Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a busy nine-game DFS slate in the NHL Thursday, and there are a couple notable mismatches on the docket to target for DFS purposes. While the Capitals and Rangers are the largest favorites on the docket, Dallas and Carolina are also receiving noticeable chalk. It’s also worth noting the Jets are playing their second road game in consecutive nights, and the Sabres-Capitals and Flyers-Penguins games have the highest over/under total.
Here’s your game-by-game previews to set the stage for Thursday’s action.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Islanders at Bruins preview
(Line: Bruins -120)
The big news ahead of this matchup is that Tuukka Rask is expected to start after missing 17 of the past 18 games with an upper-body injury. It brings stability to the Boston crease, as Jaroslav Halak (COVID-19) is on injured reserve, and Jeremy Swayman and Daniel Vladar have started the past six games. Rask has gone 8-4-2 with a .907 save percentage and 2.40 GAA through 15 appearances this season, but he’ll likely show a little rust Thursday, and the Islanders check out as a high-end opponent with an active 17-5 record dating back to late February. It’s also worth mentioning Taylor Hall attempted seven shots in his Tuesday debut, so expect his offensive numbers to improve. Additionally, it’s also worth noting that while Charlie McAvoy returned to the lineup Tuesday, it was newly acquired Mike Reilly who quarterbacked the No. 1 power-play unit, and Reilly projects to remain in the role.
The Islanders have swept the Bruins through five meetings this season and held Boston to just eight goals. Defense and goaltending have been New York’s calling card all year, though. The Isles have surrendered the second-fewest goals per game, the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five and boast the second-best team save percentage. The offense has been a little inconsistent, and Mathew Barzal is the only Islander flirting with a point-per-game pace with 37 points through 42 contests. Kyle Palmieri scored his first goal with the club Sunday, but he’s averaged just 14:19 of ice time through three outings with New York, so his fantasy ceiling is relatively low in the reduced role.
Devils at Rangers preview
(Line: Rangers -210)
The Rangers beat New Jersey 3-0 Tuesday, and the Devils have now lost seven of eight games, while the Rangers are still battling for a playoff position and currently sit in eighth place. The Devils have also allowed three goals or more in 10 of their past 12 games and the stretch has them now allowing the seventh most per game in the league. New York’s offense has found its footing since Artemi Panarin returned with 4.25 goals per game and a 10-4-2 record. Additionally, Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox, Ryan Strome and Pavel Buchnevich have all recorded above a point per game during the noted stretch. It’s definitely worth adding that New Jersey has the worst penalty-kill percentage in the league, too.
It’s also a plus-matchup for New York’s goaltenders. New Jersey has scored the fifth-fewest goals per game and has the third-worst penalty-kill percentage in the league. Rangers’ No. 1 Igor Shesterkin’s shutout Tuesday improved him to 5-2-2 with a .927 save percentage and 2.41 GAA through nine starts since returning from injury, and he has .924 and 2.35 ratios through 24 games for the campaign. It’s also worth noting New York has solid team defense with just 2.62 goals against per game (ninth fewest) and the fourth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league.
Sabres at Capitals preview
(Line: Capitals -345)
Another mismatch in the East Division, the top-ranked Capitals have gone 6-0-1 against the basement-dwelling Sabres this season and scored 4.0 goals per game. Washington has also won three straight and totaled 18 tallies in the process. The offense is clicking, and the addition of Anthony Mantha was an instant success, as the 26-year-old winger scored, collected an assist and registered six shots in his Washington debut. It’s an impressive top-six group, too. The Evgeny Kuznetsov–Alex Ovechkin–Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom-Mantha-T.J. Oshie trios will be daunting matchups for Buffalo.
So, with the Sabres checking out as one of the most favorable opponents on all fronts, expect Capitals to be popular DFS targets Thursday. Buffalo has allowed the third most and scored the third fewest goals per game, and its 77.8 penalty-kill percentage shouldn’t scare anyone. Washington power-play quarterback John Carlson is coming off a multi-point showing and is up to nine points through his past nine games, so he’s a high-salary DFS target. While there have been highs and lows for both netminders Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek, it’s a solid matchup to turn to the Washington starter in the noted favorable matchup.
