NHL DFS showdown strategy and core plays for July 7

The puck drops on Game 5 of the Stanley Cup finals tonight as the series shifts from Montreal to Tampa Bay. The Lightning can close it out with a win which would give them their Stanley Cups in the last 10 months. Montreal was able to extend the series with a 3-2 OT win in Game 4 and they’ll be looking to hand the Bolts their second straight loss in the playoffs for the first time since 2019. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. ET.

Below you’ll see a list of options to play in the NHL Showdown. I’ve listed a few different captain options as well as a few value plays.

If you’re looking for a larger breakdown check out today’s episode of Fantasy Hockey Picks & Bets.

Captain options

Nikita Kucherov, W, Tampa Bay Lightning

Kucherov leads the series in shot attempts (29), shots (15), goals (3), points (5), high danger chances (6) and scoring chances (19). Kucherov not only leads the playoffs in points, he has more assists than any other player has points. He can smell the Conn Smythe and I truly believe it as he’s been much more aggressive shooting the puck. Ten of his 15 shots on goal in the series have come over his last two games. He had 10 attempts in Game 4 and five were considered scoring chances. He pretty much plays the entire power play and it runs through him. Kucherov benefits from being at home with the Lightning having last change, so his 5v5 game should be better tonight.

Carey Price, G, Montreal Canadiens

The Habs look toast despite the 3-2 OT win on Monday. They’ve looked very tired throughout this series and Carey Price hasn’t looked his best. It’s hard to fault him as the Lightning have scored 11 goals off turnovers. He’s coming off his best game of the series, though, as he turned aside 32 of their 34 shots en route to 21.4 DK points. Price had 0.8 points combined in his first three games. TB has started strong in each of the four games and I don’t think that changes in Game 5. Price should see a lot of rubber and if the Habs pull it off it’s likely because the Canadiens’ netminder had a fantastic showing, like we’ve seen so many times in elimination games (4-0 in these playoffs).

Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Tampa Bay Lightning

Vasilevskiy is always worth consideration and although he may be the safest player at the captain spot, he’s not my favorite choice. The win is very likely. as TB checks in as -230 favorites and hasn’t lost back-to-back games in the playoffs in two years. Vasilevskiy had a shutout in Game 5 and Game 7 in Tampa Bay against the Islanders in Round 3. He’s 2-0 at home in this series with just two goals against. If you’re playing multiple lineups he’s hard to ignore. Not only is a win likely, but a shutout is also possible. Keep in mind the Canadiens have been held to 21 shots or fewer in three of the four games. I don’t think he’ll see a lot of rubber so I don’t think his ceiling is as high as others. If he lets in a goal or two he may not return value. 15-18 DK points are what I’m projecting.

Others to consider: Victor Hedman, Nicholas Suzuki

Other plays

Ondrej Palat, W, Tampa Bay Lightning

Palat saw his point streak snapped in Game 4, but he enters tonight’s game with a goal, four points and three primary assists. He’s second on the team in shot attempts (14) and shots (9). He’s seen his ice time increase with each game, and PP time is expected again with Alex Kilorn sidelined. Palat has at least two shots in each of the four games against the Habs.

Blake Coleman, W, Tampa Bay Lightning

Coleman checks in again for me, and he’ll be in most of my lineups tonight. He has two goals, four points and a team-high 1.97 ixG. He also leads in expected goals at 5v5 (1.16) and his six high danger scoring chances are tied for the series-high with Kucherov and Tyler Johnson. In Game 4, Coleman led all TB forwards in high danger chances (3), scoring chances (6), shots (5) and expected goals (0.79) at 5v5.

Josh Anderson, W, Montreal Canadiens

Anderson moved on to a line with Nicholas Suzuki and Cole Caufield and produced two goals. He scored the opening goal for the Habs and the winner in overtime. Anderson put three pucks on net and has racked up 10 shots in four games, which ranks second to Suzuki’s 13. Anderson looked strong in the first couple of games of the series, so good on the coaching staff to reward him and it paid off. His 1.09 ixG leads all Montreal players and his 11 scoring chances are one behind Suzuki.

Yanni Gourde, C, Tampa Bay Lightning

I feel like a broken record when it comes to Gourde, Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. I like all three and the line has been an X-factor in the series. Gourde hasn’t been hitting the score sheet but his line starts every period and they have a lot of energy each night. Gourde has 12 attempts, five shots, three high danger chances and one goal at 5v5. He leads all Lightning forwards in ice time at 5v5 and in all strengths. His line has been more noticeable than Anthony Cirelli’s.

Tyler Johnson, W, Tampa Bay Lightning

Johnson extended his point streak to three games, as he picked up an assist in Game 4. He’s been very noticeable in Killorn’s absence even though he resumed his role on the fourth line. TJ has two goals, four points and seven shots in his past three games.

Shea Weber, D, Montreal

Weber has 27 shot attempts (two behind Kucherov) and his 12 shots are one behind Suzuki for the team lead. He has two points in the series and at least five shots on goal in two of his four games. Not only that, he plays so much that he kind of just falls into blocks (eight in his last two games).

Others to consider: Victor Hedman, Nicholas Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Corey Perry, Jake Evans (punt), Barclay Goodrow, Jan Rutta (strong punt)