Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a busy 10-game night in the NHL Thursday, so there are plenty of avenues to differentiating DFS lineups. It’s worth noting that there aren’t any huge favorites, while there are a number of interesting home underdogs.
Here’s a peek around the league to aid your lineup assembly in DFS contests and seasonal leagues.
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Boston Bruins (-132) at New York Islanders
While alone in first place in the East Division, the Bruins have lost both of their matchups against fifth-place New York this season, and the Islanders have held Boston to just three goals through the two meetings. Boston is well rested for this matchup having last played Sunday, but New York has also been off since Monday. After not practicing Wednesday, the Bruins might be without No. 2 center David Krejci (lower body), which will be important to monitor. Otherwise, the two teams are relatively healthy.
This might not be the best DFS game to target, though. Boston has surrendered the third-fewest goals per game in the league, and New York ranks fourth. Additionally, the Islanders have allowed the third-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and the Bruins have allowed the eighth fewest. Both teams also boast respectable penalty-kill units — Boston’s 87.7 penalty-kill percentage is second highest in the league and New York ranks 12th with an 80.0 mark. However, it’s definitely worth noting that Boston appears more malleable and capable of winning both high-scoring and low-scoring games, whereas most of the Islanders’ success has come from limiting opponents to two goals or fewer.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals (-114)
There are a few notable mismatches in this contest. The Penguins own a 25th-ranked 75.0% penalty-kill percentage, whereas Washington owns a fifth-ranked 31.9 power-play percentage. Additionally, the Penguins have the third-worst team save percentage in the league at five-on-five, and Washington has the third best team shooting percentage at five-on-five. The Penguins won the last meeting 3-2 on Tuesday, and Washington failed to score a goal with the man advantage, so banking on a Capitals goal with the man advantage is a potential lean.
Pittsburgh is struggling to generate offense at five-on-five. The Sidney Crosby–Jake Guentzel–Kasperi Kapanen line has scored just 2.64 goals per 60 minutes this season, and the Evgeni Malkin–Bryan Rust–Jason Zucker trio has produced a 1.92 mark. The Capitals are projected to roll out a balanced, three-line attack, which lessens their offensive punch but also makes a potential line stack more affordable. Additionally, mini-stacks or standalone targets are also in play.
Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning (-141)
This is the second game in as many nights for these two teams, and Carolina is looking to tie the four-game series after Tampa Bay has won the past two meetings. It’s a fairly even matchup. Both teams rank similarly in both special teams and in five-on-five possession. Additionally, Carolina has Teuvo Teravainen out with a concussion and Anthony Cirelli still out with an upper-body injury for Tampa Bay. During the current three-game series, Carolina has registered more five-on-five shot attempts, but Tampa Bay has generated more high-danger scoring chances. Each team has a single power-play goal through the three most recent meetings, too. It all adds up to Thursday being another close contest.
It’s likely going to be a James Reimer vs. Curtis McElhinney matchup in goal, and it's worth highlighting that it will be just the third start for McElhinney this year, in which he’s allowed seven goals on 45 shots. While Reimer hasn’t been much better with a .896 save percentage and 3.08 GAA through 10 games, there’s no lock this will be a high-scoring game. After all, there have only been 14 goals through their four prior meetings.
Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers (-124)
Dallas snapped a six-game losing skid Wednesday against Florida, so this will be the second game in two nights for these two clubs and the third this week. They’ve split the first two meetings with Florida dominating five-on-five possession with a 63.1 Corsi For percentage — 106 shot attempts compared to just 62 allowed. As a result, Dallas is probably lucky to have picked up Wednesday’s win, especially since the Stars didn’t strike with the man advantage and generated only six high-danger scoring chances.
The Stars could be without Roope Hintz (lower body) again Thursday, after he missed Wednesday’s contest, and Alexander Radulov (lower body) still isn’t skating. Florida continues to ice a healthy lineup and is probably pegged right as a small home favorite. The risk is in nets, as Sergei Bobrovsky has struggled to the tune of an .889 save percentage and 3.18 GAA this season and should start for the Panthers after Chris Driedger played Wednesday. Dallas will likely roll out Jake Oettinger, and he’s undefeated in regulation with a 2-0-3 record, .910 save percentage and 2.31 GAA through six appearances. There probably aren’t a lot of stack options in this contest, but Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau are worth considering, whereas there are four solid defensemen in Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad, John Klingberg and Miro Heiskanen who are proven producers.
Chicago Blackhawks at Columbus Blue Jackets (-122)
Chicago enters with a high-end 8-2-1 record after topping Columbus 6-5 in a shootout Tuesday, while the Blue Jackets dropped to an active 4-5-2 record during the same stretch. It was a somewhat surprising offensive outburst for both teams, as they both rank middle-of-the-pack in goals per game this season. However, both teams scored twice with the man advantage, so it will be interesting to see how the special teams play out Thursday. It’s definitely worth noting the Blackhawks own a second-ranked 33.3 power-play percentage, and Columbus’ 71.4% penalty-kill percentage ranks 27th in the league, so there’s a potential mismatch there.
With four points Tuesday, Patrick Kane is up to nine goals and 21 assists through 20 games this season, and while linemate Alex DeBrincat also has an impressive 19 points — nine tallies — through 16 games, it’s been Kane driving the offense and garnering Hart Trophy hype. Columbus is projected to shake its lines up Thursday with the most notable swap Nick Foligno centering Patrik Laine and Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Jack Roslovic centering Boone Jenner and Cam Atkinson.
