Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The 10 evening NHL games beginning at 7 p.m. EST are included in the main contests at most DFS sites Saturday, so it’s a jam-packed player pool. With that in mind, there are all kinds of ways to differentiate your lineups and no need to force players into lineups with tough matchups.
The Golden Knights, Avalanche, Blackhawks and Lightning are the largest favorites of the slate, and as long as Auston Matthews (hand/wrist) plays, the Toronto-Edmonton bout is the marquee matchup of the evening.
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Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders (-121)
This will be the fifth meeting between these two teams, and after losing the first contest, Pittsburgh has won the past three. Additionally, the Penguins enter with an active 5-2 record, which includes two wins over the Islanders. The notable news for Pittsburgh is Jason Zucker’s lower-body injury has landed him on injured reserve and is a potentially sizable blow to the Pittsburgh offense. Zachary Aston-Reese has joined Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust on the second line, and Jake Guentzel and Kasperi Kapanen continue to flank Sidney Crosby atop the depth chart.
New York enters with a rock-solid 7-2-1 active record. The Islanders have played stingy defense most of the season and have surrendered the third fewest goals per game in the league. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has allowed the fifth most and owns the fourth worst team save percentage at five-on-five. Still, while the Islanders are healthy, they score just 2.31 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and own a middle-of-the-pack 22.2% power-play percentage. It’s also worth noting that Pittsburgh’s 15.1 mark with the man advantage ranks 26th in the league. In a deep player pool, there’s not a whole lot to be excited about from this game for DFS purposes.
Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning (-182)
This is a tough matchup for the Stars. Tampa Bay has won three straight and sports an 8-1 record on home ice, whereas Dallas is 2-4-1 on the road. The Stars have also only won twice through their past 11 games. More concerning, though, is that the Lightning own a league-high, plus-25 goal differential while scoring the second most goals per game and allowing the second fewest per 60 minutes at five-on-five. It’s worth noting that Tampa Bay and Dallas do rank second and third in five-on-five team save percentage, respectively.
The Stars could be without Roope Hintz (lower body) again Saturday, and Alexander Radulov (lower body) remains on injured reserve, so the Dallas offensive attack is a little depleted. The Lightning have done some line juggling with Anthony Cirelli (upper body) out of the lineup. In Thursday’s win, Brayden Point centered Ondrej Palat and Blake Coleman, and Tyler Johnson was between Alex Killorn and Steven Stamkos. Head coach Jon Cooper could opt to shuffle the deck ahead or during the game, though, and especially since the Lightning only generated three high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five Thursday.
Carolina Hurricanes (-120) at Florida Panthers
A tape-measuring matchup in the Central Division, the Hurricanes lost three consecutive games to the Lightning after winning the first contest four their four-game set, so a rebound showing is probable. However, Florida obviously isn’t a slouch sitting in first place in the division. Carolina has the third-best Corsi For percentage in the league and generates the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five, whereas has succeeded with team defense and goaltending. The Panthers have surrendered the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes and own a fourth-ranked .929 team save percentage — both at five-on-five.
The big news for the Panthers is Jonathan Huberdeau is projected to skate atop the depth chart with Aleksander Barkov. The two have been primarily skating on separate five-on-five lines this year, and while the move definitely hurts Florida’s depth, Barkov and Huberdeau have combined for an impressive 5.2 goals per 60 minutes over the previous three seasons. It’s a huge boost to both their values, and third-wheel Carter Verhaeghe should also thrive. The Hurricanes are healthy outside of Teuvo Teravainen (concussion), and his status remains up in the air. If he’s out, Carolina’s top six projects to be Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Jesper Fast, and Vincent Trocheck, Martin Necas and Nino Niederreiter.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-121) at Edmonton Oilers
There’s potential for the four highest-scoring players in the league to take the ice in this contest, but Auston Matthews is dealing with a hand/wrist injury and didn’t practice Friday. If Matthews is unable to suit up, it’s a huge blow for the Maple Leafs, obviously. John Tavares would have added responsibility. Toronto could receive a boost if Jake Muzzin (face) is able to return to action, though. Additionally, Jack Campbell is expected to start in net after missing approximately a month with a leg injury. It’s a tough game to handicap with so many unknowns for the Maple Leafs.
Considering the Oilers are trying to chase down Toronto for the North Division lead, it’s likely the Maple Leafs have their full roster playing Saturday, and they’ll need it. Edmonton sports an 11-2 active record with five straight wins, after all. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl create horrible on-ice matchups, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Tyson Barrie have also been scorching hot. Additionally, Mike Smith has only allowed six goals on 121 shots through his past four starts. This is the marquee matchup in the league Saturday.
Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks (-167)
The Red Wings have lost each of the previous four meetings between these two clubs and only scored five times, and their 6-13-3 record ranks last in the entire NHL. Additionally, Detroit’s 70.1% penalty-kill percentage ranks 29th in the league. Offensively, the Red Wings have only scored 2.0 goals per game and own the league’s worst power-play percentage (6.1). One intriguing trio is Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha and Robby Fabbri. The new-look top line features Detroit’s three best offensive players, so there’s definite potential.
The Blackhawks are probably overachieving, too. While they’ve won eight of their past 10 games, only three of them have been in regulation, and rookie netminder Kevin Lankinen has also cooled of late. He’s surrendered nine goals for an .866 save percentage through his past two starts. Still, Patrick Kane continues to bolster his Hart Trophy case and is up to 10 goals, 21 assists and 10 power-play points through 21 games, so he’s definitely in play Saturday. Another Blackhawk to keep in mind is Adam Boqvist. He won’t break the bank and skates with the No. 1 power-play unit.
Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild (-180)
Minnesota ran over Los Angeles with a 3-1 win Friday, but the five-on-five play was more lopsided. The Wild generated 14 high-danger scoring chances and allowed five, which continues a year-long trend. Minnesota ranks second in high-danger scoring chances for while allowing the third fewest. Additionally, the Wild have now won five consecutive games with just seven goals against and a plus-16 goals differential. Los Angeles’ Friday loss snapped a six-game winning streak.
Minnesota’s top two lines led the way Friday with Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway and Kevin Fiala attempting 12 shots with a 80.0 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. Also, while Victor Rask, Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello lost the possession battle, they did generate six high-danger scoring chances. Both lines found the scoresheet, too. For the Kings, the Anze Kopitar–Dustin Brown–Alex Iafallo line stuck together at even strength, but the rest of the lines were in the blender most of the night. Looking to Saturday, likely Los Angeles starter Cal Petersen enters in solid form with a 3-0-1 record, .939 save percentage and 1.96 GAA through his past four starts. Similarly, Kaapo Kahkonen has rolled off four straight wins with a .945 save percentage and 1.51 GAA.
Colorado Avalanche (-177) at Arizona Coyotes
The Avalanche snapped a two-game losing skid with Friday’s 3-2 win over Arizona, and Colorado will start Philipp Grubauer Saturday. The German netminder boasts a high-end .923 save percentage and 2.01 GAA for the campaign, and the Avs also own the league’s best Corsi For percentage (56.2%) and penalty-kill percentage (89.1%). It’s projects as a tough spot for Arizona’s offense, especially with the Coyotes only scoring 2.07 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and owning a middling 19.7% power-play percentage.
The Avalanche have loaded up their No. 1 line with Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog, but Landeskog is in a major funk with just three assists through his past 10 games. He’s unlikely to stay quiet much longer playing top offensive minutes. Arizona made lineup swaps Friday, too, and the Christian Dvorak–Conor Garland–Phil Kessel got absolutely caved in with a 27.3 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five but was in on both of Arizona’s goals Friday. Keep tabs on Arizona’s goaltending situation, too. Darcy Kuemper (lower body) is nursing a minor injury, Antti Raanta has only started three games all season, and Adin Hill played Friday, so it could be a mismatch in goal favoring the Avs.
Montreal Canadiens (-132) at Winnipeg Jets
The head coaching change didn’t change much for Montreal Thursday, as the Canadiens lost 6-3 to Winnipeg and are now reeling along a 1-4-2 stretch. Montreal still paces the NHL in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, though, and their 54.8% Corsi For percentage and 11.93 high-danger scoring chances per hour rank second and third in the league, respectively. Jake Allen is starting for the Habs on Saturday, and he brings a rock-solid .932 save percentage and 2.14 GAA through seven starts, but he’s also lost his past two games and allowed three goals in each, so there’s no lock for a bounce-back showing from Allen or Montreal.
Winnipeg’s No. 1 line of Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois has been dominant the past two games with six goals and 10 assists through the past two games, and Kyle Connor also scored twice against Montreal on Thursday. As long as the Scheifele-Wheeler-Dubois trio is clicking they’re in play because of how difficult it will be for opposing teams to account for their two-way abilities and size. It’s hard to hone in on a particular Montreal line to target, but it’s worth noting that Josh Anderson (lower body) is questionable, and Tyler Toffoli practiced in his place Friday.
Vegas Golden Knights (-200) at Anaheim Ducks
The Golden Knights have allowed the fewest goals per game in the league and own the third-best penalty-kill percentage (87.2), so this checks out as a tough matchup for the offensively challenged Ducks. Anaheim has scored just 1.95 goals per game and generated an underwhelming 9.15 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes this season, after all. Additionally, Marc-Andre Fleury will probably start for Vegas, and he boasts an elite 8-3 record, .942 save percentage and 1.55 GAA with three shutouts for the campaign. It’s probably safe to fade the Ducks entirely.
Vegas has done some line juggling, so take a peek at their new top-nine look before starting Golden Knights in DFS on Saturday. The biggest beneficiaries are likely Alex Tuch, Cody Glass and Nicolas Roy, and those three don’t break the bank, either. It’s also a potentially soft matchup, especially at five-on-five, as Anheim has surrendered a healthy 11.18 high-danger scoring chances per hour while owning the sixth lowest team save percentage (.911). Just note the Ducks’ 85.2 penalty-kill percentage ranks seventh in the league.
St. Louis Blue (-155) at San Jose Sharks
This should be an opportunity for St. Louis to find its way with San Jose allowing the second-most goals per game in the league and sporting a 23rd-ranked 76.2% penalty-kill percentage. The Sharks also rank third last in team save percentage and allow a healthy 10.8 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and St. Louis has positive offensive regression ahead. The Blues have lost four of five and only scored seven times during the skid, after all.
Leading the way for San Jose this season has been Logan Couture. He’s scored seven times with an unsustainably high 26.9 shooting percentage through the past nine games and owns a 20.8 mark for the campaign. Turning to the Blues, power-play quarterback Torey Krug is also positioned for statistical correction, albeit in the opposite direction. He’s recorded just three assists through the past eight games, so after pacing all regular defensemen in points per 60 minutes over the past three years, he could tee off on this soft matchup. It’s also worth noting that Jordan Kyrou leads St. Louis in points per 60 minutes this season with 3.36 and is affordable across the DFS landscape.
