Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are eight games for our DFS pleasure in the NHL Tuesday, with the Canucks-Canadiens and Flames-Jets contests both being the team’s second meeting in consecutive nights. Similarly, the Wild topped the Avalanche, and the Oilers topped the Senators on Sunday. The Oilers are the largest favorites on the docket with Montreal, Carolina, Colorado and St. Louis also all receiving notable chalk. The Edmonton-Ottawa game has the highest over/under total.
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Dallas Stars (-114) at Columbus Blue Jackets
Patrik Laine is expected to make his Columbus debut. He projects as a high-risk, high-reward option given the difficult matchup, and it’s his first game since Jan. 14.
With consecutive losses to the Hurricanes, look for Dallas to rebound with a strong showing Tuesday. The Stars got key cogs Jamie Benn and Roope Hintz back Sunday and are almost at full health. Additionally, Dallas has surrendered only 13 goals through six games, including a league-low 1.38 per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Veteran goalie Anton Khudobin boasts an impressive 3-1-1 record, .922 save percentage and 2.17 GAA through his five starts. It could be a good spot for the Russian, too. Columbus is generating just 6.85 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five per hour.
Columbus has been sound defensively, too. The Blue Jackets have surrendered 2.7 goals per game, are tied for first in the Central Division and are 2-0-2 on home ice for the year. Offensively, there’s just not a lot to bank on. Oliver Bjorkstrand leads the way with three tallies and five helpers through 10 games, and Boone Jenner and Alexandre Texier are the only other players with more than four points on the campaign. Considering Dallas’ strong start, fading the Blue Jackets is definitely in play.
Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens (-175)
The Canadiens beat up on the Canucks for a 6-2 win Monday, and the two teams go right back at it Tuesday. Montreal also generated 17 high-danger scoring chances to Vancouver’s nine. Jake Allen and Thatcher Demko will likely start Game 2 of the back-to-back set for their respective teams, and both netminders are capable of leading their teams to victory. Demko has won three consecutive starts with a .971 save percentage and just one goal allowed in each outing, whereas Allen has won two of his three outings with a .933 save percentage and 1.69 GAA.
It’s tough to peg the Canadiens skaters. Jeff Petry, Tyler Toffoli, Jonathan Drouin and Nicholas Suzuki are all producing at a point-per-game pace, and five more Habs have at least six points through nine games. The balanced attack makes it difficult to hit on the right line night in, night out, but with Vancouver allowing the second-most goals in the league to date, having some exposure to Montreal is definitely in play. Suzuki and Drouin have been the most consistent forwards, though. Vancouver put their lines in the blender during Monday’s game, so it will be interesting to see how things shake out Tuesday. There’s definitely some bounceback potential for the Canucks, but Montreal has also outscored Vancouver 18-7 over their past three meetings.
Carolina Hurricanes (-175) and Chicago Blackhawks
One of the biggest mismatches on the docket, Carolina is off to an impressive 5-1 start while allowing just 10 goals, so look for the Hurricanes to shut down the Blackhawks Tuesday. Carolina will be calling on veteran netminder James Reimer more often with Petr Mrazek (upper body) out indefinitely. Reimer is capable and sports a 3-0 record, .918 save percentage and 1.99 GAA to start the season. Interestingly, the Hurricanes own the league’s best Corsi For percentage (56.8) but have scored just six five-on-five goals this season, so look for positive regression to their unsustainably low 4.0% team shooting percentage.
While the Blackhawks have only won three games all season, they’ve also taken three to extra time and lost, and their 3-4-3 record reaffirms their competitive start. Additionally, Chicago sports an active 3-1-2 stretch with a plus-seven goal differential. Much of the recent success can probably be attributed to Kevin Lankinen’s play. The rookie has stopped 153 of 160 shots during his past five starts. The Hurricanes aren’t at full health Tuesday, so there is contrarian appeal to Lankinen, especially considering Carolina’s current scoring struggles. It’s risky, though.
Arizona Coyotes at St. Louis Blues (-165)
Another potential mismatch, St. Louis has found its form and won three straight to improve to 6-2-1 for the season, including outsourcing Anaheim 10-2 to sweep their most recent two-game miniseries. The Coyotes haven’t played since last Thursday and own an underwhelming 3-4-1 record and will be looking to upset the Blues on Tuesday to string together their first back-to-back wins of the campaign. St. Louis has surrendered just 6.85 high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five this season — fourth-fewest in the league. So, with Arizona only scoring 20 goals through eight games, the Coyotes are likely to struggle finding the back of the net again Tuesday.
