Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gus EdwardsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cardinals vs. Ravens
Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-125) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- An extreme running game script is suggested by the Ravens being a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to run on 48.2% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- The projections expect Gus Edwards to accumulate 13.2 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Out of all RBs, Gus Edwards ranks in the 75th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 35.6% of the workload in his offense’s rushing attack.
- This year, the anemic Cardinals run defense has yielded a colossal 135.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 8th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens offensive strategy to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
- At the moment, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Ravens.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
- Gus Edwards’s 4.0 adjusted yards per carry this year marks an impressive decrease in his rushing prowess over last year’s 4.8 mark.
- Gus Edwards’s 2.57 yards-after-contact this season marks a significant diminishment in his rushing ability over last season’s 3.64 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
