Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
It’s a six-game NHL DFS slate Thursday with three rematches. The Jets-Senators, Canadiens-Canucks and Avalanche-Kings bouts are all the second games of their respective miniseries. The Bruins and Islanders are both home-ice favorites, whereas Columbus, Ottawa, Vancouver and Los Angeles are all home underdogs. The Avalanche are the largest favorites of the night, and the two North Division matchups (Jets-Senators and Canadiens-Canucks) have the highest over/under totals.
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Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins (-134)
The Bruins have lost two straight, been off since Monday and were held to just a single goal in the two losses. The Flyers, on the other hand, have won three of their four games and are coming off a 3-0 shutout win over Buffalo on Tuesday. Philadelphia is also tied for the league lead in goals with 15 through four games — Boston has scored three times in three games. Add it all up, and the Bruins are probably short home favorites on reputation more than anything. Although, this could prove to be a low-scoring affair, which is probably more in the Bruins’ wheelhouse.
Even with Sean Couturier (ribs) and Morgan Frost (wrist) sidelined, the Flyers are deep and have a balanced scoring attack, as 12 players already have at least two points on the season. Netminder Carter Hart wasn’t sharp in his last start against Buffalo, but a rebound showing isn’t far-fetched considering Boston’s current offensive struggles. David Pastrank (hip) can’t return soon enough for the Bruins.
New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders (-157)
Sophomore Jack Hughes has found the scoresheet in all three games this season and is up to two tallies and four helpers. Additionally, while he’s still a possession/defensive liability (41.0 Corsi For percentage), Hughes is generating a healthy 11.07 high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five. Equally impressive, 24-year-old netminder Mackenzie Blackwood has been incredible, stopping 109 of 115 shots (.948 save percentage) to start the year. Just note, New Jersey has surrendered the third most shots and sixth most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes this season, so expecting some valleys to follow Blackwood’s current peak is probably wise.
Sticking to the crease, veteran Semyon Varlamov has consecutive shutouts to start the year for the Isles. He’s a strong candidate to have another solid game Thursday, too. New York has the worst Corsi For percentage (42.5) in the league but is allowing a relatively low 7.45 high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five. It’s not a novel trend, though. The Islanders had the third worst Corsi For percentage last season and still allowed the ninth fewest goals per hour at five-on-five in the league last season. Additionally, they prioritize quality chances — finishing last year with the fourth-most high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five despite attempting the sixth fewest shots.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-159) at Columbus Blue Jackets
After their past two games were postponed, the Lightning will be suiting up for the first time since last Friday. Expect Tampa to be rested and ready opposed to rusty. The Lightning took care of business in their miniseries against the Blackhawks to start the season, but the Blue Jackets are a step up in class — even if Columbus is just 1-2-1 to start the campaign. Additionally, it’s still a little unknown just how good Tampa Bay is without superstar Nikita Kucherov (hip) and after losing a handful of players during the offseason.
Jumping out immediately about the Blue Jackets is their lack of quality chances compared to their shot volume to start the campaign. Columbus ranks sixth in shots (31.41) per 60 minutes but has generated just 7.04 high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five, which ranks sixth-lowest. Additionally, high-profile Blue Jackets Max Domi, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Zach Werenski, Seth Jones and Cam Atkinson have combined for just a single goal and assist through four games. It all adds up to Tampa Bay netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy boasting a high-fantasy floor and likely being one of the more popular goalie selections in DFS.
Winnipeg Jets (-125) at Ottawa Senators
The Sens blew a 3-1 lead Tuesday and gifted Winnipeg a 4-3 overtime win. The Jets’ top players did put the team on their collective shoulders to complete the comeback. Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Josh Morrissey all had two points. The strong finish should keep Morrissey on the No. 1 power-play unit, which is a huge value boost. He’s logged 11:14 of ice time with the man advantage the past two games, after all. Winnipeg is expected to be without Patrik Laine (upper body) again Thursday, and it’s definitely a notable loss. Andrew Copp has seen an extended role as a result, and he collected an assist over 21:15 of ice time (3:20 with the man advantage) Tuesday.
Ottawa’s top line was dominant Tuesday with Josh Norris, Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson attempting 15 shots and generating five high-danger scoring chances in just 7:43 of five-on-five ice time. They surrendered a single shot attempt. That level of possession is unsustainable, but it definitely highlights their chemistry and effectiveness. For the campaign, they’ve clicked for 5.0 goals and 26.64 high-danger scoring chances overall while dominating at five-on-five with a 62.5 Corsi For percentage. Expect them to be popular value targets in DFS. It’s also worth noting that Alex Galchenyuk scored in his Ottawa debut while also attempting seven shots. He should remain in a scoring role with rookie Tim Stutzle (undisclosed) expected to miss Thursday’s game.
Montreal Canadiens (-121) at Vancouver Canucks
The Canadiens topped the Canucks 6-5 in a shootout Wednesday, so it’s a short turnaround for the two clubs. Expect backups Jake Allen and Thatcher Demko to start for their respective clubs, and their starts to the season have been polar opposites. Allen stopped 25 of 26 shots in his Montreal debut, whereas Demko has surrendered nine goals on 77 shots during his two losses. Vancouver’s power-play was especially effective and went 3-for-6 Wednesday, it’s a concerning trend for Montreal, as the Canadiens owned an underwhelming 78.7 penalty-kill percentage last season and have already allowed eight power-play goals this year. Interestingly, Vancouver has also been a mess shorthanded with a whooping 12 power-play goals allowed already this season.
Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller and Quinn Hughes all had multi-point games for the Canucks on Wednesday, andTyler Toffoli scored a hat trick with Jesperi Kotkaniemi also recording a goal and an assist for the Habs. While there’s plenty of reason to expect another high-scoring game Thursday, it’s probably just as likely for the two teams to tighten up defensively. Both head coaches will want their teams to be more defensively conscious anyway.
Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings (-245)
Another rematch, Colorado is again a huge favorite after topping Los Angeles 3-2 Tuesday. The score was closer than the actual game, as Colorado cruised to a three-goal lead and had nine high-danger scoring chances to Los Angeles’ three through the first two periods. The Kings rallied with two third-period tallies, though. It’s also noteworthy that the Nathan MacKinnon–Mikko Rantanen–Gabriel Landeskog line was largely held in check. The trio combined for a goal and three assists overall while skating to 42.1 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. It’s rare to see them lose the possession battle.
Expect Colorado’s top players to be popular DFS targets again Thursday, and with Los Angeles 0-1-2 with just four five-on-five goals this season, Philipp Grubauer projects to have another strong outing. The Kings likely outkicked their coverage Tuesday, so a more lopsided win for the Avs is within reach.
