Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a tidy five-game DFS slate in the NHL Friday. The Lightning are huge favorites with the Golden Knights also receiving significant chalk. Philadelphia is a short underdog at home, whereas Florida and Anaheim are both small home favorites.
All five games have low over/under totals, but the Bruins-Flyers matchup has the potential to be one of the more high-scoring games on the docket. Here’s a quick-hit primer with matchup notes for your DFS and fantasy lineups.
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Boston Bruins (-130) at Philadelphia Flyers
The Bruins stormed back from a 3-1 deficit with three unanswered power-play goals to top Philadelphia 4-3 in overtime Wednesday to improve to 7-1-2 for the campaign. Boston has also won six of its past seven contests, and the Patrice Bergeron–Brad Marchand–David Pastrnak line has been scorching hot with nine goals over the past three games since Pastranak returned to the lineup. No. 1 defenseman Charlie McAvoy has also been on a scoring binge with nine points over the past six games while logging 23:26 of ice time, including 2:52 as the quarterback of the No. 1 power-play unit.
Wednesday’s loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Flyers, and they’re a short home underdog again Friday. It would be surprising if there wasn’t a decent pushback from Philadelphia, especially since they blew a two-goal lead in the third period Wednesday. The Flyers bring a balanced scoring attack with James van Riemsdyk, Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Joel Farabee, Travis Konecny and Kevin Hayes all flirting with or already scoring at a point-per-game pace. Philadelphia has scored the sixth most goals per hour at five-on-five and own a 10th-ranked 22.7% power-play percentage. Even with Boston’s reputation as a defensively responsible club, there’s still potential for this to turn into a high-scoring affair.
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning (-375)
The Red Wings lost 5-1 to Tampa Bay Wednesday, and the game was over early, as the Lightning were up 3-0 five minutes into the game. The odds suggest the same thing will happen again Friday. While there’s every reason to expect Tampa Bay to win — and probably handily — this game, the Lightning still have to score more goals than the Red Wings, and big favorites lose. Ottawa topped Montreal (-310) Thursday, after all.
Still, the Lightning will be popular targets in daily contests Friday, and for good reason. They’ve scored an impressive 3.22 goals and generated 13.82 high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five, which are both high-end marks. Detroit, on the other hand, has lost nine straight while allowing 30 total goals. The Red Wings’ 68.6% penalty-kill percentage is also the third lowest in the league. Additionally, while there is some contrarian appeal among Detroit’s top scorers the juice might not be worth the squeeze, if Andrei Vasilevskiy is manning the crease.
Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers (-116)
Nashville pulled off a 6-5 overtime win over the Panthers Thursday, and Filip Forsberg had a monster showing with two goals and three assists. Similarly, Jonathan Huberdeau also had five points — three goals — to lead the Panthers. This was a somewhat surprising high-event, high-scoring game, as both teams entered Thursday’s matchup ranked sixth (Florida) and eighth (Nashville) in goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. However, there is one trend lingering around the Predators dating back to last season. Nashville has allowed 15 power-play goals through 10 games for a league-low 63.4% penalty-kill percentage, which follows last year’s third worst 76.1 mark.
With Nashville’s shorthanded struggles in mind, Florida’s power-play units are in a favorable spot. Although, there’s probably some statistical correction ahead for the Preds, too. It’s worth noting Ryan Johansen left Thursday’s game with an undisclosed injury, and if he’s unable to suit up Friday, it would be a notable blow for the Preds. Nashville doesn’t have a lot of scoring depth, and while Johansen has only four assists through 10 games, it still puts a lot of pressure on Matt Duchene and Filip Forsberg to drive the offense. Florida would be able to create favorable easier five-on-five matchups, too.
Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights (-245)
The Golden Knights have been off since last Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see if there’s any rust following the long layoff. It should still be an easy game for Vegas with Los Angeles sporting a 3-4-2 record while allowing the fourth most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league. Additionally, Jonathan Quick has been a disappointment in goal for the Kings with a .885 save percentage and 3.54 GAA through five starts. It will be interesting to see if Cal Petersen begins to cut into his playing time, as the 26-year-old netminder boasts .930 and 2.29 marks.
With the favorable matchup and big chalk, expect the Golden Knights to be popular DFS targets Friday. Their top scorers — Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and Shea Theodore — are all in play, but there’s some intriguing low-priced considerations, too. Chandler Stephenson centers Stone and Pacioretty, Cody Glass should receive meaningful minutes, and Zach Whitecloud has impressed and could see an increased role if Alex Pietrangelo doesn’t return from COVID-19 protocol.
San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks (-115)
The Sharks have also been off for over a week having last played Jan. 28, and they were handled easily by the Avalanche by a combined 10-3 score in consecutive losses. It’s also worth noting that San Jose still hasn’t played a home game this year. This is definitely a winnable road game, though. The Ducks have surrendered the ninth fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes and own the ninth best team save percentage despite allowing the seventh most high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five. It all adds up to John Gibson needing to be spectacular in net night in, night out for Anaheim to win.
The Ducks just aren’t generating offense or scoring goals. They’ve been held to a league-low 19 total goals through 11 games while also generating just 8.28 high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five. Additionally, a quick look at Anaheim’s lineup highlights a considerable lack of offensive firepower. San Jose, on the other hand, has shown glimpses with three goals or more in five of eight games. As noted, the outcome of this game will probably have a lot to do with John Gibson’s play. If he’s dialed in, it will likely be a low-scoring contest.
