MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
It’s a busy 10-game night in the NHL Thursday with the Lightning, Oilers and Islanders the largest favorites on the docket. The lone 6.5 over/under total is in the Edmonton-Ottawa game, whereas the Nashville-Detroit tilt has an unusual 5.0 total, which is rare to see. It’s also worth noting the number of coin-flip matchups with the Devils, Canadiens, Rangers, Capitals and Stars all short favorites.
Here’s a game-by-game previous to set the stage for DFS and seasonal decisions ahead of Thursday’s action.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Devils at Sabres preview
(Line: Devils -129)
The Sabres topped New Jersey 5-3 Tuesday despite registering 22 fewer shot attempts. For whatever reason, the high-danger scoring chances didn’t register at Natural Stat Trick, but a look at the shot charts on Hockey Reference also suggests New Jersey had approximately twice as many dangerous opportunities. Additionally, it’s worth noting the Jack Hughes–Janne Kuokkanen–Yegor Sharangovich and Pavel Zacha–Jesper Bratt–Miles Wood lines dominated possession with 75.0 and 77.8 Corsi For percentages at five-on-five. The real difference in the outcome was Scott Wedgewood only stopped 13 of Buffalo’s 17 shots. Finally, it’s important to note that New Jersey will be without Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac after the two forwards were dealt to the Islanders Wednesday.
New Jersey No. 1 Mackenzie Blackwood stands to have a much better showing Thursday. Buffalo has scored the second-fewest goals per game, after all. The Sabres have been better of late, though. Buffalo has scored 18 goals through its current 3-0-2 stretch, and it’s been an excellent run for Casey Mittelstadt. The 22-year-old forward has three tallies and two helpers through the past four games, as the 2017 first-round selection might finally be finding his footing at the highest level. It will be important to keep tabs on Taylor Hall’s status. He was held out of Tuesday’s game, and the speculation is that it’s to keep him healthy ahead of next week’s trade deadline.
Flyers at Islanders preview
(Line: Islanders -175)
This will be the seventh meeting between the two teams, with New York winning each of the past three to improve to 3-1-2 against Philadelphia for the campaign. These two teams are definitely heading in opposite directions despite the relatively even season-long series. The Flyers are 7-11-2 since the beginning of March, whereas the Islanders have been one of the best teams in the league following a slow start and spot an active 22-6-2 record. New York has surrendered the third fewest goals per game and boast the third-best team save percentage in the league. Philadelphia has allowed the second most goals per game with the worst team save percentage. Furthering the statistical mismatch is New York’s impressive 16-1-2 home-ice record.
The Flyers boast a few formidable scorers, though. Sean Couturier has produced above a point-per-game pace, and veteran Jakub Voracek has thrown back the clock with 15 points through the past 15 games, and projected linemates Claude Giroux and Travis Konecny also have double-digit points during the stretch. Turning to the Islanders, and burying the lead, New York made a huge splash ahead of Monday’s trade deadline acquiring Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac from the Devils Wednesday. Both Palmieri and Zajac are expected to be on the ice for Thursday’s morning skate, however, it’s impossible to predict where they’ll slot into the lineup or how quickly they’ll gel with their new team.
Penguins at Rangers preview
(Line: Rangers -121)
The Rangers’ current 8-3-2 stretch has them pushing for a playoff spot and finally playing to their potential. A lot of the recent form can be attributed to improved offense, and netminder Igor Shesterkin’s 4-1-1 record, .929 save percentage and 2.45 GAA since returning from injury. Artemi Panarin has 22 points through 13 games since returning from his personal leave, and Ryan Strome, Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich and Adam Fox are also all scoring at a point-per-game pace or better through the past 15 games. It could prove to be too little, too late, but a late-season surge is clearly under way.
Pittsburgh lost 8-4 to New York Tuesday, and the Penguins have now surrendered 15 goals through their past two games. Questionable depth behind the No. 1 line is definitely being exposed, and it’s also worth noting Bryan Rust has gone four games without finding the scoresheet despite linemates Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel combining for four goals and six assists. It’s also concerning that Tristan Jarry allowed four goals on 11 shots and was pulled after the first period Tuesday because he missed the previous two games with an upper-body injury. With all this in mind, it’s not surprising to see New York a short home favorite Thursday. However, Pittsburgh has rebounded from poor stretches all season and was on a 12-2-1 run before the past two losses.
