bigger factor in Monday’s game, too. Toronto converted on its only power-play opportunity and never took a penalty to go shorthanded. Both teams own high-end power plays and mediocre penalty-kill percentages. Again, it would be shocking if there wasn’t a significant pushback from Conor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on Monday, and both are a beginning point to consider when assembling lineups.

Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights (-143)

The Wild have won six consecutive games with a plus-13 goal differential and just 10 goals against. Minnesota also continues to dominate high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five with the third most generated and the second-fewest allowed. It’s also been a balanced attack with Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala, Ryan Hartman and Victor Rask all scoring at or above a point-per-game pace during the noted winning streak. In particular, Zuccarello has racked up three goals and eight assists. There’s also likely positive regression ahead of Minnesota’s league-low 7.9 power-play percentage, too.

With Minnesota’s impressive play in mind, this projects to be a tough matchup for both clubs. Vegas has won its past two games to improve to 12-4-1 for the campaign, which is good for first place in the West Division. The Golden Knights have also allowed the second-fewest goals per game and sport the fourth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league. Netminder Marc-Andre Fleury has posted elite numbers with a 9-3 record, .941 save percentage, 1.59 GAA and three shutouts, and the team has only surrendered 8.75 high-danger scoring chances per hour. There’s potential for this to be a low-scoring contest.

St. Louis Blues (-141) at Anaheim Ducks

St. Louis snapped a three-game losing streak with a wild 7-6 win over the Sharks on Saturday, and the Ducks will look to end their own six-game losing streak Monday. It’s definitely worth noting how many Blues are out of the lineup, which has definitely played a part in their recent struggles. Still, netminder Jordan Binnington is positioned to have a bounce-back showing after being pulled in Saturday’s game. After all, the Ducks have scored a league-low 1.95 goals per game and sport the third worst power-play percentage in the league.

It might not be the best matchup for the St. Louis offense, though. To start, the Ducks have the fifth-best penalty-kill percentage, and the Blues have the fourth-worst power-play percentage. The Blues have also generated the fifth-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league. It all adds up to Ducks netminder John Gibson being a potential flier candidate to consider. He’s sporting a discouraging .869 save percentage and 3.61 GAA through his past five starts, but he also has three shutouts and allowed two goals or fewer in six games this year. The potential is there.

Colorado Avalanche (-225) at San Jose

The Avalanche are the biggest favorite on the docket Monday, and they should have plenty of scoring opportunities. San Jose has surrendered the second-most goals per 60 minutes in the league and sports a target-worthy 76.9 penalty-kill percentage for the campaign. The Sharks have also surrendered 13 goals through their latest two games. It’s also worth pointing out how solid Colorado has been with a league-high 56.6 Corsi For percentage and 89.5 penalty-kill percentage. Additionally, Avs netminder Philipp Grubauer boasts a high-end .923 save percentage and 2.01 GAA for the campaign.

While the Sharks have a number of capable scorers, this checks out as one of the toughest matchups on Monday’s docket. As a result, it’s probably wise to focus on the Avalanche. In particular, Nathan MacKinnon has gone four games without a multi-point showing and has just a single goal and assist during the stretch. With the favorable setup, look for MacKinnon to have a strong showing, and he and linemates Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog will likely be popular stack candidates. Finally, with Cale Makar (upper body) not expected to play Monday, Samuel Girard should see power-play looks with the No. 1 unit. It’s a notable value boost for Girard.