NHL first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for Jan. 22

It’s a busy Friday in the NHL, with eight games on the DFS docket. Interestingly, Colorado is the lone team in a back-to-back situation while also being the largest favorite on the docket. Pittsburgh, Toronto and Minnesota are also all notable favorites on home ice, whereas Arizona is a hefty home underdog. It’s also worth noting that Washington will be without four key cogs, and the Stars will hit the ice for the first time since losing in the Stanley Cup Finals in September.

Here’s a quick-hit primer to help with your fantasy and DFS lineups.

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Buffalo Sabres (-118) at Washington Capitals

Washington’s going to be without four key players for the next four games, and it could prove to be a huge blow. Offensively, Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov rank first and third, respectively, in points for the Caps over the past three years, and Ilya Samsonov is the club’s No. 1 goalie. Dmitry Orlov’s importance shouldn’t be undervalued, either. He’s averaged 22:17 of ice time per game dating back to the 2017-18 campaign. Overall, it might not be a huge drag for Washington, but it undoubtedly leaves their supporting cast thin.

With six helpers through four games to start the year, Jack Eichel is off to a respectable start. Still, the proven scorer has also registered 11 shots and 23 attempts without finding the back of the net. Add Taylor Hall’s high-end playmaking, and it’s hard to envision Eichel’s goal drought continuing much longer. Rasmus Dahlin is also in a similar situation. He’s been held off the scoresheet for four consecutive games, so after posting an eighth-ranked 2.08 points per hour among regular defenseman last year, statistical correction is ahead for the third-year blueliner.

New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins (-148)

This contest should be one of the higher-event games of the evening. There have been 31 total goals through Pittsburgh’s four games. The Rangers are also generating the sixth most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (12.87) in the league. In fact, even with a shutout on their game log, the Rangers still own an underwhelming .905 team save percentage, and the Pens rank last in the league with an .813 mark. So, while there’s potential for these two teams to attempt to lock it down and play better defense, it’s probably more likely to be a busy night for the goal judges.

Expect Kasperi Kapanen to be a popular DFS target after registering an assist in his season debut Tuesday. He’s projected to remain on a line with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. The Rangers have been shuffling their forward groups, and the top two look dangerous. Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Alexis Lafreniere has all kinds of potential, whereas Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin and Pavel Buchnevich have clicked for 4.89 goals and 22.01 high-danger scoring chances per hour dating back to last season. Those numbers move the needle. Anthony DeAngelo is projected to return to the lineup for New York, too. However, note that Adam Fox practiced with the No. 1 power-play unit Thursday. Fox has three assists with the man advantage through three games, too.

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs (-141)

Wednesday’s game certainly wasn’t the offensive free-for-all expected. There were just 10 total high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five in the low-scoring, 3-1 bout. It’ll be interesting to see if the trend continues. Edmonton paces the league in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, and the Maple Leafs rank eighth. As a result, high-end goaltending will likely be needed to keep the score as low as it was Wednesday.

The Maple Leafs will be without Joe Thornton (upper body) for the foreseeable future, and the new-look lineup is expected to feature Jimmy Vesey alongside Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner, and Zach Hyman joining John Tavares and William Nylander. It’s still a rock-solid top-six group, and as well as Thornton played, it’s not out of the question to suggest the Leafs might even be more dangerous with these combos. Edmonton hasn’t significantly strayed from their set lines all year, although that might change with James Neal potentially making his season debut.

Detroit Red Wings (-137) at Chicago Blackhawks

Detroit was the worst team in the league last season by a wide margin, and the Blackhawks might take the honors this year. The Red Wings have split their first two mini-series and have shown improved team defense with just 2.5 goals and 7.99 high-danger scoring chances per hour. However, their 45.5 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five doesn’t impress. Chicago, on the other hand, has a 50.7 Corsi For percentage, but the Blackhawks have only scored three five-on-five goals through their four losses. Look for another solid showing from veteran Thomas Greiss. He’s stopped 66 of 71 shots in his two starts — both losses — this year.

The Red Wings have shuffled its top two forward lines with Anthony Mantha sliding down to skate with Michael Rasmussen and Bobby Ryan, and Dylan Larkin centering an intriguing line with Vladislav Namestnikov and Filip Zadina. Similarly, the Blackhawks threw their lines in the blender last game, and it appears Pius Suter and Dylan Strome will start Friday’s contest in reversed roles. Suter is projected to center Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat, whereas Strome will center Dominik Kubalik and Philipp Kurashev. Looking for creative ways to have differentiated exposure to this game could pay off. It’s one of the games with the highest over/under totals.

San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild (-165)

The Sharks are 2-2 and coming off an impressive 2-1 upset win over the Blues Wednesday. Minnesota has also started strong with a 3-1 record and just three goals allowed through its past two contests. While this will be the Wild’s home opener, it’s also San Jose’s fifth consecutive road game. It will be interesting to see how teams handle long road trips this season, but until proven otherwise, it’s probably a still slight disadvantage.

Look for Minnesota to continue to play solid defense Friday. The Wild have surrendered just nine goals — six at five-on-five — through four games while limiting opponents to just 5.79 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. It’s a long-standing trend, after Minny surrendered the fewest high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five in the league last year.

Nashville Predators (-121) at Dallas Stars

This is Dallas’ season debut after missing the first week-plus because of COVID-19 protocols. The most notable news with the Stars is Tyler Seguin’s (hip) absence. Additionally, John Klingberg is questionable for the opener with an undisclosed injury. He didn’t practice Thursday. It’s not out of the question to take a wait-and-see approach with the Stars in DFS, especially with Nashville playing well to start the year.

The Predators have surrendered just seven goals through three games, including just 2.2 per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Additionally, 25-year-old netminder Juuse Saros boasts a sterling .950 save percentage and 1.50 GAA through his two starts. Just note, the Predators have been struggling to generate offense with just 16 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five through three games. The final score could be low in this contest.

Vegas Golden Knights (-162) at Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes lost the past two games in Vegas by a combined 9-4 score, and will now host the Golden Knights on their own ice Friday and Sunday. Sweeps aren’t uncommon in the NHL playoffs, especially when one team is arguably notably better throughout the entire lineup. Which isn’t to suggest Arizona should be written off entirely, but Vegas is a significant favorite for a reason.

The Golden Knights have surrendered just five goals and 28 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five through four games, and their .929 team save percentage ranks fifth in the league. The Coyotes don’t own the offensive firepower to compete with the Vegas night in, night out, but as mentioned winning at least once during their four-game series isn’t out of the question. Still, in a deep player pool, it’s probably not an ideal spot to target Arizona skaters as anything other than contrarian fliers. On the flip side, sprinkling in some Golden Knights will be a popular choice, per usual.

Colorado Avalanche (-205) at Anaheim Ducks

The Avs dropped a road game to the Kings Thursday, so it’s a short turnaround to rebound. Additionally, travel isn’t a factor despite it being back-to-back road games for Colorado. It will be important to monitor Colorado’s pregame skate, as the club went with 11 forwards Thursday. Opting to go that route again should probably be seen as a plus for the top Avs. Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon led the team in ice time, and only Cale Makar played more than Gabriel Landeskog.

Anaheim has only scored six goals through four games while generating just 25 high-danger scoring chances. Load up Colorado netminder Philipp Grubauer confidently. He’s stopped 44 of 46 shots in his two wins, and the only concern will probably be how popular he’ll be in DFS. Even when looking for contrarian fliers, there are enough alternatives throughout the player pool to comfortably fade the Ducks.