Bruins at Capitals preview
(Line: Capitals -118)
This is the fifth meeting of the season between these two teams with the first four being split. Additionally, both teams are struggling slightly of late. Boston enters with a 4-3-1, and Washington has lost three of its past five. Still, the Capitals are tied for first place in the East Division, and the Bruins have a five-point cushion with two games in hand for the final playoff spot. The Bruins do have goaltending concerns, as Tuukka Rask (upper body) and Jaroslav Halak (COVID-19) are questionable — at best. Unproven youngsters Daniel Vladar and Jeremy Swayman have played well and won three of their four combined starts, but it’s probably not sustainable. Plus, the Capitals have scored the third most goals per game and have the eighth best power-play percentage in the league.
Regardless of who’s in net, Boston still boasts an excellent team defense. The Bruins rank fifth in Corsi For percentage, have allowed the sixth fewest goals per game and rank first in penalty-kill percentage. However, offensively, Boston has taken a step back with the fifth-fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and a 17th-ranked 2.75 per game. This could be a breakout opportunity with Washington having some of its own goaltending problems. Ilya Samsonov has allowed 14 goals through his past three starts, and while Vitek Vanecek has been spectacular through his past two starts with just a single goal against in each, he’s still sporting a .911 save percentage of the campaign. Finally, it’s definitely worth reminding that David Pastrnak hasn’t been consistently skating with long-time linemates Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, and it slightly cuts into the upside of all three.
Panthers at Hurricanes preview
(Line: Hurricanes -143)
Carolina topped Florida 5-2 Tuesday to snap the Panthers’ six-game winning streak. The Hurricanes also improved to 13-2-3 on home ice and 4-0-1 against Florida for the campaign. Additionally, Carolina is now just a point behind Florida for top spot in the Central Division with two games in hand. It’s also worth noting Petr Mrazek has won consecutive starts while stopping 62 of 64 shots since returning from his thumb injury. Circling back, it’s definitely worth noting that Tuesday’s game was closer than the final score, as Carolina scored two empty-net goals and were actually outscored 2-1 at five-on-five. The Hurricanes did score twice with the man advantage to improve their league-high power-play percentage to 29.8.
With all that in mind, this projects to be another close game. Florida’s No. 1 center Aleksander Barkov has scored three goals and added two assists during his active three-game point streak. Linemate Carter Verhaeghe is also in high-end form with five tallies and six helpers through his past seven contests. The duo was in on both Florida goals Tuesday, too. Turning to the Hurricanes, they sent out some new-look lines, so it will be important to check their projected combos. Blueliner Dougie Hamilton warrants mention given he’s found the scoresheet in 17 of the past 19 contests for four tallies, 16 helpers, nine power-play points and 71 shots. He remains an elite option.
Lightning at Blue Jackets preview
(Line: Lightning -210)
The Blue Jackets upset Tampa Bay Tuesday, and the Lightning are now reeling along a 2-5 stretch — the worst of their season. Obviously, there’s bounceback potential, and the Lightning did drive five-on-five possession with a 61.0 Corsi For percentage Tuesday. It will be worth monitoring Tampa Bay’s lines ahead of puck drop, as head coach Jon Cooper pulled out the blender and experimented with seven different trios. The Anthony Cirelli–Steven Stamkos–Alex Killorn line was the most dangerous with 12 shot attempts — including three of the high-danger variety — through just 7:43 of ice time. Additionally, considering Columbus has scored the fourth fewest goals per game in the league, this is also a solid matchup for Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Russian netminder has lost three of his past five starts despite boasting a .920 save percentage.
The Columbus offense doesn’t offer much. Oliver Bjorkstrand is having a solid season, but with just three points — two goals — through the past seven games, he’s hardly a go-to option. Plus, even with their recent struggles, the Lightning have surrendered the fifth fewest goals per game and a 10th-ranked 81.7 penalty-kill percentage. It’s also worth noting that Joonas Korpisalo has stopped 68 of 73 shots through his past two starts, including his 36-save win against Tampa Bay Tuesday, so this might not be the safest matchup to load up the Lightning — even with Columbus allowing the eighth-most goals per game this year.
Jets at Canadiens preview
(Line: Canadiens -127)
Montreal is coming off a 3-2 road loss to Toronto Wednesday, so there’s also travel involved with this back-to-back spot for the Canadiens. Winnipeg, meanwhile, has been off since a 4-3 win over the Senators on Monday. More concerning than playing for the second consecutive night is Carey Price’s (upper body) status. He hasn’t yet been ruled out for Thursday’s game, but it could be a tough spot for a season debut, if Price can’t suit up and Jake Allen rests after starting Wednesday. After all, Montreal did just allow 15 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five to Toronto last night.
