Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It’s a smaller five-game DFS slate in the NHL on Wednesday. The largest favorites on the docket are the Golden Knights and Blues, whereas the Ducks and Canucks are both smaller home underdogs. The Toronto-Edmonton matchup could prove to be must-watch television, as the two clubs split last season’s two-game series and combined for 15 goals.
Here’s a quick-hit primer to help when assembling your DFS and fantasy lineups.
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Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs (-155)
In the marquee matchup of the evening, the reeling Oilers face off against the rolling Maple Leafs. Toronto has been dominant at five-on-five through its past two games with a 66.0 Corsi For percentage, and the Leafs have generated 30 high-danger scoring chances while allowing just 16 overall. It’s worth noting the big four are doing the heavy lifting, though. Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander and Mitchell Marner have combined nine goals and 12 assists through the first four games, and it’s worth adding that Tavares has begun 73.0% of his five-on-five shifts in the offensive zone — an interesting trend to watch after he started just 53.2% last year.
Edmonton’s underwhelming start is a legitimate concern. The Oilers have the single 5-2 win while being outscored 15-5 in their three losses, including two straight to the Canadiens. A road game in Toronto might not be the best setup to flip the switch, either. As noted, the Maple Leafs are clicking of late, and Edmonton owns a discouraging 45.8 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five to start the season. It’s definitely worth highlighting that the Oilers lead the league in high-danger scoring chances per hour to start the campaign, and Toronto ranks fourth, so there could be a lot of offense here.
San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues (-186)
The Sharks made Monday’s 5-4 loss look close despite significantly losing the five-on-five possession battle (38.0 Corsi For percentage) and not generating a high-danger scoring chance at even strength. Logan Couture and Brent Burns led the way offensively with three points each, and San Jose has now scored a respectable 10 goals through three games. However, the Sharks’ team save percentage is a dismal .865, and after posting the second-lowest mark (.895) in the league last season, San Jose might have to score their way to wins — and high-scoring games are great for DFS.
Interestingly, St. Louis’ team save percentage is a third-worst .857 after posting the 10th-best mark last year. Expect statistical correction ahead for netminder Jordan Binnington, which could start Wednesday. The Blues boast a well-rounded offensive attack with eight different skaters already with two points through three games. It warrants mention that Justin Faulk scored twice and registered eight shots on 11 attempts in Monday’s win, but he’s hardly receiving any power-play time, so it will be difficult to rely on him without exposure to one of the man-advantage units.
Minnesota Wild (-136) at Anaheim Ducks
Game 1 of this miniseries was dominated by the Wild, but Anaheim netminder John Gibson took things into his own hands with a 34-save shutout. Minnesota registered 67 shot attempts and 14 high-danger scoring chances to no avail. This looks like the blueprint for Anaheim to steal wins this season, although it's going to be tough for Gibson to rise to the occasion night in, night out. After all, Anaheim has just four goals through three games.
Minnesota has also been stingy to start the season with just seven goals surrendered through three games, and last season, the Wild allowed the fewest high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five. It all adds up to another likely low-scoring contest Wednesday. Still, there are plenty of reasonably and low-priced Wild as potential price-fit targets or contrarian options. Additionally, considering this is a projected low-scoring affair, both starting goaltenders are in play.
Montreal Canadiens (-127) at Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver has lost three straight and been outscored 13-4 in the process. Braden Holtby has only stopped 60 of 66 shots through his starts, whereas Thatcher Demko owns an even worse .883 save percentage in his two losses. Up front, third-year center Elias Pettersson has been limited to just a single assist through four games, and with a three-game set ahead against the rolling Canadiens, the Canucks need to turn things around in a hurry.
It won’t be easy, though. Montreal swept Edmonton during their two-game series and allowed just a single goal in each game. Offensively, the Canadiens have spread the scoring around with five players already up to at least three points and another four with two. Jeff Petry has impressed to start the campaign, and his value is on the rise skating with the No. 1 power-play unit. The veteran defenseman is a proven cross-category producer, so extra offensive opportunities pave the way for another sneaky-good fantasy showing.
Arizona Coyotes at Vegas Golden Knights (-200)
Typically, there’s correlation between high-end teams and high-end fantasy production, but that’s not exactly the case with Vegas. The Golden Knights are winning, spreading the offense around and generally high priced in daily contests. Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty are off to excellent starts, and the William Karlsson–Jonathan Marchessault–Reilly Smith line is also clicking. While it can be difficult to pinpoint exactly who to target from Vegas, there are solid options throughout the lineup. Additionally, whoever starts in goal — Robin Lehner or Marc-Andre Fleury — is also in play.
The Coyotes aren’t positioned for fantasy success Wednesday, and making matters worse, this is just the second of four straight contests against the superior Golden Knights. It’s worth noting that Kyle Capobianco received an uptick in power-play time with Oliver Ekman-Larsson (lower body) out of the lineup. The 23-year-old defenseman recorded 37 points through 42 AHL games last season and could be a low-priced flier to consider moving forward. Expect Darcy Kuemper or Antti Raanta to be busy in goal, so whoever receives the starting nod checks out as an against-the-grain candidate.
