Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are eight games in the NHL on Monday with the Blues, Maple Leafs, Coyotes and Islanders receiving the largest home chalk, whereas Colorado and Florida are also small home favorites. The Sharks and Hurricanes are the lone home underdogs. The Toronto-Calgary and Carolina-Tampa Bay games have the highest over/under totals, and the Arizona-Anaheim matchup is the lowest. Here’s a quick-hit primer to help you set your seasonal and DFS lineups.
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Tampa Bay Lightning (-122) at Carolina Hurricanes
This is Game 2 of a four-contest series between the two clubs, and Carolina won the first 4-0 on Saturday. Additionally, the Lightning enter with losses in three of their past four outings, whereas Carolina has won five of its past six and scored 28 total goals. The Hurricanes also sit atop the Central Division with a 12-3-1 record while also ranking third in the NHL in Corsi For percentage and scoring a respectable 2.87 goals per hour at five-on-five.
The Lightning have a huge absence up the middle with Anthony Cirelli (upper body) out indefinitely, and it significantly hurts their ability to match up against Carolina’s balanced lineup. Even with Teuvo Teravainen (upper body) expected to remain out Monday, the Hurricanes are able to ice three lines capable of scoring and playing sound defense. Furthermore, Carolina should be able to keep Tampa Bay’s No. 1 line mostly in check because they should be able to pick and choose the right in-game matchups. This could be a time to target Andrei Vasilevskiy, though. He should see plenty of rubber with Carolina averaging 32.0 shots per game this season.
Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs (-159)
The Flames have lost four of their past five contests and allowed 20 goals during the skid, whereas the Maple Leafs are a league-best 14-3-2 and beat Calgary in both meetings this season. Toronto is also pacing the league in both goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and power-play percentage, so Calgary’s defense will probably be tested again Monday. It’s also been a tough stretch for starter Jacob Markstrom. He owns a .831 save percentage through the past three games, including being pulled in consecutive starts. If Sean Monahan can’t return from a lower-body injury Monday, it will also make matters worse for Calgary.
The Maple Leafs are rolling and Auston Matthews continues to pad the scoresheet nightly. No. 34 is up to seven tallies and five helpers through the past four games, and linemates Mitchell Marner and Joe Thornton have also added another four goals and 11 assists. Toronto hasn’t received considerable or consistent contributions from the rest of the forward corps, but defenseman Morgan Rielly has found the scoresheet in 1- of the past 13 games for 15 points. In net, Frederik Andersen has been good enough to win eight of his past 11 starts, but his .909 save percentage during the stretch limits his viability in DFS, and especially relative to his salary.
Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers (-117)
The Stars haven’t played since Feb. 13, and they had lost five straight games before the layoff. Florida, meanwhile, continues to play well and sports an impressive 11-3-2 record to rank second in the Central Division. Additionally, the Panthers should be motivated after losing 2-1 to Detroit last time out. This should also set up as a tough matchup for the Dallas offense. The Stars have scored just 2.19 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five while the Panthers have surrendered a league-low 7.56 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes.
Offensively for Florida, Jonathan Huberdeau is having his way with opponents and is one outing removed from a three-game, multi-point streak and has recorded an elite 4.97 points per 60 minutes for the campaign. Center Aleksander Barkov is just a step behind with 18 points – six goals – through 16 games this year. Turning to either as standalone plays, or focal points of a mini-Florida stack is definitely in play. Power-play quarterback Keith Yandle also continues to move the scoring needle. It’s also worth noting that goaltending has been a shortcoming for the Stars with a mediocre .903 team save percentage for the campaign.
Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders (-160)
The Sabres finally found the wins column Saturday after losing three straight after a lengthy layoff due to COVID-19 protocols. Additionally, two of those noted three losses were against the Islanders, as New York beat Buffalo in consecutive games by 3-1 and 3-0 scores, respectively. New York lost its next two games to Pittsburgh, as the Islanders' inconsistent season continues to churn along. They remain a strong defensive team with top-10 marks in goals against and high-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, though. It’s also worth noting the Sabres have scored the fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season.
