Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are nine NHL games Tuesday, so it’s a deep DFS player pool with plenty of options. However, there aren’t oodles of significant favorites or mismatches to hone in. Tampa Bay and San Jose are the lone big favorites whereas the Bruins-Flyers, Capitals-Islanders, Penguins-Rangers and Stars-Blackhawks are all projected to be close. It’s also worth noting the Bruins-Flyers are playing for the second consecutive night after Philadelphia topped Boston 3-2 in overtime Monday.
Here’s a game-by-game preview of Tuesday’s action for DFS contests and seasonal leagues.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Sabres at Devils preview
(Line: Devils -155)
Buffalo might be beginning to turn the corner with a 2-0-2 active record, whereas New Jersey enters on a 1-3-2 stretch. Additionally, there could be sneaky fantasy values in this matchup, as the two teams have met six times already this season, and there have been 37 total goals. So, while these are definitely two of the worst clubs in the league, it’s probably not a game to completely gloss over — even if you’re just looking at a standalone play. Still, either starter might be the best option. After all, the Sabres have scored the fewest goals per game in the league, and the Devils the fifth fewest.
While there’s been some notable hit or miss from game to game with Mackenzie Blackwood, he’s still posted a rock-solid 4-2-2 record, .923 save percentage and 2.58 GAA through his past eight starts. Similarly, Linus Ullmark boasts a 2-1-1, .925, 2.46 line through four starts since returning from a lower-body injury. Offensively, power-play quarterbacks Ty Smith and Rasmus Dahlin are both affordable options, and Casey Mittelstadt has been sneaky good for Buffalo with a three-game point streak skating atop the depth chart.
Capitals at Islanders preview
(Line: Islanders -129)
This will be the fifth meeting between the two clubs with the Capitals winning the first three, and the Islanders running over Washington 8-4 last Thursday. The two clubs are first and second in the East Division with Washington two points ahead. It’s a powerhouse matchup and also a clash of specialties. Washington has scored the second most goals per game, whereas the Islanders have surrendered the third fewest. Goaltending has also been a bit of a contrast. Ilya Samsonov has an .896 save percentage for the campaign, including an .831 mark through his past three outings, whereas Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin have combined for the fourth best team save percentage in the league — Washington ranks 25th.
One interesting development for the Capitals has been Jakub Vrana being a healthy scratch the past two games. After all, he paces the club in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five through the past three years. It would be surprising to see him out of the lineup much longer, and there’s bounce-back potential as long as he returns to a top-six role. Mathew Barzal is leading the Isles in scoring and had a five-point night in the noted 8-4 rout of the Capitals. Additionally, he’s sporting a four-game point streak consisting of four tallies and five helpers. There’s not a significant supporting cast surrounding Barzal, though, as the only other Islanders with double-digit points through the past 15 games are Brock Nelson, Jordan Eberle, Josh Bailey and Nick Leddy.
Penguins at Rangers preview
(Line: Rangers -124)
It’s now or never for the Rangers — while they’re beginning to win more consistently, they’re also still five points behind Boston for the final playoff spot in the East Division — and the Bruins have two games in hand. Additionally, with Pittsburgh entering on a 12-3-1 tear, New York is definitely up against it despite their own impressive 7-3-2 active stretch. The Blueshirts have received a boost from Igor Shesterkin’s return to the crease, as the Russian netminder has posted a 3-1-1 record with a .933 save percentage and 2.14 GAA. Offense hasn’t been a problem, either. Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome and Pavel Buchnevich have all produced at better than a point-per-game pace during the noted 12-contest stretch.
It probably shouldn’t be viewed as a plus-matchup for the Penguins considering New York has surrendered the 11th fewest goals per game and boasts the fourth best penalty-kill percentage in the league. Plus, Shesterkin’s noted strong play. Still, Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel continue to fill the net with a combined 12 goals and 20 assists through the past eight games to improve to 5.26 goals per hour for the campaign. It’s also worth noting that No. 1 goalie Tristan Jarry declared himself 100% healthy after missing two games with an upper-body injury. He’s 7-1-1 with a .930 save percentage and 2.16 GAA through his past nine starts, too.
