Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
It’s another eight-game slate for our DFS pleasure in the NHL Tuesday. Colorado is the largest favorite on the docket, with the Rangers, Panthers and Blue Jackets close behind. The Washington-Pittsburgh, Chicago-Florida and Winnipeg-Ottawa matchups all have the highest over/under total at 6.5. Here’s a quick-hit preview of each game with notes and recommendations to aid assembling your fantasy and DFS lineups.
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New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers (-162)
The Devils took the Bruins to extra time in both games of their opening series and were led by last year’s No. 1 overall pick Jack Hughes. The sophomore collected three assists, eight shot attempts and four high-danger scoring chances. The Rangers allowed a healthy 22 high-danger chances in their own miniseries against the Islanders, so there should be chances for Hughes and his projected linemates Kyle Palmieri and Yegor Sharangovich. Goalie MacKenzie Blackwood is off to a nice start with a .954 save percentage and a 1.38 GAA through two starts. Wins might not be plentiful, but there’s potential for a huge workload with good ratios.
After being shut out by the Islanders in the season opener, the Blueshirts flipped the script with a 5-0 win. It was a dominant offensive showing for the Rangers, and there’s a lot to like about their scoring potential moving forward. The forward corps is three lines deep, and the buy-low window for Pavel Buchnevich could close quickly. Coming off Saturday’s shutout, Alexander Georgiev will look to stay hot while also holding off rookie Igor Shesterkin.
Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers (-150)
Buffalo upset Philadelphia Monday with a 6-1 win, and Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall collected three assists each. Sam Reinhart joined the big two at five-on-five, so with a loaded top line, look for the three to be one of the toughest matchups for opponents in the league. The lineup change is probably going to be a huge blow to Tage Thompson’s value. Look for Rasmus Dahlin to hit the scoresheet soon. He’s quarterbacking the No. 1 power-play unit and averaging 21:56 of ice time through three games without a point. The offense is coming, especially if he continues to spend over half his ice time skating with Eichel.
It could take a few more games for the Flyers to figure things out with Sean Couturier (ribs) sidelined. His two-way game was greatly missed Monday, and the Flyers utilized seven different line combinations at five-on-five to try and find the right mix. Expect the line juggling to continue, which isn’t ideal for DFS stacks. Morgan Frost received the biggest boost in ice time with Couturier out, and the second-year center drove possession with a 54.6 Corsi For percentage. With his pedigree in mind, Frost is a player to monitor for the short term, and he could earn an extended role.
Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers (-175)
The Panthers topped the Blackhawks 5-2 Sunday, but it was a low-event game. There were just 10 combined high-danger scoring chances. The Blackhawks are now 0-3 and are quickly resembling a fantasy wasteland. Sophomore Dominik Kubalik has yet to find the scoresheet this year, and statistical correction should be expected after he recorded an unsustainably high 19.1% shooting percentage as a rookie.
Jonathan Huberdeau collected three points during Sunday’s win, whereas No. 1 center Aleksander Barkov picked up just a single assist. The two aren’t currently skating together at five-on-five, which is a potentially hit to both of their fantasy stocks. However, it’s likely more of a blow to Barkov. Other Florida news of note is Keith Yandle did dress Sunday and scored a goal. The veteran and current NHL ironman hadn’t been skating with the regulars ahead of the game.
Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins (-136)
Pittsburgh picked up its first win of the season beating Washington 4-3 in a shootout Sunday. The Penguins are still waiting for Evgeni Malkin to find his form, as the veteran center has yet to find the scoresheet and has been limited to just five shots and a single high-danger scoring chance through the past two contests. Considering Malkin posted a fourth-ranked 3.82 points per hour over the previous three seasons, he shouldn’t be quiet much longer. Additionally, Kasperi Kapanen is projected to make his Pittsburgh debut on the No. 1 line with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel.
It’s been a tough start for netminder Ilya Samsonov. The 23-year-old Russian has yet to collect a win, and his .868 save percentage leaves a lot to be desired. Norris Trophy hopeful John Carlson has also been held off the scoresheet the past two games and checks out as a bounceback candidate.
Winnipeg Jets (-115) at Ottawa Senators
This is a potentially tough spot for the Jets after losing to Toronto 3-1 Monday. Ottawa played well against the Maple Leafs in its first game of the season, but then struggled in Game 2 of the back-to-back set. Offensively, Winnipeg missed Patrik Laine Monday, and the team went 0-for-4 with the man advantage and generated just three high-danger scoring chances. Laine’s status will be important to monitor ahead of Tuesday’s game.
With Winnipeg allowing 15 high-danger chances to Toronto Monday and likely turning to backup netminder Laurent Brossoit, Ottawa could be positioned to do well offensively Tuesday. The Ottawa top-six forward group features a number of cost-effective options to slide into DFS lineups, too. Thomas Chabot is also off to a nice start with two points — one goal — through two games while averaging a hefty 25:47 of ice time, including 6:40 with the man advantage. His role should lead to a career-best offensive showing for the 23-year-old defenseman.
Columbus Blue Jackets (-175) at Detroit Red Wings
Columbus held off Detroit for a 3-2 win Monday despite losing the possession battle and allowing five more high-danger scoring chances — Detroit generated 12 to Columbus’ 7. Look for Elvis Merzlikins and Jonathan Bernier to start Game 2 of the back-to-back set, and it’s probably a notable goaltending advantage for the Blue Jackets. Merzlikins posted a .923 save percentage and 2.35 save percentage with five shutouts last season as a rookie, after all. However, these two teams will probably play another low-scoring game.
Bobby Ryan is having an excellent start for Detroit. The veteran has three goals through his first two games, and he’s locked into a scoring role, including skating on the No. 1 power-play unit. Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi were the best line for the Red Wings on Monday. The trio attempted 21 shots over 14:13 of shared five-on-five time. For Columbus, look for Pierre-Luc Doubois’ game-winning goal Monday to kick-start an offensive surge for the talented 22-year-old center.
Carolina Hurricanes (-110) at Nashville Predators
Vincent Trocheck, Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov all registered a goal and an assist in Monday’s 4-2 win, and Carolina also held the Predators to just six high-danger scoring chances. However, Nashville did win the possession battle with a 53.2 Corsi For percentage. It’s rare for the Hurricanes to attempt fewer shots than their opponent, but as noted, Carolina was still able to limit Nashville’s quality chances. Look for Petr Mrazek to start Tuesday, and he’s off to a respectable start with a .912 save percentage and a shutout win over Detroit in the season opener.
Nashville’s No. 1 line of Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg had a strong showing Monday generating 10 shot attempts and two high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five. The trio shared the ice for 1472:28 of ice time over the past three years and scored 5.01 goals per hour, so there’s long-standing chemistry and a history of success. Look for Juuse Saros to return to the Nashville crease, and the 25-year-old netminder is 2-0 with a .959 save percentage and 1.50 GAA to start the campaign.
Colorado Avalanche (-235) at Los Angeles Kings
Colorado has been off since dominating St. Louis 8-0 last Friday, and now the Avalanche land in a layup matchup against Kings. Los Angeles allowed eight goals and 24 high-danger scoring chances to Minnesota during its two-game series to open the season, and the Wild don’t own the same offensive skill as the Avs. After all, Colorado’s No. 1 line of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog alone were on the ice for five goals, nine high-danger scoring chances and 28 shots attempts through 18:25 of shared ice time last time out.
As probably should be expected, veterans Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter have led the way for Los Angeles to start the season, but there’s just not a lot to like about the Kings in this matchup. Colorado allowed the fourth fewest five-on-five goals in the league last year and are coming off a shutout over the high-end Blues.
