Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
There are nine games in the NHL Thursday. The Maple Leafs, Bruins and Blues are the largest favorites on the docket, whereas the Penguins and Flyers are both receive short chalk on home ice. It’s worth adding that even after Toronto’s 2-1 win over Ottawa on Wednesday, the Battle of Ontario has the highest over/under total on the docket at 6.5.
Here’s your quick-hit primer with notes and tidbits to prepare you for DFS and seasonal leagues.
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New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins (-215)
As indicated by the odds, this sets up as a mismatch in Boston’s favor. The Devils have only played once in February, and the Bruins enter with an active 9-1-1 record. New Jersey did play Boston tough in the first two games of the season, but that was when David Pastrnak was on the shelf, and outside of defensemen Matt Grzelcyk (lower body) and Jakub Zboril (upper body), the Bruins are healthy up front. It is definitely worth noting that Pastrnak isn’t projected to begin the game with long-time linemates Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, as Jake DeBrusk has been lining up with Bergeron and Marchand in practice Wednesday. Pastrnak will often shift off the No. 1 line, but Boston ultimately always switches back to the Bergeron-Marchand-Pastrnak trio, so it’s probably risky to stack a particular Bruins line Thursday — even with the potentially soft matchup.
In New Jersey’s return to action Tuesday, the Devils topped the Rangers 5-2, but it will likely be a different story Thursday. The Devils don’t have the starpower or depth to match up against Boston, but Mackenzie Blackwood has been a difference maker in goal for New Jersey. The 24-year-old netminder has posted a .948 save percentage and 1.92 GAA through four starts and is unbeaten in regulation. He’s a candidate to close in on 40 saves Thursday with Boston attempting 57.19 shots per 60 minutes, which is sixth most in the league. It’s important to note the Devils own a league-low 67.7 penalty-kill percentage, albeit through just 10 games.
New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers (-110)
This will be an interesting tilt with New York losers of four consecutive games and sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Division with a 4-7-3 record. Philadelphia last played Feb. 7, but still have a number of regulars who will miss Thursday’s game. Claude Giroux, Justin Braun, Jakub Voracek, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom and Travis Konecny all remain on the COVID-19 protocol list. On the flip side, after missing two games, Artemi Panarin will return from a lower-body injury to face the Flyers Thursday.
Considering the unknowns surrounding Philadelphia, and how many important players are going to miss the game for the Flyers, this is a tough handicap. The Rangers have been criminally underachieving this season, and while Panarin’s return should help, the lack of secondary scoring behind the star Russian has been a significant hindrance. The pendulum is going to swing for Ryan Strome, Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad, and youngsters Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere also all have the potential to move the offensive needle. A matchup against a team missing key cogs and having last played 10 days ago could be just what the doctor ordered. It could also be a spot to target the New York starting goalie for a bounce-back showing, as neither Igor Shesterkin or Alexandar Georgiev has played to potential. It’s definitely worth noting Jacob Trouba is out indefinitely with a broken thumb, though.
New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins (-118)
The Islanders have hit stride of late with a 5-0-1 stretch in which they’ve surrendered just 1.34 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five while generating an impressive 12.64 high-danger scoring chances. The lone loss was in a shootout to Pittsburgh. With the return of Anthony Beauvillier, the Islanders are one of the rare teams in the league at full health, and Semyon Varlamov’s play needs to be noted, too. The veteran has 7-2-2 record, .931 save percentage and 1.89 GAA with three shutouts.
With New York’s current form and healthy lineup intact, the Penguins are a surprising favorite, even on home ice. Pittsburgh enters with a mediocre 3-4-1 active record and has the second-worst team save percentage in the league this season while allowing a healthy 3.47 goals per 60 minutes. The year-long struggle continues for Evgeni Malkin, as he’s been limited to just seven points — three goals — through 14 games, which includes just a single power-play point and no multi-point showings. While he’s scored at a 1.19 points per game pace over the previous nine years, there’s no guarantee Malkin bounces all the way back. Still, it’s almost equally unlikely he continues to miss the scoresheet so consistently.
Nashville Predators at Columbus Blue Jackets (-125)
The Predators are reeling along a 2-6 run with a minus-13 goal differential. No. 1 center Ryan Johansen remains out with an upper-body injury, and Mattias Ekholm is on injured reserve and isn’t even traveling with the team. Nashville doesn’t have the depth to compete nightly with key regulars out of the lineup. Add Nashville’s 30th-ranked 67.8 penalty-kill percentage, and this matchup checks out favorably for the Blue Jackets.
Columbus has been mediocre this year and is currently fifth in the Central Division — three points out of a playoff spot with more games played than three of the four teams ahead of them. Additionally, after allowing the fifth fewest goals per hour in the league at five-on-five last year, Columbus is allowing the most this season with the worst team save percentage. There’s probably statistical correction ahead, and with Nashville scoring just eight times there its past five games, this is a ripe matchup for a strong defensive showing. Confirmed starter Elvis Merzlikins could be an affordable target in DFS. Additionally, it’s worth noting how strong Jack Roslovic, Cam Atkinson and Patrik Laine have been of late. The trio have clicked for 13 tallies and 10 helpers through the past six games.
