Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a busy 10-game slate in the NHL Thursday. The Bruins, Penguins, Lightning and Stars are the largest favorites on the docket, whereas the Capitals-Islanders, Hurricanes-Panthers, Maple Leafs-Jets and Senators-Canucks matchups are all projected to be close. The two highest over/under totals are in the Devils-Penguins and Flyers-Rangers tilts.
Here’s your game-by-game preview to help with DFS and season-long lineups.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
(Check out all our great FTN NHL offerings and our great tools including our FTN NHL Odds Tracker and daily FTN NHL DFS cheat sheets! And bring your questions to the Discord chat! And for even more hockey content check out MeanStreets on our YouTube page.)
Maple Leafs at Jets preview
(Line: Maple Leafs -136)
The Maple Leafs have lost five consecutive games and have allowed 21 goals in the process. It’s resulted in head coach Sheldon Keefe calling out the goaltending, and Toronto will also be without sparkplug Zach Hyman (knee) for at least the rest of April. One bright spot for the Maple Leafs is that John Tavares has been scorching hot during the stretch with four goals and five assists, and linemate William Nylander also has picked up a tally and three helpers through two games since returning to action. While Toronto will likely come out with a strong effort Thursday, handicapping them against the second-place Jets is difficult. With a deep DFS player pool, it’s not out of the question to be cautious about rolling out too many Maple Leafs.
Winnipeg won’t have a cakewalk Thursday, and No. 1 netminder Connor Hellebuyck will definitely be tested. He’s been solid but unspectacular of late with a 4-2 record, .914 save percentage and 2.37 GAA. The Jets will also receive a huge boost with Blake Wheeler’s return to the lineup, as he’s missed the past six games with a concussion. He’s projected to join Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor on the No. 1 line, and Pierre-Luc Dubois is expected to center Nikolaj Ehlers and Paul Stastny. Considering Toronto’s current form, there’s potential for the Jets to have a solid showing. Last game against the Maple Leafs, Scheifele, Ehlers, Connors and Neal Pionk all had multi-point showings, after all.
Bruins at Sabres preview
(Line: Bruins -305)
This is a notable mismatch, and the Bruins have beaten Buffalo in all four meetings this season and surrendered just five goals. Boston has surrendered the sixth-fewest goals per game for the campaign and sports the best penalty-kill percentage in the league, whereas Buffalo has the third fewest goals, so this projects as an excellent spot for Tuukka Rask. He shut out the Sabres Tuesday to improve to 3-0 with a .955 save percentage and 1.33 GAA through three starts since returning from his lengthy injury absence. It’s worth noting that Casey Mittelstadt, Sam Reinhart and Rasmus Dahlin have been contributing regular offense of late, but it’s hard to turn to them confidently considering how well Boston has shut them down this season.
Boston is now 5-0 with Taylor Hall in the lineup, and the sneaky addition of Mike Reilly shouldn’t go understated. The defenseman has collected three helpers through five games with the Bruins, and he’s up to 22 assists for the campaign. It’s a scary thought to think Boston has both beefed up its depth and is returning to full health as the playoffs near. For DFS purposes, the No. 1 line of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand should be considered, and it’s also worth noting that Matt Grzelcyk returned Tuesday and is also back quarterbacking the No. 1 power-play unit.
Capitals at Islanders preview
(Line: Islanders -124)
It seems every time the Islanders appear headed for a skid, they bounce back with a winning streak. After recently losing consecutive games to the Bruins, New York shut out Philadelphia Sunday, and then beat the Rangers 6-1 Tuesday. The Islanders have dominated defensively during their active 20-7-1 run and allowed just 45 five-on-five goals during the stretch — 1.61 per game. It was also encouraging to see the offensive breakout against the Rangers, as the Islanders had scored just 11 goals through their previous eight contests. Still, with the inconsistent offensive results in mind, this probably isn’t a favorable matchup to go wild with Isles in DFS contests.
The Capitals have won three of the five meetings against New York this season, and they enter with an active 16-7 record and can pull out into first place in the East Division. Burying the lead, these two teams are tied for the division lead with 62 points apiece and this being the 47th game for each. It’s also a meeting of offense vs. defense, as Washington ranks second in goals per game, and New York ranks second in goals against per game. As a result, it’s probably not a plus-matchup to tee up Cap as anything other than against-the-grain candidates. Of course, if Washington is able to fill the net, there’s contest-winning potential because they could be low owned.
