Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Lions vs. Dolphins
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 255.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the OVER up to 255.5 (-106) after it opened @ 254.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.70 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to attempt 37.1 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Jared Goff has thrown for substantially more yards per game (263.0) this year than he did last year (229.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Jared Goff’s throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.2% to 63.2%.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.99 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
275
Passing Yards
275
Passing Yards
