Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-131) after it opened @ 85.5 (-117).

Pros

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in football (67.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bills.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
This week, Stefon Diggs is anticipated by the projections to secure a spot in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.5 targets.
Stefon Diggs’s 33.2% Target Rate this season marks a noteable improvement in his pass game workload over last season’s 28.0% mark.
After accruing 104.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has been rising this season, now averaging 135.0 per game.

Cons

An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a giant 9.5-point favorite this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see just 125.9 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Stefon Diggs’s 2.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a meaningful decline in his efficiency in the open field over last year’s 4.1% rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards