Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are 10 games in the NHL Thursday, and the Canadiens are the only team playing for the second consecutive night. The Golden Knights and Jets are the two largest favorites on the docket with Nashville, Tampa Bay and Montreal trailing progressively. The three North Division matchups have the highest over/under totals.
Here’s a quick-hit primer to help your DFS and fantasy lineups.
(Check out all our great FTN NHL offerings and our great tools including our FTN NHL Odds Tracker and daily FTN NHL DFS cheat sheets! And bring your questions to the Discord chat! And for even more hockey content check out MeanStreets on our YouTube page.)
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders (-108)
The big off-ice news out of Pittsburgh is the management changes with Ron Hextall and Brian Burke taking on front-office roles, and there’s been a lot of speculation about how that will impact the Penguins’ long-term future. However, there’s probably not going to be much immediate impact on the ice. These two teams enter Thursday’s contest with a few notable differences. To start, the Islanders have won two straight, and the Penguins have dropped consecutive games with their most recent loss a 4-3 defeat at the hands of New York. Additionally, while the Penguins have been an excellent possession team at five-on-five with a fifth-ranked Corsi For percentage, they own the second-worst team save percentage. The Islanders are the exact opposite with 21st and 14th ranks, respectively.
In their recent meeting, Pittsburgh attempted 60 shots with 18 being high-danger scoring chances, and Bryan Rust was particularly dangerous with 15 shot attempts and nine high-danger scoring chances. The Islanders new-look line of Brock Nelson, Jordan Eberle and Michael Dal Colle was the best for New York, and they could be a sneaky stack again Thursday. Nelson and Eberle are proven secondary scorers, whereas Dal Colle was a gifted scorer in the OHL and could prove to be a late bloomer.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-165) at Florida Panthers
The Lightning are up to a six-game winning streak and have allowed exactly one goal in each of their past four contests. The stretch has Tampa Bay now allowing the fewest goals against per 60 minutes (1.3) in the league. Florida enters with just five tallies through its past three outings, so this could be a tough matchup for the Panthers offense. Scoring hasn’t been an issue for the Bolts, though. Eight players have at least three goals and there are also eight skaters with at least seven points. Netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy’s 8-1-1 record, .936 save percentage and 1.80 GAA shouldn’t go unnoted, either.
With the tough matchup in mind, expect the Panthers to be unpopular DFS targets Thursday, which can provide contrarian value. While this is nothing but speculation, Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau could — and probably should — see some even-strength time together. While they’ve only been on the ice at the same time for 8:37 through Florida’s first 10 games at five-on-five, the duo have long-standing chemistry with 5.2 goals per 60 minutes over the past three years.
Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens (-152)
This is a letdown spot for the Canadiens after a 4-2 loss to Toronto Wednesday. Edmonton heads into the Bell Centre winners of five of its past six games, albeit with four of those wins coming against the lowly Senators. Still, Montreal has a rematch against Toronto Saturday, so there’s definite trap-game potential here for the Canadiens. They drove possession against the Maple Leafs on Wednesday and were arguably the better team, so the disappointing loss could sting even more. Backup Jake Allen has recorded an unsustainably high .940 save percentage through his five starts and now faces off against the league’s best one-two punch in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
With the two superstar Oilers having their respective 10-game point streaks snapped against Ottawa on Tuesday, expect McDavid and Draisaitl to return to the scoresheet. Power-play quarterback Tyson Barrie has also been excellent of late with nine points — two goals — through his past seven contests, and Montreal has a middle-of-the-road penalty-kill percentage (80.4). Sticking with special teams, the Canadiens definitely could have success with the man advantage, as the Edmonton penalty kill has been even worse this year (75.0). It’s also worth noting that this could be a high-event, high-scoring game with Montreal ranking third in goals and first in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and Edmonton ranking ninth and seventh, respectively.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Chicago Blackhawks (-115)
Much has been made of Columbus head coach John Tortorella benching Patrik Laine Monday, but there’s probably no reason to expect it to be a lingering concern. The talented winger is projected to skate with Jack Roslovic and Cam Atkinson on the No. 1 line Thursday, and Roslovic has been rolling of late with a five-game point streak consisting of two tallies and five helpers. Columbus has split each of its past six series, and rank second last in Corsi For percentage for the season while scoring just 2.49 goals and generating the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in the league at five-on-five.
It’s been an impressive three-week run for the Blackhawks with a 6-1-3 record, and netminder Kevin Lankinen has been particularly solid with a 5-1-2 record, .944 save percentage and 1.83 GAA during the stretch. However, there are definitely chinks in the armor. Chicago has an underwhelming 46.0 Corsi For percentage while scoring just 1.89 goals per 60 minutes and the fourth best team save percentage at five-on-five during the noted stretch. Considering Columbus’ goal-scoring woes, and Chicago’s recent form, this could be a low-scoring contest.
Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators (-175)
The Red Wings are in the basement of the Central Division, and the Predators are just above them. Nashville has lost five of its past six games with just a single goal scored in each of the past there, and Detroit is reeling along a 1-7-2 stretch. Additionally, Nashville ranks second-to-last and Detroit ranks fifth-to-last in five-on-five shooting percentage, so this doesn’t project to be an exciting matchup. The Predators are also clearly missing center Ryan Johansen (upper body). The Predators are probably an unjust home favorite considering their form isn’t much better than Detroit’s.
Considering the underwhelming offenses both clubs bring to the table, this could be a spot to take a flier on a starting netminder from either team. Veteran Pekka Rinne has stopped 77 of 81 shots over his past three starts for the Preds, and Red Wings netminder Thomas Greiss has stopped 85 of 90 in his past three outings. It’s definitely important to keep in mind both clubs have been awful while shorthanded this year, though. Nashville has the worst penalty-kill percentage in the league (62.8), and Detroit’s 70.0 mark is fourth-lowest.
Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets (-205)
While the Senators lost each of their recent two games against Edmonton, they held Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in check. Neither found the scoresheet in the second game, and they combined for just a single goal and two assists in the first meeting. Additionally, through the past four games, Ottawa has won the possession battle (52.3 Corsi For percentage) and owns an impressive .931 team save percentage at five-on-five. However, with 12.95 high-danger scoring chances allowed per hour, the Sens are still surrendering too many quality opportunities to opponents. So, even with some notable improvements, the Jets are huge favorites for a reason.
It was a quiet Winnipeg debut for Pierre-Luc Dubois, as he logged just 13:10 of ice time. There’s been a minor shakeup in his line, though, as Mason Appleton has replaced Trevor Lewis with Kyle Connor remaining on the other wing. Appleton owns late-bloomer potential and has collected three goals and three assists through the past seven games. This could be a sneaky line to target because Ottawa’s depth is a major weakness, and Winnipeg’s is a strength — especially up the middle. Expect Connor Hellebuyck to be one of the chalkier plays in net, too.
Carolina Hurricanes (-125) at Dallas Stars
Dallas exploded out of the gate with four consecutive wins, but the Stars are 1-2-3 since, and those first four victories came against basement-dwelling Nashville and Detroit. Carolina also beat the Stars twice in their recent two-game series with a 4-1 win and a 4-3 shootout victory. It’s definitely worth noting that Dallas has surrendered just 1.59 goals per hour and owns a high-end .937 team save percentage at five-on-five. So, with Carolina dominating possession with a league-high 57.7 Corsi For percentage, it will be interesting to see how this game plays out.
Goaltending has once again begun an issue for Carolina. Petr Mrazek (thumb) is on injured reserve, and James Reimer has allowed 16 goals with an .864 save percentage through his past four starts. Reimer is probably in a bounceback spot, but it’s also difficult to trust the inconsistent veteran. He’s notoriously streaky. The Hurricanes will receive a boost if Vincent Trocheck returns from a lower-body injury. He’s hopeful to return to the line and skate on the No. 1 power-play unit and center Nino Niederreiter and Teuvo Teravainen at even strength. It’s a favorable fantasy set up.
Calgary Flames (-139) at Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks have lost five straight with a minus-16 goal differential and sit second last in the North Division. Additionally, Vancouver has surrendered the second most goals per 60 minutes in the league this season and lost its two games against Calgary by a combined 8-2 score earlier this year. It all adds up to an unfavorable spot for the Canucks, and they’re all but playing must-win games to stay in the postseason hunt.
Calgary has been trading winning and losing streaks all season en route to a mediocre 6-5-1 record. However, there are some encouraging trends. The Flames have surrendered just 1.87 goals per hour at five-on-five while driving possession with a sixth-ranked 53.1 Corsi For percentage. Additionally, Jacob Markstrom appears to be finding top form with a .916 save percentage and 2.50 GAA for the campaign — and he also stopped 57 of 59 shots in his two wins over the Canucks, including one shutout.
Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights (-225)
The Golden Knights topped the Ducks 5-4 Tuesday, and the five-on-five shot attempts were also close. The William Karlsson–Jonathan Marchessault–Reilly Smith line was the most dangerous for Vegas, whereas Ryan Getzlaf, Adam Henrique and Troy Terry led the way for Anaheim. It was a little surprising to see Marc-Andre Fleury allow four goals on just six high-danger chances, though, and Robin Lehner will likely play better. After all, even with the four-goal outburst, the Ducks have only scored 1.97 goals per hour for the campaign.
Another high-scoring showing from Vegas is definitely in the cards, though. The Golden Knights have scored the fourth most goals and generated the third most high-danger scoring chances per hour this season, after all. All three of their lines offer value, too. Cody Glass has quietly produced at a point-per-game pace, and Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty have combined for nine goals and 17 assists through 10 games. Plucking values from Vegas might be the safe approach given its balanced scoring attack.
San Jose Sharks (-124) at Los Angeles Kings
With Tuesday’s 4-3 shootout loss to San Jose, the Kings have now lost five consecutive games and surrendered at least three goals in each. Los Angeles is also allowing a healthy 11.29 high-danger scoring chances per hour for the campaign. The Sharks have been worse, though, allowing 3.42 goals and 11.74 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes this season. As a result, it’s probably wise to fade both netminders in this contest.
Sharks center Logan Couture had his third multipoint showing of the campaign against Los Angeles on Tuesday, but his 33.3 shooting percentage through his past five contests is unsustainably high. On the flip side, Tomas Hertl hasn’t marked the scoresheet in any of the past five games and could be in a buy-low spot considering he’s locked into a scoring role. He logged 21:39 of ice time with 3:19 on the man advantage Tuesday, too. For the Kings, Anze Kopitar has been the most reliable scorer with 15 points — three goals — through 12 games.