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs (-325)
This is the final contest in a three-game series, and the two clubs have split the first two meetings. Toronto is a giant favorite for the third consecutive time and took care of Ottawa with a 2-1 win Wednesday to improve to a league-best 12-3-2 record. The Maple Leafs’ plus-15 goal differential also paces the league, and Toronto’s 3.5 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five rank second in the league while its 32.7 power-play percentage is third best. The Maple Leafs have been excellent, and their huge odds are warranted Thursday.
Ottawa did generate more five-on-five shot attempts and high-danger scoring chances in Wednesday’s loss, though, and Toronto could be starting backup Michael Hutchinson on Thursday. Still, the Senators have surrendered the most goals per 60 minutes in the league and sport a league-worst 4-13-1 record. In a deep player pool, it’s probably risky loading up too many Senators as against-the-grain plays in DFS, but the Josh-Norris-Connor Brown–Brady Tkachuk line did attempt 13 shots and register an impressive five high-danger chances at five-on-five Wednesday.
Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals (-160)
After a lengthy layoff, Buffalo lost consecutive home games to the Islanders and scored just a single goal. This will also be the third game in four nights for the Sabres, so it’s another tough set up. Washington, on the other time, snapped an ugly four-game losing streak in which they allowed 22 goals with a 3-1 win over Pittsburgh Tuesday. The Capitals are also 3-0-1 against Buffalo this season. Perhaps, most notable for the Capitals, they’re at full strength and have a healthy lineup.
A particular note for Washington is Jakub Vrana is projected to skate with the No. 1 power-play unit, and Evgeny Kuznetsov dropping to the second group. It means there could be a couple sneaky mini-stacks to consider with Vrana and Nicklas Backstrom, and Kuznetsov and Alex Ovechkin. For Buffalo, Rasmus Ristolainen isn’t expected back in the lineup, but the Sabres appear to start with the same top-six lines as they rolled out against the Islanders. The Sabres have too many talented players to continue shooting a league-low 5.58 at five-on-five, but it’s difficult to trust starting them in DFS as anything more than contrarian fliers.
San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues (-186)
The Blues are an interesting team with 2.97 goals and just 2.17 goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five with the offense fueled by a likely unsustainable 10.48 team shooting percentage despite generating only 8.34 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. However, with San Jose allowing the third most goals per 60 minutes in the league this season, St. Louis is probably positioned to have another solid showing, especially on home ice. While the Blues are just 3-3-2 at the Enterprise Center this year, they were 23-7-5 last year.
If San Jose is able to upset the Blues Thursday, it would give the Sharks their first consecutive wins of the year. Making matters worse, San Jose’s two best scorers, Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl, have combined for a 19.4 shooting percentage that’s eyeing negative regression. Add Martin Jones’ .873 save percentage, and that Devan Dubnyk hasn’t won a game all year, and there’s not a lot to be encouraged about with the Sharks.
Los Angeles Kings at Arizona Coyotes (-155)
Amid endless off-ice distractions, the Coyotes are quietly in a playoff spot and just went 4-2-1 in a seven-game series against St. Louis. Meanwhile, Los Angeles just dominated a two-game home stretch Minnesota with 6-2 win over San Jose and a 4-0 victory against Minnesota. Still, even with the recent improved play, the Kings have surrendered a healthy 2.73 goals and 11.95 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five — both bottom-10 marks.
With Los Angeles’ noted defensive struggles, Arizona’s No. 1 line is positioned to have a solid game. Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller and Conor Garland have clicked for an impressive 5.81 goals and 19.36 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes while driving possession with a 60.1 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. They could also fly under the radar in the deep player pool. For the Kings, it’s all started and ended with Anze Kopitar this season. He’s recorded four tallies and 14 helpers through 14 games, and sidekick Dustin Brown has also been solid with 13 points — seven goals.
Minnesota Wild (-120) at Anaheim Ducks
The Wild had a two-week layoff and then lost 4-0 to Los Angeles, so it will be telling how they rebound against Anaheim. The Ducks have scored the fewest goals per 60 minutes in the league, and a 29th-ranked 8.6 power-play percentage certainly doesn’t help. Interestingly, Minnesota owns the worst power-play mark at a measly 6.7. However, the Wild have been a unique five-on-five team with a league-best 63.75 high-danger scoring chances percentage, which means they generate far more than they allow per 60 minutes. While the Wild also paced the league in the category last year, Vegas, Tampa Bay and Dallas also all had top-five marks, so there’s some statistical weight.
With all that in mind, the most important player in this game is Anaheim netminder John Gibson. He’s 5-0-1 when allowing two goals or fewer and 0-5-2 when he doesn’t. His .921 save percentage and 2.33 GAA are elite marks, and the Ducks might be the worst team in the league without Gibson. They are already close, after all.
