NFL Week 9 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
There are eight games in the NHL Tuesday, but only the seven games beginning at 7 p.m. ET are included in the featured contests at most DFS sites (the Bruins and Sabres drop the puck at 6:30 p.m.). There are four huge favorites on the docket: Toronto, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Florida. The Lightning, Islanders and Kings are also all shorter home favorites. It’s worth noting that there isn’t a single game with a 6.5 over/under total, and a number of matchups have a history of the two teams playing low-scoring contests against one another.
Here’s a game-by-game preview to set the stage for Tuesday’s action.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Rangers at Islanders preview
(Line: Islanders -127)
The Rangers are coming off a four-game sweep of the Devils in which they scored 18 times while only allowing six goals. They’re still just four points out of fourth place in the competitive East Division. The Islanders have plateaued meanwhile with an 8-7 active record and minus-2 goal differential. It’s also worth noting that this will be the sixth meeting between the two teams, and the Isles won three of the five and there were only 21 total goals between the two clubs. Considering the Islanders and Rangers have respectively surrendered the second and seventh-fewest goals per game in the league this season, it wouldn’t be surprising if Tuesday’s showdown was another low-scoring affair.
It’s definitely worth noting that the Blueshirts have been a much more consistent offensive team over the past two months than the Islanders, though. Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Strome, Adam Fox and Pavel Buchnevich have all scored at above a point-per-game pace since the beginning of March, and no team has scored more goals than the Rangers during the stretch. With just a single goal each through six games since joining the Islanders, Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac haven’t provided the offensive boost the Islanders were hoping for. This could prove to be a sneaky good matchup for New York starter Igor Shesterkin, as he’s gone 7-2-2 with a .929 save percentage and 2.24 GAA through 12 appearances since returning from injury.
Hurricanes at Lightning preview
(Line: Lightning -118)
Even with Monday’s 3-2 overtime loss to Tampa Bay, the Hurricanes remain atop the Central Division, and they have games in hand. The Lightning drove five-on-five possession with a 55.8 Corsi For percentage and generated nine more high-danger scoring chances. It’s rare for Carolina to be on the short end of both those statistics. It’s definitely worth highlighting that there have only been 30 total goals through the first seven meetings between these two teams, and the Lightning have now won four of the seven games. This is their final matchup of the season. It’s interesting that Tampa Bay is a short home favorite considering the goaltending matchup probably favors Carolina. Veteran backup Curtis McElhinney is 3-5-1 with an .862 save percentage and 3.48 GAA this season, whereas James Reimer is 14-5-1, and Alex Nedeljkovic is 10-4-3.
Interestingly, it was the Yanni Gourde–Barclay Goodrow–Blake Coleman line that was the most dangerous Monday, as the trio attempted 17 five-on-five shots and generated six high-danger scoring chances. For Carolina, the lines were in the blender after the No. 1 combo of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Jesper Fast. Defensemen Victor Hedman and Dougie Hamilton have been key offensive contributors to their respective teams all season and respectively rank sixth and seventh in points per 60 minutes among regular defensemen this year. Still, with the two teams playing close and low-scoring games for most of the season, this probably isn’t the most favorable setup for DFS purposes.
Blue Jackets at Panthers preview
(Line: Panthers -220)
With Monday’s 4-2 loss, the Blue Jackets dropped to an active 2-11-2 stretch and are now in last place in the Central Division. Columbus has also now surrendered the sixth most goals per game in the league and at least four in each of its past six losses. Additionally, goaltending remains a weakness with the fourth worst five-on-five team save percentage in the league. Florida has been just the opposite and continues to churn along and avoid any lengthy struggles despite injuries and an on-paper lineup that probably isn’t on par with the best teams in the division. As a result, projected starter Spencer Knight is a strong fantasy lean Tuesday — even if it's his NHL debut. Knight’s proven everything he can outside the NHL.
Offensively, it’s difficult to turn to any Blue Jackets with confidence. Jack Roslovic, Cam Atkinson and Oliver Bjorkstrand continue to be the club’s most consistent scorers, and they’ve been skating together at five-on-five of late. However, the trio has still combined for a modest 11 goals and 14 assists through the past 15 games. Florida has some interesting pieces to look at, though. Sam Bennett scored and had three individual high-danger scoring chances skating with Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Duclair on Monday, whereas the new-look No. 1 line of Aleksander Barkov, Mason Marchment and Nikita Gusev attempted 17 five-on-five shots. Those value hunting have DFS options from either of those lines.
