NHL first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for Feb. 17

There are five games in the NHL Wednesday with the four later contests all rematches from Monday, or in the case of Calgary and Vancouver the final leg of a four-game series. The Maple Leafs are the largest favorites on the docket with Calgary and Edmonton also home favorites. The Blackhawks are the only club receiving road chalk, and the Ottawa-Toronto and Winnipeg-Edmonton matchups have the highest over/under totals after there were 11 combined goals in each of their Monday contests.

Here’s a quick-hit primer for your DFS and season-long lineups.

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Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes (-134)

Make sure to note the early start time (5 p.m. ET) of the Panthers-Hurricanes tilt, because it might not be included in the featured contests at some DFS sites. This is the first meeting between the two clubs, which are tied for second place in the Central Division. It will also be interesting to see how their contrasting styles match up. Carolina typically plays high-event games with the second most shot attempts and fifth most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league, whereas Florida has attempted the 11th-fewest shots and allowed the fourth fewest shot attempts.

Florida is led offensively by Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau with Patric Hornqvist and Carter Verhaeghe also off to excellent starts, and they should have opportunities with Carolina’s recent suspect goaltending. Since Petr Mrazek (thumb) has been out, the Hurricanes own the seventh-worst team save percentage in the league. The Hurricanes offense is balanced with three lines capable of scoring and slowing down the opposition. It’s definitely worth noting how dominant Jordan Staal has been with six tallies and eight helpers through the past 10 games to pace the ‘Canes.

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs (-315)

After Toronto blew a 5-1 lead to Ottawa Monday, it would be shocking if there wasn’t a notable response from the Maple Leafs Wednesday. It’s worth noting that they are an even larger favorite Wednesday than they were Monday, It’s worth noting the shot attempts at five-on-five were tied at 52, but Toronto generated 14 high-danger scoring chances to Ottawa’s six. It’s also worth highlighting how excellent the Colin White-Nick Paul-Evgenii Dadonov line (75.0 Corsi For percentage) was, and how poorly the John Tavares–William Nylander–Zach Hyman trio played (42.9 Corsi For percentage).

Of course, the big story for Toronto Monday was Joe Thornton’s return to the No. 1 line and combining with Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner for three goals and three assists. Additionally, Matthews has now marked the scoresheet in 14 of 15 games this season for a league-leading 13 tallies and seven helpers. Expect the Maple Leafs to be popular DFS targets again Wednesday with Ottawa allowing the most goals per 60 minutes in the league. It also would be nearly shocking if Toronto captain John Tavares didn’t have a strong showing.

Chicago Blackhawks (-139) at Detroit Red Wings

With a 3-2 overtime win over Detroit Monday, the Blackhawks have now won five of their past six contests and sit in second place in the Central Division. Chicago probably was lucky to make it to extra time, though. Detroit dominated possession at five-on-five with a 60.2 Corsi For percentage while also generating 10 high-danger scoring chances to Chicago’s five. Perhaps most notable for the Red Wings was that they held both Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat off the scoresheet. It will probably be difficult to do it again Wednesday, though. Kane has registered a point in 13 of 17 contests this season and recorded seven goals and 15 assists, whereas DeBrincat has recorded a point in 10 of 13 games with eight tallies and eight helpers.

Detroit captain Dylan Larkin continues to struggle. He’s only scored once through the past 12 games and added just four assists. His current 1.69 points per 60 minutes significantly trail his 2.39 mark over the past two years. There’s obvious statistical correction ahead, and Larkin continues to receive huge minutes (20:56 of ice time per game with 3:16 on the power play). Still, it’s hard to lock in any Red Wings considering they don’t have a player with double-digit points through 17 games.

Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames (-155)

This is the final tilt of a four-game series between these two clubs, and Calgary has won two of three after topping Vancouver 4-3 in overtime Monday — the two teams traded 3-1 victories in the first two meetings. The Canucks have now lost seven of their past eight contests, and they’re allowing the second-most goals and third-most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes for the campaign. It’s not a pretty picture, and it’s surprising that head coach Travis Green continues to roll out nearly identical lines and defense pairings night in, night out expecting something to change.

Calgary has found a groove with an active 6-3 record while allowing just 1.63 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five during the stretch. Additionally, while a 105.4 PDO suggests there could be some unsustainability to the run, No. 1 goalie Jacob Markstrom’s .931 save percentage has a lot to do with the Flames’ recent success. He’s a proven commodity, and Calgary’s upcoming negative regression might not be as significant as a result. It’s also worth noting the narrow production tree in Calgary, which is helpful for fantasy purposes. Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk score from the forward corps, and Rasmus Andersson and Mark Giordano score from the blue line.

Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers (-137)

There were 11 goals in Monday’s meeting between these two teams, as the Oilers admirably battled back from a 4-1 deficit to make it a competitive 6-5 loss. Winnipeg received most of its production from their go-to players Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor and Neal Poink, whereas the Oilers were led by No. 1 line Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkin and Jesse Puljujarvi and defensemen Tyson Barrie and Evan Bouchard. It’s definitely worth noting that those five Oilers combined for 45 shot attempts, and Winnipeg only had 44 shots attempts all game.

Before overreacting to the disparity too much, a 4-1 lead will often result in the losing team pushing the play and the winning club being more conservative, but it’s still noteworthy. In particular, Bouchard has seen growth and increased usage — he logged a career-high 20:23 of ice time Monday — and has recorded an impressive four points and 22 shots through six games. Goaltending obviously wasn’t a strong suit for either club Monday, but Hellebuyck did still turn in a 40-save win. After allowing four goals on 11 shots Monday, it will be interesting to see if Edmonton goes back with Mike Smith Wednesday. The option is rolling out Mikko Koskinen, and his underwhelming .894 save percentage.