Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s a five-game DFS slate in the NHL Friday, with the Lightning and Maple Leafs the largest favorites on the docket. Four of the five contests are also the second of a miniseries, including a matchup between Washington and Buffalo, who faced off Thursday night. Ottawa is the only team playing its first game of the season, hosting Toronto. Here’s a quick-hit look at all five games to aid your fantasy and DFS lineups.
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Washington Capitals (-129) at Buffalo Sabres
Washington topped Buffalo 6-4 Thursday despite generating just five high-danger scoring chances — and only three at five-on-five. Ilya Samsonov also stopped just 22 of 26 shots. It’s not overly surprising that the Caps are now a shorter road favorite in the second game of the back-to-back set. Veterans Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson and T.J. Oshie all had multi-point showings for Washington. With Evgeny Kuznetsov and Jakub Vrana also capable offensive contributors, scoring shouldn’t suddenly become a problem for the Capitals.
Buffalo might be the more interesting team at this stage of the game because of the Jack Eichel–Taylor Hall combo. The duo combined for two goals and two assists Thursday, and the fantasy value of their linemate Tage Thompson is on the rise, too. Rasmus Dahlin also had a strong first outing. The third-year defenseman paced the Sabres in ice time (25:25) and shot attempts (six). Additionally, after a strong showing in the IIHF World Junior Championship, Dylan Cozens found the scoresheet in his first career NHL game. It could be hard to keep the rookie out of a top-six role for too long.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers (-112)
Another rematch, after Philadelphia handled Pittsburgh easily Wednesday with 2018 first-round selection Joel Farabee exploding for four points — three assists — during the 6-3 win. If he can take a step forward offensively this year, Philadelphia will have one of the deepest scoring attacks in its division. First-year Flyer Erik Gustafsson also showed off his offensive touch with two helpers. Don’t forget, the 28-year-old defenseman posted an elite 2.02 points per 60 minutes during the 2018-19 campaign, which included a 2.4 mark from Dec. 1 through the end of the year. It’s unlikely Gustafsson returns to that level of production, but he’s definitely capable of being a reliable offensive contributor with a high floor in DFS because of his shot volume and willingness to block shots. Finally, it’s worth noting Carter Hart is now 21-3-2 with a .942 save percentage and 1.69 GAA on home ice since the beginning of last season.
For the Penguins, it was interesting to see the third-line drive possession with an otherworldly 85.7 Corsi For percentage. Obviously, it’s a small sample, but if Mark Jankowski, Brandon Tanev and Jared McCann can continue to capitalize on their opportunities (two goals Wednesday), Pittsburgh will also be a difficult matchup. Expect Evgeni Malkin to find the scoresheet Friday. He tied with Tanev for a team-high five shot attempts in Wednesday’s loss. Additionally, Tristan Jarry could provide bounceback value after a tough first start. He stopped just 19 of 25 shots.
Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning (-275)
It wasn’t surprising to see the Lightning cruise to victory over Chicago Wednesday, and it shouldn’t surprise to see a similar result Friday. Tampa Bay is expected to welcome Tyler Johnson back to the top six, and while it’s been an interesting offseason for the 32-year-old forward, he’s probably a decent low-priced flier in DFS. Fitting in a few of the more expensive Lightning is encouraged, but they’re also likely to be highly owned.
The Blackhawks surrendered 10 high-danger scoring chances and were down 3-0 after the first period. Particularly concerning, Chicago’s top line of Dylan Strome, Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat were held in check and registered a discouraging 37.5 Corsi For percentage. Young defenseman Adam Boqvist also had a rough outing with a 30.0 Corsi For percentage and just 10:52 of ice time at five-on-five. He’s going to need to take full advantage of his power-play opportunities to move the fantasy needle. It’s probably going to be a long season in the Windy City.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-205) at Ottawa Senators
Hosting their provincial rival is a great way for the Senators to start the 2021 campaign. Ottawa has quickly assembled one of the best young rosters in the league and has supported it with a number of veteran pieces in Derek Stepan, Cedric Paquette, Braydon Coburn and Erik Gudbranson. Those four probably aren’t going to have a significant offensive impact, but they should make the Senators more difficult to play against. Additionally, Matt Murray could prove to be a sneaky fantasy option in nets. He should see the bulk of starts and face a lot of shots, which will provide an opportunity to contribute in wins and save percentage.
The Maple Leafs are significant favorites, and their top scorers are likely going to popular DFS targets. They’re also still a work in progress defensively and in goal. Toronto surrendered 13 high-danger scoring chances to Montreal Wednesday, and Frederik Andersen allowed four goals on 32 shots. The big four — Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander — all shined against the Canadiens and combined for three goals, five assists and 36 shot attempts. This sets up as a high-scoring affair, so exploring creative ways to implement a game stack with players from both clubs should be considered.
St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche (-137)
St. Louis held Colorado in check Wednesday with a well-balanced attack. Robert Thomas, Oskar Sundqvist and Jaden Schwartz were particularly effective, and while Ryan O’Reilly, Brayden Schenn and David Perron lost the possession battle (30.4 Corsi For percentage), they only allowed two high-danger scoring chances playing almost exclusively against Nathan MacKinnon. It will probably require another bend-don’t-break approach Friday, and if successful, Jordan Binnington could provide a huge return on investment in DFS again.
The Avalanche are projected to return Gabriel Landeskog to the No. 1 line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which should have your attention. The trio have skated together for 2655:25 through 178 games over the past three years and scored 5.4 goals per hour. The move hurts Colorado’s forward balance, but it reunites one of the league’s best lines. This should be a solid game, and after an underwhelming season debut (four goals allowed on 32 shots), Philipp Grubauer is a potential rebound candidate.