With Brendan Gallagher (hand) out long term, the Canadiens shuffled their forward lines, and the Phillip Danault–Jesperi Kotkaniemi–Tomas Tatar trio drove possession with 18 shot attempts at five-on-five. On the other hand, the Eric Staal–Jonathan Drouin–Tyler Toffoli line kept possession close with a 45.5 Corsi For percentage but surrendered eight high-danger scoring chances. It’ll be a work in progress to fit the right mix with Gallagher out, and Staal now in the fold. The Jets have settled in to be quite predictable. Their top three lines can all score, and it doesn’t make a significant difference how the top-six groups are arranged. However, as long as Mark Scheifele is centering Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers, they’re the most dangerous and attractive in DFS.
Oilers at Senators preview
(Line: Oilers -186)
This is the second game in consecutive nights between these two teams, as the Oilers topped the Senators 4-2 Wednesday. It was the Connor McDavid–Leon Draisaitl show. Edmonton loaded up its top line with McDavid, Draisaitl and Jesse Puljujarvi, and McDavid and Draisaitl were in on all four goals and each had four-point nights. Power-play quarterback Tyson Barrie also collected two assists. The Oilers have been experimenting with McDavid and Draisaitl playing together more at five-on-five over the past two weeks, and it definitely boosts both their fantasy values — and whoever has the luxury to play with them. Mikko Koskinen started for the Oilers Wednesday, so look to Mike Smith as a solid DFS play Thursday. The Senators have scored the eighth fewest goals per game this season and have the 26th-ranked power-play percentage, after all.
With all that in mind, it’s definitely important to note that the Sens drove possession at five-on-five and limited Edmonton to just three high-danger scoring chances while generating nine of their own. Additionally, even Edmonton’s mentioned No. 1 line lost the five-on-five possession battle and only generated a single high-danger chance while surrendering four. It’s probably not something to read too much into, but it does reinforce how competitive Ottawa has become over the course of the season.
Predators at Red Wings preview
(Line: Predators -157)
Nashville topped Detroit 3-2 in a shootout Tuesday to improve to 10-2 since mid-March while also climbing into a playoff position in the Central Division. The Predators also improved to 5-2 against the Red Wings for the campaign, and netminder Juuse Saros’ dominant play continued. He’s won seven of his past nine starts with a .964 save percentage and 1.21 GAA. Nashville’s run is all the more impressive considering its lengthy injury list, and Dante Fabbro (undisclosed) left Tuesday’s game after seven shifts. At some point, statistical correction is going to catch up to Saros, and the lineup is thin. Just note, it might not happen against the Red Wings Thursday.
Detroit has been more competitive of late with a 3-2-2 record, and Thomas Greiss has somewhat quietly posted a .940 save percentage through his past five appearances. However, offensively, there aren’t many attractive targets. Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha have potential, and Filip Hronek is in solid form with two tallies, 10 helpers and five power-play points through his past 15 games. Still, as noted, Nashville is rolling and has only allowed 19 goals over the past 12 games.
Stars at Blackhawks preview
(Line: Stars -118)
Dallas is quickly running out of time to make a playoff push, and Tuesday’s 4-2 loss to Chicago stung. Superstar Patrick Kane posted his 15th multi-point game of the season to lead the way for the Blackhawks, and despite driving possession and generating more high-danger scoring chances, the Stars only beat Kevin Lankinen twice on 27 shots (58 attempts). Dallas registered 14 high-danger scoring chances to Chicago’s nine. Still, the Stars have surrendered the second fewest goals and third fewest five-on-five high-danger chances per 60 minutes this season, so the Stars remain a tough matchup for opponents.
Tuesday’s win kept Chicago in the playoff hunt, but the Blackhawks’ current 5-10 stretch isn’t encouraging, and it’s definitely possible that Chicago has been punching above its weight class for much of the season. After all, the Blackhawks have 18 wins, and Kane has a multi-point showing in 13 of them. Spun the other way, Chicago has only lost twice when Kane has a multi-point showing. His linemate Alex DeBrincat is also having a banner season with 20 goals and 18 assists through 36 games, and their center Kirby Dach has found the scoresheet in three of the past four games. It’s also worth noting that Adam Boqvist continues to produce offensively with a rock-solid 1.76 points per 60 minutes.