Predators at Hurricanes preview
(Line: Hurricanes -180)
The top of the Central Division is deadlocked with Carolina, Florida and Tampa Bay all tied for first place with 58 points, and Nashville’s recent surge has them alone in fourth place and four points clear of the Blackhawks. The Predators are cruising along a 13-3 run with an impressive plus-22 goal differential. However, the Hurricanes have topped the Preds in all four meetings this season with 16 goals for and just seven against. Additionally, the Hurricanes are coming off consecutive losses to the lowly Red Wings, so it would be shocking if this wasn’t a strong showing from Carolina. It’s also worth highlighting the special-teams disadvantage in this matchup. The Preds have the fourth-worst penalty-kill percentage in the league, whereas Carolina boasts the league’s top power-play percentage.
During Nashville’s noted surge, Juuse Saros has posted elite numbers with a 10-2 record, .958 save percentage and 1.32 GAA. However, offensively, the Preds haven’t had a go-to scorer. Eeli Tolvanen, Roman Josi, Viktor Arvidsson and Calle Jarnkork have all been solid contributors, but it’s probably not a spot to consider a stack Thursday. For the ‘Canes, the offense is coming from Dougie Hamilton, Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas and Vincent Trocheck. It’s also worth noting that Andrei Svechnikov has only scored twice through his past 18 games and has an unsustainably low 4.3 shooting percentage during the run. However, even with the noted favorable power-play spot for the Hurricanes, there are likely better matchups to target Thursday given how stingy Saros and the Preds have been of late.
Panthers at Lightning preview
(Line: Lightning -162)
As noted, the Panthers and Lightning are tied for first place in the Central Division, but neither club enters in particularly strong form. Florida lost three straight before topping Dallas in overtime on Tuesday, and Tampa Bay enters on a 4-6 stretch. The two clubs have each won two of the four meetings this season with the Lightning have a slight 17-15 edge in the four-game total score. One important consideration to keep in mind with Tampa is Steven Stamkos’ healthy, as he’s missed the past two games with a lower-body injury. His absence leaves the offensive attack a little lacking with Nikita Kicherov (hip) also out until the playoffs.
The Panthers have their own notable injury issues with Aaron Ekblad (lower body) out for the year, and Carter Verhaeghe out week-to-week with an upper-body injury. Florida did address depth ahead of the trade deadline with the additions of Sam Bennett, Nikita Gusev and Lucas Wallmark up front and Brandon Mountour on the blue line. However, with so many personnel changes, projecting Florida’s line combinations ahead of the pregame skate is tricky. Still, it’s worth mentioning that Aleksander Barkov centered Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Duclair Tuesday, which checks out as a formidable No. 1 line.
Flyers at Penguins preview
(Line: Penguins -165)
This will be the sixth meeting of the campaign between the state rivals, and Philadelphia has taken three of five thus far. However, the two clubs couldn’t be trending in more opposite directions with Pittsburgh rolling along a 15-4-1 stretch, and Philadelphia entering with an 8-13-3 record. Furthermore, the Flyers have been a defensive mess with the second most goals allowed per game and the second worst penalty-kill percentage in the league, so Pittsburgh’s top scorers are definitely positioned to succeed. After all, Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust have combined for 19 goals and 30 assists through the past 12 games to climb to an elite 5.68 goals per 60 minutes for the campaign, and No. 1 defenseman Kris Letang also has 12 points during the stretch.
With all that in mind, it would be surprising if Philadelphia didn’t raise its game for the rivalry matchup. After all, it isn’t even a stretch to suggest the Flyers have the more balanced lineup. Goaltending is probably where the largest mismatch lies, as Pittsburgh starter Tristan Jarry enters with an 8-1-1 record, .924 save percentage and 2.38 GAA through his past 11 appearances, whereas the Flyers have the worst team save percentage at five-on-five in the league. If looking to target some Philadelphia skaters in DFS, Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny and Ivan Provorov projects as the top candidates, and it’s also worth noting that offensively minded defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere has been receiving consistent power-play time of late.