Devils at Penguins preview
(Line: Penguins -265)
This is the first of three consecutive games between the Penguins and Devils, and Pittsburgh has won three of the first four meetings. New Jersey also enters the mini-series with an active 1-8-2 record and has surrendered 4.36 goals per game during the skid. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, continues to challenge for top spot in the East Division and has won nine of its past 13 games with a plus-15 goal differential. Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Kris Letang have led the way offensively for the Pens during the noted stretch, and Jared McCann has also been a sneaky contributor with seven goals and six assists.
There’s not a lot to say about the New Jersey offense. Leading scorers Jesper Bratt and Pavel Zacha are both questionable for Tuesday’s game with undisclosed injuries, and the Penguins have held the Devils to just 12 goals through five games this season. It’s another favorable goaltending spot for Tristan Jarry, and he’s rolled off an impressive 16-4-2 record, .923 save percentage and 2.39 GAA through his past 23 appearances. If Casey DeSmith starts, he’s a riskier option with a single win through his past four starts and 17 goals against.
Red Wings at Stars preview
(Line: Stars -265)
Despite attempting 25 more five-on-five shot attempts and eight more high-danger scoring chances it took a shootout for the Stars to top Detroit 3-2 Monday. The Stars received a dominant performance from Roope Hintz. He finished with a goal, an assist and 10 shot attempts while driving five-on-five possession with a 78.6 Corsi For percentage. The 24-year-old Finn is in the midst of a monster breakout campaign with 14 tallies and 23 helpers through just 32 contests, and his 3.82 points per 60 minutes rank sixth in the league. It’s been a pretty quiet breakout, too. Hintz is also clicking with fellow youngster Jason Robertson, and the duo has combined for 5.33 goals and 14.35 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes while driving five-on-five possession with a 57.6 Corsi For percentage. It’s an attractive mini stack with Detroit allowing 3.11 goals per game and sporting the 25th-ranked penalty-kill percentage in the league.
It’s also a favorable goaltending matchup for Jake Oettinger, as Detroit has scored the fewest goals per game in the league. The rookie netminder has allowed two goals or fewer in four of his past five starts en route to a 3-2 record, .946 save percentage and 1.62 GAA. There’s a good chance he’s a popular target, though. The Stars have surrendered the fewest goals and second-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league this season, after all.
Maple Leafs at Canucks preview
(Line: Maple Leafs -305)
The Canucks had a Cinderella return Sunday with a comeback win over the Maple Leafs in overtime. Toronto blew a two-goal lead and has now lost four consecutive games, and Jack Campbell has allowed 14 goals with an .837 save percentage through his past four starts, as the wheels appear to be coming off after his own storybook start to the campaign. Toronto is also looking thin on the wings Tuesday with Nick Foligno still in quarantine, Zach Hyman (lower body) out for the immediate future, Ilya Mikheyev (undisclosed) unable to practice Monday, and William Nylander potentially watching from the press box after being late for a team meeting Monday. Expect Nick Robertson to have another extended look in an offensive role, and the youngster attempted five shots in Sunday’s loss. He could prove to be a value in DFS contests.
Offensively for the Maple Leafs, Auston Matthews has 18 points through his past 12 outings, John Tavares has 12 through his past eight, and Mitchell Marner continues to cruise above a point-per-game pace. For the Canucks, Braden Holtby was fantastic while turning away 37 shots during Sunday’s win, and he’ll probably need another huge showing because Toronto attempted 37 more shots and generated 16 more high-danger scoring chances than Vancouver on Sunday. Bo Horvat was Vancouver’s best player Sunday with two goals and an assist, but considering how caved in the Canucks were, it’s hard to recommend them in DFS.
Ducks at Kings preview
(Line: Kings -159)
Amazingly, this will be just the fourth meeting between these two teams this season, and the Ducks have won two of the first three. Most nights, neither team would offer much fantasy upside, but there could be sneaky potential here. After all, there’s going to be a winning goalie, and there are values to consider from both clubs. Los Angeles has solid special teams with a 13th-ranked power-play percentage and fourth-ranked penalty-kill percentage, so there’s an obvious advantage there. The Ducks have scored the second-fewest goals per game in the league and have the worst power-play percentage, so there’s an immediate mini lean toward the Kings. In particular, Los Angeles’ starting goaltender.
Still, there are some intriguing young pieces for the Ducks. Maxime Comtois, Troy Terry, Sam Steele and Jamie Drysdale have all flashed signs and receive power-play looks, whereas Rickard Rakell, Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg, Cam Fowler and Kevin Shattenkirk have more proven track records. On the flip side, this could be an opportunity for a Drew Doughty rebound showing. The veteran has missed the scoresheet in 10 of his past 13 games after racking up a rock-solid 25 points — seven goals — through the first 27 contests of the campaign. Just keep in mind that there’s also a strong likelihood this game is low scoring, so too much DFS exposure is risky.