Calgary Flames (-150) at Ottawa Senators
This is a bad schedule spot for the Flames after losing to Toronto 2-1 Wednesday, and Ottawa is playing well with four wins in its past six contests. Plus, the Flames have lost five of their past seven games, and No. 1 goalie Jacob Markstrom’s (upper body) status is up in the air. Backup David Rittich has been excellent in relief the past two games, but this is also Calgary’s third game in four night, so that’s a lot of work in a short period of time. If Markstrom can’t go, there’s potential for Artyom Zagidulin to make his NHL debut. The 25-year-old Russian had an underwhelming .898 save percentage through 30 AHL appearances last season. It all adds up to a potential trap game for the Flames.
Ottawa has been led by Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson during the noted six-game stretch while Connor Brown, Josh Norris and Tim Stutzle have also been productive. Thomas Chabot also returned to action Tuesday and logged 29:26 of ice time, including 4:16 with the man advantage. It’s worth noting veteran Derek Stephen (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Thursday. For the Flames, this is a good matchup for their struggling offense because Ottawa has surrendered the most goals per game (4.0) in the league. So expect both of their top-six lines — Sean Monahan–Johnny Gaudreau–Sam Bennett and Elias Lindholm–Matthew Tkachuk–Andrew Mangiapane — to be popular. Still, even in the plus-matchup, there’s reason to fade. Of course, the funnest mini-stack of the slate is the Tkachuk-Tkachuk combo.
New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres (-109)
New Jersey and Buffalo are tied for last place in the East Division, and interestingly, the Sabres have scored the fewest five-on-five goals per 60 minutes in the league while the Devils have allowed the fewest. Buffalo has won the past two meetings between the two, and the Devils have lost three consecutive games overall. There’s little to be overly excited about in this contest, unless you’re looking for contrarian angles. Even with Devils No. 1 starter Mackenzie Blackwood checking out as potential goalie option, Buffalo’s league-low 5.4% team shooting percentage at five-on-five is eyeing positive regression.
Additionally, New Jersey probably has overachieved to date, as evidenced by the recent three-game slide. Buffalo, alternatively, has likely underachieved — especially considering the Sabres have allowed the fifth fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Hammered home over and over in this space has been Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall combining for just three goals and a 3.2 shooting percentage through 16 games. There’s no way they can continue to have such poor puck luck, and while they’re not projected to play on the same even-strength line, it’s a potential power-play stack against the Devils’ league-low 59.1% penalty-kill percentage.
Nashville Predators (-155) at Detroit Red Wings
The Predators put on a defensive clinic Tuesday in their 2-0 shutout over Detroit, as the Red Wings generated just five high-danger scoring chances. Detroit has scored the fewest goals per game and owns a league-low 6.4 power-play percentage, so being held in check isn’t anything new. With the Preds a sound defensive team allowing just 8.54 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five, limiting the Red Wings is definitely a potential outcome again Thursday. As a result, Nashville starter Pekka Rinne — and his .938 save percentage and 1.84 GAA through his past seven games — will likely be a popular target Thursday.
Offensively for Nashville, Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi were in on both of the club’s third-period, power-play goals Tuesday and remain solid options Thursday. The Red Wings have surrendered the ninth most goals per game in the league and own a 70.5 penalty-kill percentage — fourth worst in the league. While the matchup definitely checks out in Nashville’s favor, they’re not a huge favorite, and there’s potential for a bounce-back showing from Detroit. Add the likelihood of Nashville’s top players and Rinne being popular targets and it’s probably not a must-roster situation.
Montreal Canadiens (-127) at Winnipeg Jets
After a blistering hot start to the campaign, Montreal has lost six of the past eight games and fired head coach Claude Julien on Wednesday. Winnipeg, on the other hand, has only lost consecutive games once all season and owns a rock-solid 11-6-1 record. There are obvious reasons to expect a Montreal bounceback showing, especially with an impressive 6-0-4 road record. Still, there are also obvious concerns. One notable mismatch is at five-on-five with Winnipeg allowing the most high-danger scoring chances per hour, and Montreal generating the second most while also scoring the most goals per hour. It probably makes Winnipeg starter Connor Hellebuyck a risky start.
The big news with Winnipeg was the shift of Pierre-Luc Dubois to the wing alongside Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler for Sunday’s game, and the trio picked up three goals and six assists during the comeback win over Vancouver. Montreal skaters remain tough to target because of the balanced lines. The lone notable change is Tyler Toffoli and Tomas Tartar swapping lines, and it might not prove to be overly beneficial for either. Additionally, one on-paper mismatch in Winnipeg’s favor that could show up on the ice is the Jets have the superior players up the middle. Furthermore, it could be argued that much of Montreal’s recent woes are a result of being overwhelmed at center by the North Division’s high-end collection of centermen.
Edmonton Oilers (-132) at Vancouver Canucks
Speaking of high-end centermen, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have continued their assault on opponents and sit first and second in league scoring, respectively. With Vancouver allowing the third most goals per game and Edmonton scoring the most, expect McDavid and Draisaitl to be popular targets — as they should most nights. To further highlight the mismatch, the Canucks are 2-8-2 with 3.75 goals against per game in February, and Edmonton is rolling along a 12-2 stretch with 4.17 goals per outing.
Tyson Barrie, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Darnell Nurse have also been impressive during the noted 12-game stretch, whereas Dominik Kahun, Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi also offer upside. It’s also worth noting that Edmonton netminder Mike Smith is 5-0 with a .935 save percentage and 2.05 GAA through six appearances this season. All in all, everything's coming together for the Oilers, and there’s good reason for them to be a road favorite Thursday. Turning to Vancouver, Quinn Hughes and the No. 1 line of Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller have been consistent scorers all year and are probably the top Canucks to target Thursday.
