Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
With three postponed games, there are only eight NHL matchups included in DFS contests Thursday. The Canadiens are the largest favorites on the docket with the Hurricanes, Maple Leafs and Blues also all receiving notable chalk. The Stars-Blue Jackets, Hurricanes-Blackhawks, Coyotes-Blues and Flames-Jets matchups are all rematches, and the Capitals-Rangers, Canucks-Maple Leafs and Senators-Canadiens contests all have the highest over/under total.
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Washington Capitals at New York Rangers (-108)
The Capitals finally lost in regulation Monday and dropped to a 6-1-3 record, good for third in the Eastern Division. The club has had impressive results considering there have been regulars consistently missing time over the past two weeks. There are definite concerns moving forward, though. The Capitals own the second-worst Corsi For percentage at five-on-five, and their 1.048 PDO is fourth-highest in the league. Additionally, the shine may be coming off rookie goalie Vitek Vanecek, as he’s allowed 10 goals (.905 save percentage) through his past three starts. Starpower still goes a long way, though. Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson are all producing at a point-per-game pace or better, and a second-ranked 40.9% power-play percentage has also helped.
The Rangers have taken five of a possible six points through their past three games, including a sound 3-1 win over the Penguins last time out. There’s oodles of talent in the New York lineup, and Mika Zibanejad in particular is ripe for statistical correction. After piling up 75 points — 41 goals — through just 57 games last season, the 27-year-old center has been limited to just a single goal and assist to start the 2021 campaign. His 3.3 shooting percentage is unsustainably low, and especially with his go-to role (20:33 of ice time per game with 4:54 on the power play). Additionally, Zibanejad has attempted a healthy 53 shots and 11 have been high-danger scoring chances.
Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers (-112)
This is an interesting matchup because the Panthers have been dominant this season with a 5-0-1 record while allowing the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league. However, Florida also hasn’t faced the toughest competition with Columbus, Chicago and Detroit all below .500. Nashville probably doesn’t represent a tough matchup, either. Nashville has lost five of its past seven contests and neither of the wins were in regulation.
The biggest mismatch for the two clubs is special teams. The Panthers boast a fourth-ranked 36.8% power-play percentage, whereas Nashville ranks last in the league with a 64.9 penalty-kill percentage. Additionally, the Panthers have a core of consistent scorers lead by Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau, but the Predators have struggled to find the back of the net with Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson leading the team in points with six through nine games. It’s also worth noting the Preds haven’t won on the road all season.
Dallas Stars (-122) at Columbus Blue Jackets
The Stars topped the Blue Jackets 6-3 Tuesday and chased netminder Joonas Korpisalo from the crease in the second period. Elvis Merzlikins replaced Korpisalo and stopped all nine shots he faced, and the Blue Jackets mounted a minor comeback with two third-period goals, but Dallas was in control most of the game. The Stars doubled the Blue Jackets in shot attempts (28-14) through the first two periods.
The Joe Pavelski–Jamie Benn–Alexander Radulov line was most impressive for Dallas, whereas Columbus had its lines in the blender after their poor start. It will be important to check in on their projected combinations ahead of Thursday’s game, but with so many potential moving pieces, head coach John Tortorella could switch things up throughout the game again. While teams sweeping miniseries to start the year have been rather rare, the Blue Jackets will likely have to face Anton Khudobin Thursday, and he’s been solid with a .922 save percentage and 2.17 GAA through four starts.
Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens (-310)
There are all kinds of ways to illustrate this mismatch, but highlighting the huge disparity in goal differential seems most fitting. Montreal has outscored its opponents by 17 goals through 10 games, whereas Ottawa has been outscored by 24. This will also be the Senators sixth consecutive road game, and they’re also reeling along a nine-game losing streak, and the Canadiens are 7-1-2 to start the campaign.
It’s been a balanced scoring attack for the Habs, too. They’ve got 10 players with at least two goals and 11 skaters have at least four points. Tyler Toffoli and Jeff Petry are leading the way, but the Nicholas Suzuki–Josh Anderson–Jonathan Drouin line is also doing consistent offensive damage with 5.16 goals, 14.18 high-danger scoring chances and a 58.0 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five for the campaign.
Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs (-180)
The Canucks are treading water with a 6-7 record, but considering three of their wins have come against the lowly Senators, it shouldn't be viewed as a strong start. After all, Vancouver has been outscored by 16 goals through 10 non-Ottawa games. Additionally, the Canucks are allowing the third most goals and fourth most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five this year. Their 46.8 Corsi For percentage is nothing to write home about, either.
Toronto has been off since losing 4-3 in overtime to the Oilers Saturday, and the Maple Leafs took seven of a possible eight points during their recent four-game road trip. They’re 7-2-1 and rested, so it isn’t surprising to see them a large favorite Thursday. Toronto has also reunited Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner and Zach Hyman, and the trio has clicked for an impressive 4.94 goals and 15.07 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes over the past three years. It’s also worth noting that even with goals in five straight, Matthews’ 15.4 shooting percentage is right in line with his 15.7 career mark entering this season. The Maple Leafs also have the best power-play percentage in the league, and Vancouver has been shorthanded more than any other team in the league — albeit over a league-high 13 games.
Carolina Hurricanes (-182) at Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks continue to be competitive with an active 3-1-4 record despite a number of injuries and suspect goaltending. Chicago lost in a shootout to the Hurricanes Tuesday, which was impressive because Carolina had 14 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five to the Blackhawks’ six. Carolina owns the league’s best Corsi For percentage (57.1) and has generated the second most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, but a 4.86% shooting percentage at five-on-five has kept the Hurricanes’ goal total in check. The pendulum is going to swing in Carolina’s direction sooner than later.
Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat are leading the way for Chicago, and Kevin Lankinen has kept the Blackhawks in games with a .935 save percentage and 2.09 GAA for the campaign. Still, it’s probably safe to expect Chicago to have its fare share of struggles moving forward. With Carolina a huge favorite Thursday, those struggles could begin sooner than later, too.
Arizona Coyotes at St. Louis Blues (-177)
The Blues topped Arizona 4-3 Tuesday to extend their winning streak to four games and improve to 7-2-1 for the year. Additionally, St. Louis has scored 18 goals during the noted stretch. The Brayden Schenn–Jordan Kyrou–Jaden Schwartz was dangerous again Tuesday with a goal and three high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five, and they’re up to 6.61 goals and 16.15 high-danger scoring chances per hour for the league. Just note, their 17.3 shooting percentage is due for negative regression. St. Louis has also generated the sixth fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five but has scored the most goals at five-on-five per hour in the league — statistical correction will likely strike here, too.
Arizona is a tough read. Four of the Coyotes’ six goals have been by a single goal, and their minus-three goal differential is impressive considering their 3-5-1 record. Their top line of Nick Schmaltz, Connor Garland and Clayton Keller was particularly strong Tuesday with a 68.4 Corsi For percentage and three high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five, but overall, it’s still tough to expect much from the Coyotes considering St. Louis has surrendered the fourth fewest high-danger chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league.
Calgary Flames (-120) at Winnipeg Jets
The two clubs have split the first two outings of their four-game series. Calgary won 4-3 in a shootout Monday, and Winnipeg rebounded with a 3-2 win Tuesday. The Flames have outscored Winnipeg 5-2 at five-on-five while driving possession with a 55.6 Corsi for percentage and generating 27 high-danger scoring chances to Winnipeg’s 14. However, special teams have gone in Winnipeg’s favor. The Jets scored two power-play goals Monday and a shorthanded tally Tuesday. Flames netminder Jacob Markstrom has already had some peaks and valleys, but with a .924 save percentage and 2.27 GAA average, he’s been a solid addition.
Reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck is off to a respectable 4-2-1 start for the Jets, but his current .907 save percentage lags well behind last year’s .922 mark. Winnipeg has surrendered the second most high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five this season, which certainly hasn’t helped. Still, the Jets’ top scorers continue to move the needle. Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor and Blake Wheeler have all produced at a point-per-game pace or better to start the campaign. It’s also worth noting that Josh Morrissey is projected to continue quarterbacking the No. 1 power-play unit.