Blue Jackets at Lightning preview
(Line: Lightning -265)
Columbus has plummeted to the bottom of the Central Division with a 2-12-2 record, and with a 7-16-2 road record for the campaign, it’s obvious why the Blue Jackets are such a huge underdog Thursday. Offensively, Columbus has scored the fewest goals in the league during the noted 16-game stretch with just Jack Roslovic and Cam Atkinson reaching double-digit points. As a result, it’s a ripe spot for Vezina Trophy candidate Andrei Vasilevskiy to pad his stats, or backup Curtis McElhinney to show some improvement. It’s also an opportunity for Tampa Bay to gain some momentum. The Lightning are struggling along a 6-8 stretch, which is arguably their worst of the campaign.
Inconsistent scoring has been a huge issue with the Lightning, and they’ve juggled their lines multiple times over the noted 6-8 stretch with underwhelming results. An 8.7 shooting percentage can partially explain, as their year-long mark is a fifth-ranked 10.9. However, the absence of both Steven Stamkos (lower body) and Nikita Kucherov (hip) has taken a huge toll, too. It’s worth noting that defenseman Victor Hedman paces the club in points and checks out as a high-end matchup against the lowly Blue Jackets. Additionally, while Alex Barre-Boulet hasn’t found the scoresheet through six games, he’s projected to skate on the No. 1 line and with the top power-play unit again Thursday. He’s an accomplished scorer at the lower levels, so the 23-year-old center checks out as a low-salary flier.
Hurricanes at Panthers preview
(Line: Hurricanes -129)
This is another matchup for first place, and the Hurricanes enter in strong form taking three of a possible four points in their two-game series against the third-place Lightning, and recently sweeping both the Predators and Panthers. The stretch has Carolina’s active record up to 18-4-4, and the ‘Canes also have two games in hand on Florida. Even with the Panthers allowing the 10th fewest goals per game in the league, Carolina’s offensive attack is deep and formidable. The Hurricanes also rank second in the league in power-play percentage. Sebastian Aho, Vincent Trocheck, Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal, Martin Necas, Nino Niederreiter and Dougie Hamilton have all been consistent contributors this year and are worth considering as standalones or parts of a Carolina stack.
The Panthers have gone 1-3-2 against Carolina this season while being held to an underwhelming 13 goals through the six games. It doesn’t mean Florida can’t have a strong showing Thursday, but it’s definitely worth noting. The Panthers had a huge offensive outburst from its new-look second line Tuesday, as Sam Bennett, Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Duclair clicked for three goals and five assists. Florida is a little nicked up, though. Patric Hornqvist (rest) and MacKenzie Weegar (upper body) expected back Thursday, but Mason Marchment (upper body) sustained an injury Tuesday, and Noel Acciari (upper body) is questionable. Additionally, Carter Verhaeghe (upper body) is on a weekly timeline, and Aaron Ekblad (leg) is out for the year. Still, the Panthers have been battling injuries all season, so it’s probably best not to write them off.
Devils at Penguins preview
(Line: Penguins -295)
This is a rematch of Tuesday’s wild game that saw New Jersey storm back and score six goals in the third period after allowing six themselves through the first two frames. The end result was a 7-6 win for Pittsburgh. Expecting Thursday’s bout to be a high-scoring affair is probably ill-advised, though, as it shouldn’t surprise if Pittsburgh stuck to basics and focused on playing stout defense. Additionally, even with Penguins’ No. 1 Tristan Jarry’s dud Tuesday, he’s still cruising along a rock-solid 17-4-2 stretch with a .919 save percentage and 2.55 GAA. He’s a DFS candidate Thursday, considering New Jersey has lost 11 of its past 12 games. The Penguins have also won four of five meetings in the season series.
Offensively, look for Pittsburgh to have another strong showing. They’re also receiving more consistent scoring behind the No. 1 line of late, too. Jared McCann, Jason Zucker and Jeff Carter have turned into a capable second line, whereas Teddy Blueger and Evan Rodrigues each have two goals and two assists through the past five games. Obviously, the Sidney Crosby–Jake Guentzel–Bryan Rust trio is the go-to stack, though. Defenseman Kris Letang has also racked up a rock-solid 14 points and 31 shots through his past 14 outings and checks out as a solid addition to a Pittsburgh stack or as a standalone play.
Flyers at Rangers preview
(Line: Rangers -175)
The Rangers received a wakeup call Tuesday with a 6-1 loss to the Islanders, so it will be telling if they bounce back with a strong showing against the floundering Flyers. Philadelphia has only won consecutive games once since the beginning of March and sports an underwhelming 9-14-4 record during the stretch while allowing a league-high 3.93 goals per contest. Interestingly, New York has scored a league-high 3.92 goals per game during the same timeframe. Additionally, while the two teams have split the season series of six games so far, the Rangers have scored 28 goals and allowed just 16. The Rangers are rolling out Igor Shesterkin, and prior to Tuesday’s poor showing, he sported a 7-2-2 record with a .928 save percentage and 2.25 GAA through his previous 11 starts. It’s not surprising to see the Rangers notable favorites.
