Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are 13 games around the NHL Tuesday, with Colorado and Dallas the only two significant favorites. Additionally, there are a lot of coin-flip matchups. Here’s a quick-hit primer to help you set your DFS and fantasy lineups for the jam-packed slate.
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Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins (-139)
After scoring just two goals through their first three games, the Bruins have found the back of the net 10 times over their latest two. The big change has been the power play. Boston has converted four of their seven opportunities with the man advantage. Additionally, the Bruins’ new-look top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and Jake DeBrusk has a 71.1 Corsi For percentage, scored twice and generated four high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five over the past two games. While the Boston power play isn’t going to continue piling up goals, Pittsburgh does own an underwhelming 76.2 penalty-kill percentage to start the year.
Pittsburgh enters with four consecutive one-goal wins, and the first three were all in extra time. Additionally, Sunday’s 3-2 win over the Rangers is the first time there have been fewer than seven goals in a Penguins’ game. With Boston also clicking offensively, there’s a chance this turns into another high-scoring affair. Note that Pittsburgh also switched up their top six in practice Monday. Bryan Rust joined Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel atop the depth chart, whereas Kasperi Kapanen skated with Evgeni Malkin and Jason Zucker.
New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres (-108)
The big news in Buffalo is Jack Eichel is now six games in without a goal, and Rasmus Dahlin is still looking for his first point of the campaign. The two young stars combined for 14 shots, 17 attempts, and Eichel had four high-danger scoring chances himself. It’s only a matter of time before their respective statistical corrections kick in. Somewhat surprisingly, rookie Dylan Cozens skated with the taxi squad on Sunday, and Casey Mittelstadt skated with the second line in his place.
New York has lost four of five, including three straight, and the Rangers have also allowed at least three goals in each of those four losses. Artemi Panarin is leading the Rangers in points with two goals and four assists through the five games. However, he isn’t receiving a lot of help. Mika Zibanejad has been held to just a single tally and helper, whereas Ryan Strome and Chris Kreider both have only a single goal each. First overall pick Alexis Lafreniere has also gone five games without a point to start his career. Additionally, with Buffalo currently allowing the third-fewest high-danger scoring chances for 60 minutes, this might not be the best matchup for the Rangers to find their groove.
Philadelphia Flyers (-152) at New Jersey Devils
After sweeping a two-game miniseries against the Penguins, Philadelphia has now lost three of the past four games, including both against Boston while allowing 10 goals during the two-game set. It's always difficult to predict how impactful injuries will be to a team's success, but the Flyers clearly miss top center Sean Couturier and top-four defenseman Philippe Myers. Promising youngster Morgan Frost is also on injured reserve. It's also worth noting that while veteran Claude Giroux has been a somewhat inconsistent goal scorer throughout his career, he's yet to find the back of the net through six games despite seeing regular power-play time. It hasn't helped Giroux that he's started just 39.7% of his five-on-five shifts in the offensive zone.
One of the more surprising teams to start the year, the Devils are 3-1-1 and are coming off a 2-0 win over the Islanders on Sunday. It will be important to monitor Mackenzie Blackwood status as a young netminder is currently listed as day-to-day. Scott Wedgewood played the past two games and will likely start if Blackwood is out. It's definitely worth noting there is probably negative regression ahead of New Jersey's current excellent five-on-five team defense and league-high .976 save percentage. The Devils have surrendered just 0.74 goals per hour despite allowing a fifth-ranked 12.13 high-danger scoring chances for 60 minutes at five-on-five.
New York Islanders (-139) at Washington Capitals
The Capitals didn't play well last time out against Buffalo. Washington surrendered 16 total high-danger scoring chances and lost the possession battle (43.8 Corsi For percentage) at five-on-five. It’s also worth noting Sunday’s loss was the fourth straight game that went to overtime or a shootout for the Caps, and Washington has allowed at least three goals in all but one of its six games this season. The Islanders will probably prove to be a tough test with Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov and Ilya Samsonov out for both contests of the two-game set between the two clubs.
New York has been a mess offensively with just nine goals through five games, and only five skaters have collected three or more points. The Islanders have needed many goals though, as netminder Semyon Varlamov has been incredible to start the year. He’s stopped 81 of 82 shots through his three wins and also has two shutouts. It will be interesting to see if the Islanders are able to generate more offense Tuesday against the depleted Capitals. They may opt to stick to their defense-first style and play to their strengths.
Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets (-127)
It’s hard to have much of a read on the Panthers after beating Chicago twice with a combined 10-6 score during the miniseries. Additionally, Columbus traded their most talented center — albeit a disgruntled and unmotivated one — and then beat the reigning Stanley Cup Champions in convincing fashion on Saturday. The two players Columbus received for Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jack Roslovic and Patrik Laine, won’t suit up Tuesday. Expect Columbus to attempt to limit opportunities, as the Blue Jackets have surrendered a pedestrian 9.19 high-danger scoring chances per hour to start the year and just 7.04 before their two-game set against Tampa Bay.
It’s been a nice start for Carter Verhaeghe this season with two tallies and a helper to start the campaign, and he’s currently positioned to succeed skating with Aleksander Barkov at five-on-five. Verhaeghe piled up an impressive 82 points — 34 goals — through 76 games two years ago during his final season in the AHL, so the offensive track record is there. Also, with a goal and three helpers to start the season, Jonathan Huberdeau ranks eighth among all players in points per 60 minutes (3.63), yet he’s rarely mentioned among the league’s best scorers. Don’t overlook him in favorable matchups.
Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators (-182)
The Blackhawks swept the Red Wings and may have found something in rookie goalie Kevin Lankinen. After allowing five goals in his NHL debut last week the 25-year-old Finn saved 55 of 58 shots through consecutive wins against Detroit. Additionally, the Predators have only scored 2.4 goals while generating just 8.2 high-danger scoring chances per hour through their five games. It’s also worth noting that Alex DeBrincat is all but certain to miss both games of this miniseries after entering the COVID-19 protocol.
Nashville was outscored 10-3 by the Stars in consecutive games, and netminder Juuse Saros saved just 34 of the 42 shots he faced. Dallas also scored eight of the 10 goals with the man advantage. The Predators ranked third last with a 76.1 penalty-kill percentage last season, so while their recent form is extreme, it’s not entirely novel. Offensively, there’s also little spark. Through five games, Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg are the only Preds with more than two points.
Edmonton Oilers (-114) at Winnipeg Jets
The Oilers were able to beat Winnipeg 4-3 Sunday, but that was also a back-to-back set for the Jets. With both teams rested, look for another high-event, high-scoring game Tuesday. There were 133 shot attempts and 34 high-danger scoring chances between the two clubs, and considering their respective trends heading into this contest, it’s unlikely to be notably different Tuesday.
Winnipeg loaded up its No. 1 line with Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Kyle Connor, and the trio skated together again during Tuesday’s morning skate. However, they struggled at five-on-five Sunday with 17 shot attempts and seven high-danger chances allowed. Of course, matched up against Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi didn’t help Winnipeg’s top line. Puljujarvi is particularly interesting in the elevated role because he paces all Oilers in both shots and shot attempts per hour at five-on-five but has yet to score a goal.
Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild (-167)
Minnesota swept the two-game series in Los Angeles to start the season with consecutive 4-3 wins in overtime. The Wild have also been a far more successful team opportunity wise with 12.86 high-danger scoring chances generated compared to just 6.02 allowed. The Kings own 7.98 and 9.77 marks, respectively. Still, Los Angeles has split their past two miniseries against the Avalanche and Blues, including topping St. Louis 6-3 Sunday. Plus, Los Angeles has also scored more goals than Minnesota this season (20-18).
Anze Kopitar is leading the way for Los Angeles with 10 points — just a single goal — through six contests. Five of those assists have also come with the man advantage, and LA only has six power-play goals all year. Minnesota’s attack is led by Kirill Kaprizov, but after a three-point showing in the opening game, he’s been held to three assists through the last five contests. Neither team are probably a strong starting point for Tuesday’s DFS lineups.
Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars (-205)
There was no rust for the Stars after sitting out the first week-plus of the season. As noted, Dallas scored 10 goals — eight with the man advantage — through two games against Nashville. Detroit, on the other hand, was just swept by the Blackhawks while also allowing 10 goals, including three with the man advantage. Detroit also owned the worst penalty-kill percentage in the league last season (74.3), and currently owns a 72.2 mark through six games. The Red Wings clearly haven’t fixed their PK woes.