Jets at Maple Leafs preview
(Line: Maple Leafs -150)
Winnipeg visits Toronto for its second game in consecutive nights after topping Ottawa 3-2 on Wednesday. While it projects to be a potentially tough schedule spot for the Jets, Toronto will be without Rocket Richard leader Auston Matthews (wrist). It’s a huge blow to the Maple Leafs, but Toronto has also won all three games Matthews has missed this season. Toronto has also won four of six meetings against the Jets this season while allowing just 16 total goals. It might take another strong defensive effort for Toronto to win Thursday, but it’s in play with the Maple Leafs allowing the fifth-fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and seventh fewest per game. Netminder Jack Campbell is also 11-1 with a .930 save percentage and 1.98 GAA for the campaign.
Turning to the Jets, they’ll also start a rolling netminder. Connor Hellebuyck posted a 7-1-1, .950 and 1.44 line before losing to Ottawa on Monday, and he should have a solid showing Thursday with Matthews and William Nylander (COVID-19) out of the lineup for the Maple Leafs. Offensively, Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor continue to lead the way. However, they project to remain split up at five-on-five with Blake Wheeler (concussion) out of the lineup. It’s been Andrew Copp with Scheifele and Connor, and Ehlers skating with Pierre-Luc Dubios and Paul Stastny — still a solid top-six group. There’s potential for Toronto to have trouble matching up against the Jets’ firepower. The Maple Leafs have also lost consecutive games, and this could be an upset opportunity for Winnipeg.
Blackhawks at Red Wings preview
(Line: Blackhawks -165)
It’s now-or-never time for the Blackhawks if they are going to land a postseason berth. They’re four points behind the Predators but do have a game in hand. Chicago is also coming off a two-game sweep of the Blue Jackets and have capitalized on its opportunities against Detroit this year with wins in five of their six previous meetings with a plus-13 goal differential. Superstar Patrick Kane might also be on the verge of heating up with a goal and four assists through his past four games, and there’s also positive regression ahead of his 4.5 shooting percentage through the past 20 contests. Detroit’s 76.2 penalty-kill percentage ranks 25th in the league, and the Red Wings have also surrendered the eighth most goals per game for the campaign.
It’s definitely important to highlight the improved play of the Red Wings over the past two weeks, as Detroit boasts a competitive 5-3-2 record, which includes consecutive wins over Hurricanes. Still, while Chicago checks out as a favorable opponent with the third worst penalty-kill percentage in the league and a healthy 3.09 goals against per game, it’s hard to find reliable Red Wings scorers. During the noted 10-game stretch, Adam Erne is the leading scorer with six tallies and a 27.3 shooting percentage, so it’s probably best to view Detroit’s skaters as nothing more than contrarian options. With that in mind, Chicago netminder Kevin Lankinen is 4-0 with a .962 save percentage against Detroit this year.
Blue Jackets at Stars preview
(Line: Stars -180)
Columbus enters with a 2-8-2 active record and scored just 26 goals while allowing 42. Dallas hasn’t been much better with a 4-2-2 active stretch, but the Stars are notable favorites for good reason. Plus, the Stars still have a puncher’s chance of making the playoffs, as they’re seven games behind the fourth-place Predators with three games in hand. Dallas remains one of the best defensive teams in the league with the fewest goals against and third fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes allowed at five-on-five this season. Additionally, the Stars have been a superior possession team with the 10th-ranked Corsi For percentage compared to Columbus’ third worst mark.
Jake Oettinger is the confirmed starter for the Stars, so with the favorable matchup, he’s a solid DFS target. The rookie has turned in a respectable 6-5-6 record with a .917 save percentage and 2.29 GAA. Up front, Roope Hintz is expected to play. The 24-year-old forward has been nursing a lower-body injury for weeks and missed his 12th game of the season Tuesday. When in the lineup, Hintz has been excellent with 32 points through 29 games, and he’s been particularly effective when skating with Jason Robertson. The duo has combined for six goals and 13 high-danger scoring chances through just 36:42 of shared ice time. Veteran Joe Pavelski is projected to also play with Hintz and Robertson, and they’re a potential stack, and one that might also fly under the radar.
