Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
While there are seven games in the NHL Wednesday, the five evening contests beginning at 7 p.m. EST are included in the main contests at most DFS sites. With those five in mind, it’s interesting to note that there are five home favorites with Colorado the largest followed by Arizona, St. Louis and Toronto. Additionally, the Flames- Maple Leafs game has the highest over/under total.
Here’s a quick-hit primer to help your lineup assembly.
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Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning (-157)
Tampa Bay scored two third-period goals to top Carolina 4-2 Monday and pull the season series to 2-1 after losing its first two games to the Hurricanes. It was an incredibly even contest, though. Each team scored a power-play goal, and the five-on-five shot attempts were 52-51 and five-on-five high-danger scoring chances were 11-9 — both in Carolina’s favor. Perhaps the only notable difference was in goal. Tampa Bay starter Andrei Vasilevskiy turned away 34 of 36 shots to improve to a .931 save percentage for the campaign, whereas Carolina’s James Reimer allowed three goals on 31 shots and now owns an .896 mark for the year.
One interesting note from Monday’s game was the NHL debut of Alex Barre-Boulet. The 23-year-old rookie played with Yanni Gourde and Alex Killorn, and the trio attempted 14 shots, including three of the high-danger variety through just 7:24 of five-on-five time. Barre-Boulet also logged 3:19 of power-play time, so after producing high-end numbers in the AHL over the past two years, he could be a sneaky DFS target moving forward. Carolina’s best player Monday was Vincent Trocheck with eight shot attempts and five individual high-danger scoring chances.
Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers (-138)
Another rematch from Monday night, the Panthers quieted the Stars with a 3-1 win while dominating five-on-five possession with a 65.5 Corsi For percentage. Dallas had its lines in the blender all night, whereas Florida stuck with the same four trios all game at five-on-five. While it was a tough schedule spot for Dallas after being off for a handful of games, the Stars have now lost six straight games and eight of their past nine. Florida, meanwhile, is up to 12-3-2 for the campaign and alone in first place atop the Central Division.
Panthers’ netminder Chris Driedger appears to have stolen the crease from $10 million man Sergei Bobrovsky, as Driedger owns a 7-1-1 record, .929 save percentage and 2.20 GAA compared to Bobrovsky’s 5-2-1, .889 and 3.18 marks. Bobrovsky’s enormous contract isn’t going to allow Driedger to take over the crease entirely, but it’s also difficult to start the inferior option over and over. It’s also worth noting, while Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov and Keith Yandle all only registered a single point Monday, Florida’s best players continue to lead the way.
New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers (-132)
The big news out of New York is Artemi Panarin’s personal leave from the team, and it will be telling to see how the Rangers fare without their best player. It will create a huge scoring void, and with so many Rangers already underachieving, it’s impossible to consider it nothing short of a devastating blow until proven otherwise. Don’t forget, Anthony DeAngelo is also no longer skating with the NHL club, and he finished with 53 points from the blueline last year. It’s worth noting that New York owns the fifth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league which has helped them surrender the seventh-fewest goals per game, so team defense has been a strength.
While the Flyers still have a number of key regulars out of the lineup for various reasons, their new-look No. 1 line has been rolling of late. Sean Couturier, James van Riemsdyk and Joel Farabee have combined for seven goals and nine assists through the past three games. Claude Giroux is also returning to the fold after missing time due to COVID-19 protocols. Additionally, Philadelphia’s defense corps is at full strength, and Carter Hart boasts an elite .947 save percentage and 1.57 GAA at home over the past two years.
Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs (-148)
The injuries have piled up for the Maple Leafs, and they’re only short home favorites Wednesday as a result. Calgary shut out Toronto 3-0 Monday but was shorthanded seven times and dominated at five-on-five with a 39.7 Corsi For percentage. Other than No. 1 goalie Jacob Markstrom (upper body), Calgary will ice a healthy lineup, and the Flames will likely give Toronto another tough game. It would be a little surprising if the five-on-five shot attempts weren’t closer, at least. Additionally, with Toronto starter Frederik Andersen also out, the Maple Leafs have question marks in goal.
