Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a busy 10-game DFS slate in the NHL Thursday. The Bruins and Hurricanes are the two largest favorites on the docket with the Maple Leafs also receiving significant chalk. Vancouver, Toronto, St. Louis, Minnesota and Edmonton are also all playing for the second consecutive night.
Here’s your game-by-game preview to help with DFS and season-long lineups.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Stars at Lightning preview
(Line: Lightning -162)
This is an important game for both clubs, as the Stars are two points back of fourth place in the Central Division, while the Lightning are three points behind the top-ranked Hurricanes. It’s the sixth meeting between the two clubs, and Tampa Bay has won four times and held Dallas to just eight goals over the five games. The Stars have been the better defensive team for the campaign with just 2.51 goals against per game and the fewest high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league. Of course, the Lightning are the superior offensive club with the fourth-most goals per game in the league.
Both teams have major contributors out, so it’ll be important to double-check lineups, but the top line for each has been solid of late. The Lightning appear to have found a nice fit in Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat and Alex Barre-Boulet with the latter scoring in consecutive games and registering six shots in each outing. Just note, the word is starting to surface about Barre-Boulet, so he probably won’t fly too far under the DFS radar. The Roope Hintz–Jason Robertson–Joe Pavelski line has been leading the way for Dallas with a 58.7 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five and 4.49 goals per 60 minutes overall. It’s also worth adding that Hintz and Robertson rank 12th and 15th in points per 60 minutes in the league, respectively.
Sabres at Bruins preview
(Line: Bruins -400)
While this should prove to be a layup matchup for the Bruins, Buffalo did win their most recent meeting 6-4 last Friday. Still, Boston is the better team and could leapfrog the Islanders into third place in the East Division with a win. It’s also worth highlighting how significant the statistical mismatch is. The Bruins rank fourth in Corsi For percentage, fourth in goals against per game and second in penalty-kill percentage, whereas the Sabres rank 27th in Corsi, 28th in goals per game and 28th in goals against per game. It all adds up to Boston’s starting goalie being a solid DFS play.
There’s not a lot to be excited about with the Sabres. Sam Reinhart has been scorching hot with nine goals and two assists through his past 10 contests, but his 28.1 shooting percentage during the stretch screams negative regression. Additionally, Casey Mittelstadt has shown off with 13 points — eight tallies — through his past 16 outings, but the noted tough matchup shouldn’t be overlooked in a deep player pool. For Boston, the top options are all in play considering how poorly Buffalo has been defensively, and the Sabres are starting Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. It will be just the third career start for the rookie.
Flyers at Devils preview
(Line: Flyers -124)
With Philadelphia all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, and New Jersey already looking forward to next season, this is a tricky one to handicap. However, it’s important to note that they’ve played high-scoring games thus far with 36 total goals through five meetings. Additionally, this is the third of four straight games between them, and they’ve split the first two. Philadelphia has allowed the most goals per game in the league this season, and New Jersey has surrendered the third most. They also respectively rank last and second-to-last in team save percentage, so the high-scoring outcomes aren’t surprising.
The Flyers have been rolling out a veteran top line of Sean Couturier, Jakob Voracek and Claude Giroux, and the trio has clicked for five goals and seven assists through the past four games. It’s a stack to keep in mind. If turning to the Devils, it’s likely best to look at standalone plays. Jack Hughes has produced a respectable 10 points and 43 shots through his past 12 games, whereas Nico Hischier has three goals, an assist and 19 shots through his past six outings. It’s also worth noting Ty Smith is projected to quarterback the No. 1 power-play unit for New Jersey, and the rookie has posted a respectable 1.52 points per 60 minutes this season.
Islanders at Rangers preview
(Line: Rangers -127)
It will probably prove to be too little, too late for the Rangers to make the playoffs, but their late-season, 14-5-1 surge has been impressive. No team has scored more goals during the stretch, and Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad and Ryan Strome have all scored at better than a point-per-game pace. Additionally, of late, Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko have begun contributing more consistently. The Blueshirts have now scored the sixth-most goals per game in the league this season, too. They’ve also been sound defensively all season allowing the seventh fewest (2.6 per game) and sporting the fifth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league.