The big development for St. Louis is the dominance of the Brayden Schenn–Jaden Schwartz–Jordan Kyrou line. The trio is driving possession with a 59.1 Corsi For percentage while scoring 6.89 goals and generating 16.37 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Over the past four games, they’ve combined for eight goals and nine assists, too. For DFS purposes, Schenn, Schwartz and Kyrou also provide coverage to both of St. Louis’ power-play units. It’s also worth noting Torey Krug is finding his form with an assist in three straight games.
Calgary Flames (-120) at Winnipeg Jets
The Jets scored two power-play goals in the first period Monday to take a 2-0 lead, but they ended up losing 4-3 in a shootout to Calgary. Winnipeg has allowed at least three goals in each of its past five games and three of their five wins have come against Ottawa. The Jets are 2-3-1 otherwise and have now lost two straight. The offense is absolutely fine, though. Winnipeg’s best players are filling the net with Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers all at double-digit points through nine games.
The Flames have been more responsible defensively with a third best 1.5 goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and Calgary also boasts a rock-solid 53.1 Corsi For percentage and second-ranked .948 team save percentage. Jacob Markstrom has rounded into form with a 4-2-1 record, .924 save percentage, 2.27 GAA and two shutouts. Johnny Gaudreau is also up to six tallies and four helpers for the campaign and tied with Elias Lindholm for the team lead in points. The Flames will need to tidy up their shorthanded play, though. Calgary owns a 22nd-ranked 76.7% penalty-kill percentage, after all.
Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche (-167)
The Avalanche are expected to be without Nathan MacKinnon (lower body) for at least a week after the superstar sustained an injury Sunday against the Wild. It’s a huge blow to Colorado, and while the club has the core to remain a high-end team, losing your best player always takes a toll. Look for Colorado to continue treading water as one of the best teams in the West Division, but the injury specifically hurts the Avalanche’s power-play units and lowers the fantasy ceilings of Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog. This is probably another good spot for Philipp Grubauer, though. He’s won six of eight starts with a .930 save percentage, 1.75 GAA and two shutouts.
Shifting to the Wild, they’re dealing with some of their own injury issues with Mathew Dumba (lower body), Kevin Fiala (suspension) and Marcus Foligno (COVID-19 protocol) out of the lineup, and Marcus Johansson (undisclosed) questionable after missing Sunday’s game. Secondary contributors were already a weakness, so further depleting the talent pool will likely hurt Minnesota. Still, the committee approach is working. Minnesota is 6-4 for the campaign while generating the third most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five and allowing the second fewest. There’s upset potential here again with MacKinnon out of the lineup — the Wild beat Colorado 4-3 in overtime Sunday.
Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers (-220)
Tee up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl confidently Tuesday. The duo combined for a goal and 10 assists during Sunday’s 8-5 win over Ottawa, and with the Senators allowing the most goals per game in the NHL, the matchup projects to remain soft. To highlight how important Edmonton’s two stars are to the club, the Oilers have been outscored 24-4 when McDavid and Draisaitl are both on the bench. When either is on the ice, Edmonton has doubled up opponents 34-17. While there’s likely to be plenty more offense in Tuesday’s game, it could also be a nice spot to consider Mikko Koskinen. He’s allowed 18 goals over his past five games, but Ottawa is still a weak opponent, and Edmonton should be focused on tightening up defensively.
The Senators might ice a new-look lineup with different line combinations Tuesday, so checking ahead will be important. Additionally, the combo could go into the blender if the Sens struggle again. Most important, though, No. 1 defenseman Thomas Chabot (lower body) might not dress again Tuesday after missing Sunday’s game. It’s a notable absence for the Sens. Mike Reilly climbed into the power-play quarterback role with the top unit Sunday and collected an assist and three shots. Reilly has scored at the lower levels and for stretches in the NHL, so he’s a potential low-priced flier in DFS. The Sens continue to generate a lot of offensive chances (second-ranked 13.17 per 60 minutes), too, so there’s still potential if Edmonton doesn’t clean up defensively.
Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings (-130)
After an 0-3 start, Los Angeles has won three of five and has been off since losing to Minnesota 5-3 Thursday. As a result, the Kings could be in a solid spot to win a low-scoring game Tuesday. Anaheim has scored just 16 goals through 10 games after all. Meanwhile, the Kings have scored 25 times through eight games. Los Angeles doesn’t boast a deep and talented lineup, though. The Kings rank last in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season — Anaheim ranks third last.
The difference will likely be how well John Gibson plays. He’s surrendered 10 goals on 63 shots the past three games (all losses), but had posted a sterling 3-1-2 record, .948 save percentage and 1.67 GAA through his first six appearances of the season. If Gibson is at his best, it’ll probably be tough for the Kings. Los Angeles netminder Jonathan Quick is similarly in a solid spot to reward, but his track record has underwhelmed for a long time. The veteran owns an .895 save percentage and 3.12 GAA through 93 games over the past three seasons.