The risk in backing the Flames is Toronto scoring its way to victory, and the Maple Leafs are projected to load up their No. 1 line with John Tavares joining Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner atop the depth chart. The trio has played sparingly together at five-on-five (62:03) over the past three years, but when given an opportunity they’ve been incredibly dangerous with 26.11 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. Expecting them to generate five high-danger chances Wednesday isn’t out of the question, and then they’ll also likely add a few more on the power play. While pricey, a Matthews-Tavares-Marner stack is definitely in play.
Anaheim Ducks at Arizona Coyotes (-157)
The Coyotes stormed back with four answered goals to beat Anaheim 4-3 Monday, and it’s worth noting it was the first time in five outings the Ducks scored more than two goals in a game. Additionally, it was Anaheim’s fourth loss in a row and dropped the Ducks to last place in the West division with a 6-10-3 record. Anaheim starter John Gibson has also surrendered 15 goals through his past four starts with a discouraging .864 save percentage. It’s a bad scene, and it isn’t surprising that Arizona’s a sizable favorite Wednesday.
Still, the Coyotes don’t have a lot of offensive options to turn to beyond the No. 1 line of Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller and Conor Garland, especially after throwing the lines in the blender Monday sparked the comeback. Additionally, it was Christian Dvorak’s two-goal showing that was most critical, and the 25-year-old center has been sneaky production with 15 points — nine goals — through 18 games. Dvorak has also been extremely hit or miss with all 15 points coming in nine games. Arizona starter Darcy Kuemper is probably the best target, but he’ll likely be popular. Regardless, he’s sporting a rock-solid .915 save percentage and 2.33 GAA, and the Ducks have scored the second fewest goals per game in the league.
Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche (-186)
Minnesota has rattled off three straight wins with a plus-10 goal differential to climb to a 9-6 record for the campaign. This will be an interesting test for the Wild, though. Minnesota has the second best high-danger scoring chances for percentage in the league at five-on-five, whereas Colorado has the best Corsi For percentage, so the even-strength play could play out fairly evenly. It’s also worth noting that Colorado has the league’s best penalty-kill percentage, and Minnesota ranks third.
This is also a rare game with both teams icing nearly completely healthy lineups, which includes Colorado loading up its No. 1 line with Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog. They’ve been a force for a long time and scored an impressive 5.24 goals per hour over the past three years and will likely be a popular stack Wednesday. The Wild don’t have the name-brand talent to match up against the Avs, but Minnesota’s top two lines have been posting respectable numbers of late but are more contrarian leans or standalone plays.
Los Angeles Kings at St. Louis Blues (-148)
The Kings have suddenly won five consecutive games, including topping St. Louis 3-0 Monday. It was the Blues’ third loss in four games, and they’ve surrendered a healthy eight goals through their past two games. Back to Los Angeles, the Kings have an impressive plus-14 goal differential during their winning streak. Still, St. Louis is a big home favorite Wednesday, but it wouldn’t be shocking if Los Angeles gave the Blues another tough game. St. Louis is still missing a number of key players, and netminder Jordan Binnington is 2-4-1 with a mediocre .910 save percentage through his past seven starts.
Los Angeles No. 1 center Anze Kopitar had a seven-game point streak snapped against St. Louis on Monday, but he continues to drive the bus for the Kings. Long-time running mates Dustin Brown and Drew Doughty have also been excellent of late. Brown has six goals and two assists through the past six games, and Doughty’s seven points during the five-game winning streak. Still, even with the recent success, Los Angeles’ team save percentage ranks 17th in the league at five-on-five, and the Kings are allowing the sixth most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. So, there are still warts in Tinseltown, which also probably explains why St. Louis is a notable favorite.