Bruins at Flyers preview
(Line: Bruins -132)
The Flyers topped the Bruins 3-2 in overtime Monday to pull within three points of Boston for the final playoff spot in the East Division — albeit with the Bruins still having two games in hand. However, Tuesday’s game will be critical to Philadelphia closing the gap. This will be the seventh meeting between the two teams, and the Flyers have been held to just 15 goals and Monday’s win was their first against Boston all season. For Philadelphia, it’s been Sean Couturier and Ivan Provorov leading the way. Couturier is up to nine points — five goals — through his past seven outings, and Provorov has picked up two tallies and three helpers through the past four games.
Boston could have notable goaltending issues with Tuukka Rask (upper body) already ruled out for Tuesday’s game, and Jaroslav Halak testing positive for COVID-19 Monday. Daniel Vladar started Monday, but it will likely be either Jeremy Swayman or Callum Booth Tuesday, and neither have made an NHL start before. The Bruins have also split up the Patrice Bergeron–Brad Marchand–David Pastrnak line over the past couple games with Craig Smith lining up alongside Bergeron and Marchand, and Pastrnak skating with David Krejci and Nick Ritchie. While it definitely spreads out the Boston offensive attack, it probably limits the fantasy upside of Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak to an extent. It’s worth noting Bergeron is riding a four-game point streak with 20 shots, and Marchand and Pastrnak are still producing at better than a point-per-game pace for the campaign.
Panthers at Hurricanes preview
(Line: Hurricanes -155)
This is a tape-measuring matchup in the Central Division with Florida sitting atop the standings and entering with a six-game winning streak. Carolina is just three points behind the Panthers, and the Hurricanes also have two games in hand and have also got seven of a possible eight points through the first four meetings between the two clubs. The Hurricanes also received a boost with netminder Petr Mrazek returning from a lengthy absence due to a thumb injury and posting a 28-shot shutout against Dallas Sunday. Offensively, the club continues to be led by Vincent Trocheck, Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas and Dougie Hamilton, but this is a tough matchup.
The Panthers have allowed the eighth-fewest goals and fourth-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season, and Florida has only surrendered nine goals during his current six-game winning streak. Additionally, both Aleksander Barkov and Patric Hornqvist have found the scoresheet in consecutive games after returning from their respective injuries. It’s not a great matchup for the Florida offensive, though. Carolina has allowed the fifth-fewest goals per game, and the Hurricanes own the second-best save percentage at five-on-five in the league.
Lightning at Blue Jackets preview
(Line: Lightning -220)
The Blue Jackets have played Tampa Bay tough this season and split the first four games of the season series while also outscoring the Lightning 12-9. Still, Tampa Bay is a significant favorite for good reason Tuesday. The Lightning should be motivated to have a strong showing following Sunday’s 5-1 loss to the last-place Red Wings. Plus, Tampa Bay is among the statistical elite and a definite Stanley Cup contender. The Lightning have scored the third most goals per game, allowed the fourth fewest and own the best five-on-five team save percentage in the league. They also have the third best power-play percentage and a 10th-ranked 81.8 penalty-kill percentage.
Columbus enters with an active 6-12-4 record, the second-worst Corsi For percentage in the league and scored the fourth-fewest goals per game while allowing the eighth most. It should prove to be a solid spot for Andrei Vasilevskiy, and he’s won his past two starts with just three goals allowed and a .953 save percentage to improve his ratios to a Vezina-caliber 23-5-1 record with .932 and 1.96 ratios. As noted, it’s also a good matchup for the Lightning offense. Defenseman Victor Hedman has probably been the most consistent scorer, though. He’s found the scoresheet in three straight games and is averaging a career-high 25:31 of ice time with 3:28 on the power-play. It’s also worth noting that Steven Stamkos has collected just two assists and 11 shots through his past six games, so there’s probably statistical correction ahead for the proven scorer.
