MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Tee HigginsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Browns vs. Bengals
Right now, Tee Higgins’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 75.5 (-115) after it opened @ 76.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 67.3% pass rate.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.6 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to accrue 9.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
- Tee Higgins has posted a lot more receiving yards per game (70.0) this year than he did last year (59.0).
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
- Tee Higgins has compiled far fewer air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (94.0 per game).
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Receiving Yards
85
Receiving Yards