Sticking with the defensive side of the game, the Islanders have been one of the best all year. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes and the second-fewest goals per game and rank sixth in penalty-kill percentage. Their team save percentage also ranks second in the league. Additionally, the Isles have won four of six meetings with the Rangers and held them to just 12 goals. It hasn’t been a good stretch for the Islanders, though. They enter with an active 3-5-1 record, and Anthony Beauvillier is their leading scorer with two tallies and four helpers during the skid.
Penguins at Capitals preview
(Line: Penguins -113)
This is arguably the marquee matchup of the evening, as the Penguins can climb atop the East Division with a regulation win over Washington. It’s been a competitive season series, too. Pittsburgh has won five of the six meetings, but three have been overtime or shootout victories. Additionally, there have been a lot of high-scoring games with 41 total goals through the six matchups. It’s also worth noting how well they both have played of late. Pittsburgh enters with an active 13-4-1 record, and Washington has gone 12-6 during the same timeframe. The Capitals rank second in goals per game and third in power-play percentage, and the Penguins rank fourth and eighth in the respective categories.
Burying the lead, Alex Ovechkin’s (lower body) status is critical to monitor Thursday. He’s missed the past two outings, and while the Capitals won both games without him, they’re obviously a better team with No. 8 in the lineup. It’s also worth noting that John Carlson (undisclosed) didn’t participate in the morning skate and is a game-time decision for Thursday’s game. It all adds up to the Caps likely being without at least one of their best players. Turning to Pittsburgh, Evgeni Malkin (lower body) has been cleared for contact and could return from a 21-game absence. With so much uncertainty surrounding both teams, it’s probably best to let the dust settle before locking players into your DFS lineups. However, Pittsburgh’s No. 1 line of Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust is unlikely to split up, and they’ve combined for 25 goals and 37 assists during the previously noted 18-game stretch.
Red Wings at Hurricanes preview
(Line: Hurricanes -385)
The Red Wings have flashed a few times down the stretch, including a two-game road sweep over the Hurricanes earlier this month. In fact, Detroit has won four of seven meetings between the two clubs. However, as indicated by the odds, Carolina is expected to win Thursday. The Hurricanes can pad their division lead, and while they have been a little less consistent of late, they’ve only lost in regulation twice in April and gone 9-2-4 for the month. With Detroit scoring just 2.24 goals per game — second fewest in the league — this is also a solid spot to tee up ‘Canes projected starter Alex Nedeljkovic in DFS. He’s gone 13-4-3 with a .932 save percentage and 1.94 GAA this year, after all.
Strengthening the case for the Hurricanes are a couple statistical mismatches. Carolina has the third-best Corsi For percentage and best power-play percentage in the league, whereas Detroit ranks 30th and 24th in the two respective categories. Additionally, the Hurricanes received a huge boost with Teuvo Teravainen’s return to the lineup, and he’s projected to skate with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov on the No. 1 line. The trio are stack candidates, and the second line of Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter and Martin Necas will also probably be dangerous. Of course, Dougie Hamilton always warrants mention, and he ranks seventh in points and first in shots among blueliners.
Canucks at Maple Leafs preview
(Line: Maple Leafs -295)
There have been some peaks and valleys for the Maple Leafs over the past month-plus, but they’re securely atop the division and sport an active 9-3-2 record. They’re a sizable favorite Thursday, and the Canucks just lost three of four games to the Senators. It’s also worth noting that Toronto should have some added motivation after losing consecutive games to Vancouver in mid-April. The jury is also still out on just how competitive the Canucks can be following their lengthy layoff due to COVID-19 protocols and jam-packed schedule. This will be Vancouver’s third road game in four nights and second in a row. That said, Toronto is also playing its second game in consecutive nights with travel after topping Montreal 4-1 Wednesday.