With New York’s noted strong team defense in mind, Buffalo’s struggling offensive attack wouldn’t appear to be positioned to break out Monday. Still, at some point Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall have to see some positive statistical regression. The two stars have combined for just three goals and a 3.7 shooting percentage through 14 games, after all. Eichel entered the year with a 10.8 career shooting percentage, and Hall owned a 10.4 mark. Defenseman Rasmus Dahlin is also probably a candidate to deliver an uptick in production after recording just five points — one goal — through 14 games to start the campaign.
Los Angeles Kings at St. Louis Blues (-165)
In the midst of an underwhelming 3-4-1 stretch with a healthy 2.81 goals against per 60 minutes, the Blues aren’t in top form. Additionally, a number of key Blues are either out or questionable for Monday’s game, including Colton Parayko, Jaden Schwartz, Robert Thomas, Ivan Barbashev and Tyler Bozak. Entering in completely opposite form, the Kings enter sporting a season-long four-game winning streak with a plus-11 goal differential.
Center Anze Kopitar continues to lead the way for Los Angeles with three tallies and six helpers during his seven-game point streak, and veteran Drew Doughty is also in the midst of a throwback stretch with eight points during his own five-game point streak. Still, even with all the injuries, the Blues are a huge home favorite, and netminder Jordan Binnington boasts an elite .930 save percentage and 1.80 GAA through 58 home games over the past three years.
Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche (-135)
This will be the fourth straight meeting between the two clubs with Vegas winning the first 1-0, and then Colorado winning the next two games with a 3-2 final in each. It’s also worth noting that both teams are at almost full health and battling it out for seeding atop the West Division. It’s a tough game to handicap because of how closely the two teams have played this season, and considering both clubs have very few flaws and project to remain as Stanley Cup contenders. Additionally, considering there have only been 11 total goals through the first three meetings between them.
Upfront for Colorado, Gabriel Landeskog (COVID-19 protocol) didn’t return to Colorado’s No. 1 line with linemates Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen full-time Saturday, and Andre Burakovsky has been spending time with MacKinnon and Rantanen over the past few games. Colorado did line juggle some Saturday, although it’s tough to read too much into the game considering there was an eight-hour delay mid-game due to poor ice conditions. It’s tough to spend up for the Golden Knights top players Monday considering Colorado has helpped Vegas to five goals through three games, and the Avalanche own the league’s best Corsi For percentage and five-on-five and a league-high 89.6 penalty-kill percentage.
Anaheim Ducks at Arizona Coyotes (-159)
The Ducks enter with an active 3-6-1 record and have scored the fewest goals per 60 minutes in the league while their 7.5 power-play percentage ranks second-last in the league. As a result, this should prove to be a favorable matchup for Arizona, and especially with Arizona in need of a rebound showing. The Coyotes have lost four of their past five games, after all. There’s definitely potential for this to be a goalie battle, too. Arizona starter Darcy Kuemper has allowed two goals or fewer in eight of his past 11 games and sports an impressive .929 save percentage and 1.91 GAA during the stretch.
While netminder John Gibson is always in play to steal a game for Anaheim, he hasn’t been sharp of late with 11 goals allowed through his past three starts. However, there’s definitely bounce-back potential. The Arizona offense isn’t overly intimidating, after all. The Coyotes rank 24th in the league with just 2.49 goals per hour for the campaign. A final note about this game is Anaheim’s No. 1 ranked prospect Trevor Zegras is expected to make his NHL debut Monday.
Minnesota Wild (-139) at San Jose Sharks
The Wild swept a two-game series against Anaheim by a combined 8-2 score and should be positioned for another strong showing against San Jose. The Sharks have surrendered the third-most goals per 60 minutes in the league this season and haven’t won consecutive games all season. Additionally, their five-on-five team save percentage is the fourth-worst in the league. San Jose did top St. Louis 5-4 on Saturday, though. It’s worth noting how well Minnesota has generated high-danger scoring chances while limiting opponents at five-on-five, as the Wild rank second and third per 60 minutes in the two categories, respectively.
Leading the way for Minnesota of late has been Kevin Fiala. He’s recorded three goals, an assist, 15 shot attempts and seven individual high-danger scoring chances through the past two games. Kirill Kaprizov is also a potential target from the Wild. For San Jose, Logan Couture is having an excellent season, but his 19.6 shooting percentage is unsustainably high, so he’s definitely at risk of a statistical correction over the coming games. Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier are expected to skate together at five-on-five and check out as a potential mini-stack that could fly under the radar.