Even with a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals last year, it is a bit surprising to see Dallas explode out of the gate, and especially with their laundry list of injuries. The injury list is only growing, too. Still, Dallas only scored one five-on-five goal through the two-game series, and on paper, there are holes throughout the lineup. They’re probably not a full-fade candidate against Detroit, but the Red Wings also have some bounceback appeal.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-108) and Calgary Flames
While this will be Toronto’s eighth game of the campaign, it’s just the fifth for Calgary. Sunday’s matchup between the two clubs showcased the Maple Leafs holding on for the win despite losing the five-on-five possession battle (41.7 Corsi For percentage) and allowing 17 high-danger scoring chances. A deeper look at the numbers highlights it was just a tough night for Jimmy Vesey, Jason Spezza and Alexander Barabanov, as shot attempts favored Calgary 37-11 over their individual five-on-five ice time. Speeza is going to be replaced in the lineup by Joey Anderson Tuesday.
For the Flames, it’s still a little early to know just how good they are. They’re probably better than their current 2-1-1 record, and so far, Calgary’s best players have been their best players. Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson, Matthew Tkachuk and Mark Giordano sit atop the club’s scoring leaders. Jacob Markstrom has also been sound with a .928 save percentage and 2.26 GAA. The Flames have a respectable 53.4 Corsi For percentage while generating and allowing 29 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five through four games. A bounceback win is definitely in play Tuesday for Calgary, but note Frederik Andersen has been sharper of late with a .938 save percentage over his past three starts.
San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche (-235)
The 2021 Sharks sure have more bite than last season’s version and have split each of their first three two-game series. San Jose has also shown some additionally offensive punch scoring at least three goals in four of six contests. Goaltending and defense remain concerns, though. The Sharks have surrendered 21 goals, 69 high-danger scoring chances and own a fourth-worst .881 team save percentage to start the campaign. With Colorado stumbling a bit out of the gate (3-3 record), look for a strong showing from the Avalanche on home ice Tuesday.
After all, Colorado is the superior team — at least on paper. The Avs have scored more and allowed fewer goals, and the same thing goes for high-danger scoring chances. Colorado also owns the third highest Corsi For percentage (54.8) in the league at five-on-five compared to San Jose’s 21st-ranked 48.9 mark. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Nathan MacKinnon registered 20 goals, 31 assists and 172 shots through 32 home games last season, so look for a strong showing from No. 29.
Anaheim Ducks at Arizona Coyotes (-139)
There aren’t likely to be many fireworks in this one. Anaheim has been quietly competitive and playing in one-goal games in each of its past five. Additionally, there have only been 18 total goals through those five contests. The Ducks have generated just 7.42 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five while significantly losing the possession battle with a 45.4 Corsi For percentage. More concerning, though, is Anaheim’s fourth-ranked .950 team save percentage at five-on-five despite allowing the seventh most high-danger chances (11.02).
Arizona just faced the Golden Knights in a four-game series and only won once while scoring just five goals through the three losses. The Ducks should prove to be an easier opponent than Vegas was. Although this may be more influenced by facing the Golden Knights four times already than their own play, the Coyotes have surrendered a league-high 13.43 high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five — they’ve also generated a respectable 11.84. There could be some contrarian value for DFS players here because skaters from both teams are unlikely to be too popular.
St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights (-155)
Talk about a nightcap that packs some punch, this Blues-Golden Knights bout is arguably the marquee matchup on the docket. However, St. Louis hasn’t been its normal dominant self, splitting all three two-game series to start the year, including losing to both San Jose and Los Angeles on home ice in Game 2 of their respective series. Netminder Jordan Binnington hasn’t rediscovered his rookie form with an underwhelming .913 save percentage through his five starts, and after posting a .912 mark last year, it’s not encouraging. Additionally, first-year Blue Torey Krug has just a single goal and assist through six games. There’s buy-low potential with Krug after he paced all regular defensemen in points per 60 minutes over the past three years, but this might not be the ideal matchup.
Vegas has cruised to a 5-1 start with a plus-seven goal differential that ranks third. This should prove to be its toughest game, though. St. Louis is allowing the second fewest high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five in the league, after all. The focus on defense has limited the Blues to generating just 5.9 high-danger chances per hour themselves, though. As a result, this could prove to be a good spot for Robin Lehner — or Marc-Andre Fleury if Vegas opts out of the start pattern it's utilized to start the year.
