Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a busy nine-game DFS slate in the NHL Wednesday with the Lightning, Rangers and Panthers all huge favorites. Montreal, Vegas and Carolina are also receiving notable chalk. The Sabres, Wild and Golden Knights are all playing the second leg of back-to-back sets, and interestingly, there isn’t a single 6.5 over/under total on the docket.
Here’s a quick-hit preview to set the stage for your DFS lineups.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Penguins at Bruins preview
(Line: Bruins -124)
The Penguins are coming off an impressive two-game sweep of the Islanders to climb within two points of the East Division lead. The victories improved them to an active 11-3-1 record, and they’ve gone 5-1-1 since Evgeni Malkin (lower body) has been sidelined. While it helps that Jason Zucker returned Monday, and Brandon Tanev (upper body) is expected back Thursday, Kasperi Kapanen (lower body) is also on injured reserve. Potentially most concerning, though, Tristan Jarry (upper body) didn’t skate during Wednesday’s practice and is considered day-to-day. At some point, Pittsburgh’s questionable depth is going to be tested, but as long as the top line continues to churn along, the Penguins are a formidable opponent. After all, Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel have clicked for a rock-solid 5.25 goals per 60 minutes.
Boston has struggled to gain any traction over the past month and a half with an underwhelming 8-8-3 record and just 47 goals (2.47 per game). Defense remains the Bruins strength, as they’ve allowed the fourth fewest goals per game for the campaign and boast a league-high 89.5 penalty-kill percentage. No. 1 netminder Tuukka Rask is still nursing an upper-body injury, and has only played a single period through the past nine games. Similar to their Thursday opponent, the Bruins need Rask healthy to take the next step, and they also rely heavily on their No. 1 line. Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand have scored 42% of Boston’s goals this season, after all.
Rangers at Sabres preview
(Line: Rangers -275)
The Sabres finally snapped their lengthy losing streak with an impressive 6-1 win over the Flyers Wednesday. It does set Buffalo up for a tough schedule spot Thursday, though. It’s a back-to-back set and the third game in four nights for the Sabres, whereas the Rangers last game was Tuesday’s 5-2 win over the first-place Capitals. As if Buffalo could be more vulnerable? The Sabres have surrendered the third-most goals per game, after all.
The Rangers have been dangerous offensively with Ryan Strome, Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox and Pavel Buchnevich all producing at better than a point-per-game pace over the past 15 contests, and Artemi Panarin recording four goals and 10 assists through 10 games since returning from his personal leave. New York has also been sneaky defensively with just 2.66 goals against per game and a sixth-ranked 85.3 penalty-kill percentage. It’s a great matchup for New York starter Igor Shesterkin with Buffalo scoring just 2.14 goals per game — the fewest in the league. He’s also dialed in with a .938 save percentage through his past three starts.
Capitals at Islanders preview
(Line: Islanders -125)
This is a heavyweight bout with the Islanders trailing the Capitals by two points for top spot in the East Division. Even with Tuesday’s loss, Washington continues to roll along a dominant 14-3 stretch dating back to late February, and the Caps continue to score in bunches with the most five-on-five goals per 60 minutes in the league and a ninth-ranked 23.9 power-play percentage. The high-powered offense has been enough, as Washington has middling defensive and goaltending ranks. It’s definitely worth noting that Washington’s five-on-five shooting percentage and PDO both rank atop the NHL, so there could be negative regression ahead over the coming weeks.
As potent as the Capitals have been offensively, the Islanders have been defensively. New York has surrendered the fewest high-danger scoring chances and fifth-fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and have a respectable 80.4 penalty-kill percentage. Additionally, netminders Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin have combined for high-end numbers this season. Varlamov boasts a 14-7-3 record, .922 save percentage and 2.19 GAA for the campaign, and while backup Sorokin allowed four goals on nine shots in his last start, he still boasts an impressive 8-1 record, .928 save percentage and 1.75 GAA through his past nine appearances.
Blue Jackets at Lightning preview
(Line: Lightning -286)
The Blue Jackets pulled off a 3-1 road upset over the Lightning Tuesday despite allowing 25 more shot attempts. It was a sterling showing from Elvis Merzlikins, as the Latvian netminder stopped 37 of 38 shots, whereas Tampa Bay backup Curtis McElhinney allowed two tallies on 20 shots. Considering it was Tampa Bay’s third consecutive loss, expect a strong showing from the Lightning Thursday, and especially from No. 1 starter Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy has lost consecutive starts and allowed four goals in each, so Columbus’ underwhelming offensive attack sets up favorable for the Russian to have a bounce-back showing. The Blue Jackets have scored just 2.09 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and have a 26th-ranked 14.9 power-play percentage.
This should also be a favorable matchup for the Tampa Bay offense. Columbus has surrendered the eighth most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and sports a 23rd-ranked 76.2 penalty-kill percentage. Anthony Cirelli, Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn attempted 18 shots during Tuesday’s loss and could be worth considering as a potential stack. However, the new-look, Brayden Point–Ondrej Palat–Yanni Gourde trio is also worth a long look and likely has the higher ceiling. Finally, with Tampa Bay’s blueline corps banged up and missing multiple regulars, Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev will be tasked with big minutes, so they’re both strong leans.