The Maple Leafs have scored 13 goals during their three-game winning streak, and the No. 1 line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Nick Foligno have combined for five goals and seven assists during the stretch. While expensive in DFS, the trio are definitely strong candidates to keep it rolling Thursday. Vancouver has surrendered the eighth most goals per game in the league (3.19), after all. It’s probably not the best spot to load up on Canucks in daily contests Thursday, but their best players have been leading the way through six games since returning from the long layoff. Quinn Hughes and Bo Horvat have collected five points each, and J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser both have four apiece.
Panthers at Blackhawks preview
(Line: Panthers -162)
Chicago masqueraded as a playoff team for a long time, but its current 10-15-1 stretch since the beginning of March wasn’t good enough to keep pace in the competitive Central Division. The Blackhawks have since been leapfrogged by the Predators and Stars and are now all but out of the postseason picture. Poor defense and goaltending have been major contributors, in addition to the lack of a supporting cast. Chicago only scored 65 goals during the noted run, and Patrick Kane was in on 26 of them — 40 percent. No. 1 netminder Kevin Lankinen has an underwhelming .896 save percentage and 3.28 GAA during the stretch, too. It all adds up to a potentially tough couple weeks to finish out the campaign for the Blackhawks.
Turning to Florida, if everything breaks right, the Panthers could be tied for first place in the Central Division Friday. The Cats have been able to continue winning despite consistent injuries, and Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Anthony Duclair and Sam Bennett are all scorching hot. There’s mini-stack potential with both the Barkov-Duclair and Huberdeau-Bennett combos. Chicago has the fifth-worst penalty-kill percentage in the league and surrendered a healthy 3.18 goals per game this season, after all. This is also a potential bounce-back spot for Sergei Bobrovsky, as he’s only won two of his past seven starts while posting a disastrous .884 save percentage and 3.48 GAA.
Blues at Wild preview
(Line: Wild -148)
The Blues pulled off a road upset over Minnesota Wednesday despite allowing 12 high-danger scoring chances and only generating three of their own. St. Louis received multi-point showings from Mike Hoffman, David Perron, Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, and Jordan Binnington turned away 26 of 29 shots to win his third consecutive game. It’ll probably be Ville Husso between the pipes for the Blues on Thursday, though, and he sports a discouraging .887 save percentage and 3.43 GAA. It’s worth noting a late-game line switch to unit Thomas, Hoffman and Kyrou proved beneficial for St. Louis, so the trio could be worth another look Thursday.
Minnesota will probably start Kaapo Kahkonen in Game 2 of the back-to-back set, and the Finn has won consecutive starts while stopping 53 of 58 shots. He sports a respectable .910 save percentage for the campaign, but Kahkonen probably isn’t the best DFS option Thursday. Offensively, it’s worth highlighting that Victor Rask, Mats Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov had a 75.0 Corsi For percentage and generated four high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five Wednesday. If St. Louis doesn’t find an answer for them, expect another strong showing. Finally, it’s worth noting that the Wild have only beaten St. Louis once this season and have scored just eight goals through the four meetings.
Flames at Oilers preview
(Line: Oilers -127)
Monday’s loss to Montreal was probably the end of Calgary’s postseason hopes, but the Flames are still battling and are also far from mathematically eliminated. This two-game series against Edmonton will be telling, and the Oilers have won five of the previous eight meetings while scoring 3.63 goals per game. The Flames have an interesting mini-stack to consider in Elias Lindholm and Johnny Gaudreau, as the duo have clicked for 10 goals and eight assists through the past eight games. Mark Giordano’s six points rank second during the noted stretch, as there’s been limited scoring depth for Calgary of late — and for most of the campaign. It is worth adding that Jacob Markstrom has been in excellent form of late with a .924 save percentage and 1.77 GAA through his past eight starts, so there’s definite contrarian potential for those interested in taking a significant risk.
Everything continues to begin and end with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton, and the duo remain high-end options and matchup-proof scorers. However, they’re back to centering their own respective lines of late, which makes it harder to hone in on a single stack. While Draisaitl probably has the better linemates currently in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamamoto, McDavid has torched the Flames for 15 points — seven goals — through the eight meetings this season. Additionally, McDavid’s currently on a sterling five-game stretch consisting of five tallies and 10 helpers. Assembling your DFS lineups almost has to begin with the decision to lock in or fade No. 97.