Philadelphia has the on-paper talent to be a formidable offense, but the Flyers have also struggled in that department with just 2.41 goals per game during the previously noted stretch. Tuesday’s blowout loss to the Islanders was also an outlier for the Rangers, as they’ve allowed a tidy 2.65 goals per game and boast the fourth best penalty-kill percentage in the league. Circling back, with New York’s top-ranked offense since March 1, it’s definitely a spot to look at Rangers in DFS. The top two lines of Mika Zibanejad/Chris Kreider/Pavel Buchnevich and Ryan Strome/Artemi Panarin/Colin Blackwell are potential stacks. Power-play quarterback Adam Fox is also a strong option.
Stars at Red Wings preview
(Line: Stars -215)
Dallas has won four straight to pull within two points of fourth place in the Central Division, and the Stars also have three games in hand on the fourth-place Predators. This projects to be a favorable matchup to make it five wins in a row, too. Detroit has lost three consecutive games and five of six to Dallas this season. The Red Wings also have scored the second fewest goals per game in the league, which sets up nicely for the Stars’ starting netminder Anton Khudobin. He’s rolling along a rock-solid 5-1-5 stretch with a .921 save percentage and 1.94 GAA, and the Stars have surrendered the fifth-fewest goals per game in the league. It’s safe to view the Red Wings as risky DFS starts.
Turning to Dallas, everything starts with Roope Hintz. He’s been battling a lower-body injury for over a month and didn’t play Tuesday. However, if he’s in the lineup, he’s a target to consider. He’s riding a six-game point streak consisting of three tallies and 10 helpers and is up to a fifth-ranked 3.82 points per 60 minutes for the campaign. Hintz has also displayed excellent chemistry with Jason Robertson, and Robertson has recorded 3.2 points per 60 minutes, which is good for 20th in the league. It’s also worth noting if Miro Heiskanen (lower body) sits out, John Klingberg’s value likely receives a slight boost.
Avalanche at Blues preview
(Line: Avalanche -159)
This is a bit of a tough game to handicap with Colorado being off the past week because of COVID-19 protocols. There hasn’t been a consistent trend for teams returning to action following extended layoffs. St. Louis has also been off since Saturday, so the Blues are in a somewhat similar situation. There are lineup questions for Colorado, which is actually nothing new. Mikko Rantanen (COVID-19) has already been ruled out for the Avs; Valeri Nichushkin is expected to skate in his place on the No. 1 line with Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. Nichushkin could thrive with the promotion.
For the Blues, the lineup is as close to full health as it's been all year. Jordan Kyrou and Vince Dunn are both expected to play, and the Blues need to put on a push because their 5-10-4 active record has dropped them to fifth seed in the West. They’ve got games in hand to climb back into fourth place, but that means they also need to win. St. Louis has only scored 2.37 goals per game during the noted stretch, and Colorado has allowed the third fewest per game in the league, so it’s probably not an ideal spot to load up the Blues. Additionally, with that in mind, veteran netminder Devan Dubnyk is positioned to win his second consecutive start since joining the Avalanche. He’s worth considering in DFS.
Senators at Canucks preview
(Line: Canucks -139)
The Canucks turned in two statement wins over Toronto after missing nearly three months of action, so it will be interesting to see whether it’s a building block sweep or they struggle Thursday in a potential letdown spot. After all, the Senators continue to play competitive hockey and have won three of their past four games. Rookie center Josh Norris and winger Brady Tkachuk have racked up five goals and seven assists during the stretch, whereas Connor Brown, Drake Batherson and Thomas Chabot all have three points or more. The offense is coming alive for the Senators, and No. 1 netminder Matt Murray is 2-1 with a .942 save percentage since returning from his own lengthy absence.
Vancouver is still favored Thursday, though, and the Senators do rank last in the North Division. The Canucks received notable offensive performances from Bo Horvat, Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser and Nils Hoglander during the mini-series against the Maple Leafs. Veterans J.T. Miller, Tanner Pearson and Brandon Sutter also all registered two points through the two games. Plus, even with their noted recent success, the Senators have still allowed the most goals per game in the league. Turning to a rolling Braden Holtby could also be an against-the-grain start. He’s stopped 74 of 79 shots against Toronto in the miniseries. If Thatcher Demko receives the start, he’s also a strong lean.