Red Wings at Panthers preview
(Line: Panthers -250)
The Panthers handedly took care of Detroit 4-1 Tuesday, and Thursday’s odds project for more of the same. It will still be important to check in on Aleksander Barkov’s (lower body) status, as he’s expected to return this week, but Florida can probably handle the pedestrian Red Wings without its No. 1 center. Detroit has scored the second fewest goals per game, allowed the sixth most and its special-teams ranks are also in the basement with a 29th-ranked power-play and penalty-kill percentages. With that in mind, Sergei Bobrovsky projects as a solid option in nets again. He’s rolling along a 9-4-1 stretch with a .918 save percentage and 2.56 GAA.
Offensively, Carter Verhaeghe scored twice Tuesday and is up to a rock-solid 1.63 goals per 60 minutes, which ranks 11th in the league among NHL regulars. Jonathan Huberdeau has also been a consistent force with a sixth-ranked 3.8 points per 60. Still, even with the plus-matchup, it’s probably wise to limit your exposure to the Panthers and target standalone options over stacks. The lineup is depleted, and it’s a deep player pool. Those looking for a contrarian stack could consider the Dylan Larkin–Robby Fabbri–Filip Zadina line, as they’ve combined for 17.72 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes and an unsustainably low 4.9 shooting percentage.
Canadiens at Senators
(Line: Canadiens -190)
Montreal is coming off an impressive 4-0 win over Edmonton after a 10-day layoff due to COVID-19 protocols Tuesday. Interestingly, Ottawa has also been off since last Thursday, so both teams should be well rested. This will be the sixth meeting between the two teams, and Ottawa has won three of five with there being just 26 total goals in the series. Another low-scoring affair wouldn’t be overly shocking, but it’s still important to note how poor Ottawa has been defensively. The Senators have surrendered the most goals per game in the league and have a 22nd-ranked 76.4 penalty-kill percentage.
Montreal has been sound defensively for the most part this year, and especially at five-on-five with the fewest goals against the sixth fewest high-danger scoring chances allowed. No. 1 netminder Carey Price appears to be rounding into top form, too. He’s only lost in regulation once through his past nine starts and posted an impressive .931 save percentage and 1.87 GAA during the stretch. Considering Ottawa has scored just 2,56 goals per game — eighth fewest in the league — Price is probably a worthwhile DFS option. It’s definitely worth noting the Canadiens will be without Tyler Toffoli (lower body) Thursday, which is a notable loss.
Hurricanes at Blackhawks preview
(Line: Hurricanes -162)
Chicago upset Carolina 2-1 on Tuesday despite the Hurricanes attempting 25 more five-on-five shots and generating eight more high-danger scoring chances. In fact, the Blackhawks were able to register just three high-danger chances all game. The story was Chicago netminder Kevin Lankinen’s 31-save win to improve to 13-8-4 on the campaign with a .921 save percentage and 2.65 GAA. The 25-year-old Finn projects to be busy again with Carolina attempting the fifth-most shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league. Although Lankinen’s numbers stand out, game-to-game consistency isn’t a strength, and he’s allowed three or more goals in five of the past 10 games.
Carolina received a huge boost with Vincent Trocheck’s return to the lineup Tuesday, and both the Trocheck-Andrei Svechnikov–Jesper Fast and Sebastian Aho–Martin Necas–Nino Niederreiter lines were dominated five-on-five possession with identical 76.9 Corsi For percentages. The Hurricanes depth projects to be a problem for Chicago again Thursday, and Aho-Necas or Trocheck-Svechnikov mini-stacks are definitely in play. For Chicago, Mr. Consistency Patrick Kane picked up an assist Tuesday to extend his point streak to five games, and he’s up to 13 tallies, 36 helpers and 14 multi-point showings.
Stars at Predators preview
(Line: Stars -125)
The Predators are up to a six-game winning streak after topping Dallas 3-2 in overtime on Tuesday, and Nashville has also now won eight of its past nine games to climb back into the playoff picture. Nashville has only allowed 10 five-on-five goals during the stretch with an impressive .959 team save percentage. Juuse Saros has been in net for six of the starts and allowed just six goals with a .971 save percentage, so while he’s obviously been fantastic, statistical correction is ahead. Offensively, Eeli Tolvanen has been leading the way with a six-game point streak consisting of three tallies and six helpers.
Turning to the Stars, they’ve amazingly failed to win back-to-back games dating all the way back to Jan. 30 and sport a discouraging 7-12-10 record during the skid. Dallas plays strong five-on-five defense with the third fewest goals against and second fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. However, the Stars also score the third fewest five-on-five goals per 60 minutes, so there’s potential for Saros to have another solid start for the Preds. Just keep in mind that Nashville does sport the worst penalty-kill percentage in the league, and Dallas has 10 power-play goals against the Preds through five games.
Wild at Golden Knights preview
(Line: Golden Knights -175)
Another tape-measuring matchup in the West Division, the Wild are trying to prove themselves equals to the Golden Knights and Avalanche as legitimate division contenders. However, Minnesota just dropped consecutive games to the Sharks to fall six points out of first place. Vegas is also coming off a loss but remains one of the best teams in the league and boasts an incredible 14-3-1 record on home ice. The two teams have split the season series with two wins a piece, but the Golden Knights are the superior statistical team in most notable categories.
Even with the consecutive losses, the Wild are cruising along an 15-5-2 stretch. However, it’s probably realistic to suggest they’ve punched above their weight class and it’s unlikely they’ll continue rolling off wins at the rate they have over the past month-plus. The Golden Knights, on the other hand, are legit and received a huge boost with Alex Pietrangelo returning to the lineup Wednesday. He registered seven shots and paced the club in ice time. With this the second leg of a back-to-back set, look for Robin Lehner to handle the starting duties, and he’s won his past three starts with a .939 save percentage, so there’s upside there.