Predators at Red Wings preview
(Line: Predators -157)
Nashville’s current 9-2 heater has the Predators sitting in a playoff position and finally living up to their potential. They’ve topped Detroit in four of six meetings this season, including twice — and by a combined 9-1 score — during the noted 11-game surge. One of the biggest differences has been netminder Juuse Saros’ play, as he’s won six of his past eight starts with an otherworldly .968 save percentage and 1.13 GAA. Veteran Pekka Rinne has also won each of his past three starts with .939 and 1.95 marks. Obviously, both netminders are likely to see some negative statistical regression moving forward, but Detroit doesn’t check out as a scary opponent. The Red Wings have scored the second-fewest goals per game and sport the 29th-ranked power-play percentage.
Offensively, Nashville does have some question marks with Filip Forsberg (upper body) and Matt Duchene (lower body) already out, and Viktor Arvidsson (upper body) questionable after leaving Saturday’s game. Additionally, after Eeli Tolvanen and Roman Josi, there hasn’t been consistent scoring from any Preds. With that in mind, Thomas Greiss could be a contrarian candidate considering his .941 save percentage and 1.86 GAA through his past four appearances. It’s also worth noting power-play quarterback Filip Hronek has been excellent for Detroit with 12 points through his past 14 games, although it isn’t a great matchup given how well the Predators’ netminders have been of late.
Stars at Blackhawks preview
(Line: Blackhawks -121)
A model of consistency, Dallas enters on a 5-5-5 stretch and is five points out of playoff spot with three games in hand. The Blackhawks are in a mini slide with an active 4-10 record and are also now two points out of a postseason position. Both teams need to string together a winning streak to climb the standings. The Blackhawks will need better goaltending, as No. 1 Kevin Lankinen has skidded to a 4-7 stretch with an underwhelming .910 save percentage and 2.94 GAA. Dallas, meanwhile, will need more offensive punch. The Stars have scored the fourth-fewest five-on-five goals per 60 minutes in the league. However, they’ve also surrendered the second fewest and boast the fifth-best team save percentage.
Superstar Patrick Kane has cooled down with just a single goal, six assists and 20 shots through his past nine games, and he’s only scored one even-strength goal through the past 16 contests. In a softer matchup, he’d be a strong bounce-back candidate, but is definitely still in play as an against-the-grain target. The Blackhawks are a team to target because of their poor defensive play, as Chicago ranks 28th in penalty-kill percentage and has surrendered a healthy 3.08 goals per game. Dallas’ Roope Hintz–Jason Robertson duo could be a serviceable mini stack. They’ve combined for a respectable 4.66 goals and 13.45 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes this season.
Ducks at Sharks preview
(Line: Sharks -182)
Somewhat out of nowhere, San Jose has climbed into playoff content on the back of Martin Jones’ spectacular play in net. The veteran has posted a high-end 7-1-1 record, .942 save percentage and 1.86 GAA through his past nine starts. So, with Anaheim sporting a single regulation win through its past 24 games, it definitely checks out as a solid spot to target Jones again Tuesday. Plus, the Ducks have scored the third-fewest goals per game and have the worst power-play percentage in the league.
It’s also a good matchup for the San Jose offense. Anaheim has surrendered the third-most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and its 76.6 penalty-kill percentage ranks 24th in the league. The Sharks have relied on a balanced scoring attack of late with Evander Kane and Tomas Hertl’s four goals each tied for the team lead through the past 10 games. It’s worth noting Logan Couture is in the midst of a lengthy slump with just a single goal and three assists through his past 14 games. He’s a prime target for positive statistical regression Tuesday. It’s also worth noting Anaheim is riddled with injuries, so the matchup is all the more favorable for the Sharks.
