Week 8 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

It was a profitable Week 7 for the FTN moneyline underdogs, as the Lions (+115) got to the window with a road win over previously undefeated Minnesota. Let’s stay in the black as we turn the page to Week 8. 

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 8 of the 2024 season.

Week 8 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Seattle +3 vs. Buffalo

(+145, Bet365)

It’s always nice to see our FTN NFL Betting Model providing an edge in a game I projected as a ML pick. Seattle finally saw health for some of their players and earned an impressive 34-14 road win at Atlanta. The potential absence of starting WR DK Metcalf is concerning, but the Seahawks have more than enough offensive weapons to beat the Bills as a home underdog. 

Buffalo sits at 5-2 overall but has been much more vulnerable on the road. They lost big at Baltimore, lost at Houston and beat a struggling Jets team by just three points. Josh Allen has been perfect this season, posting 12 touchdowns with no interceptions. Per FTN StatsHub, Allen has six turnover-worthy throws, but opposing defenses have not taken advantage. His 3.2% turnover-worthy throw rate is higher than Aaron Rodgers (2.3%), yet Rodgers has seven interceptions. 

On defense, the Bills can be exposed on the ground. Buffalo allows 132.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 20th overall. In their four road games, the Bills are being gashed for 156.9 rushing yards per game, third worst in the league. I expect Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet to find success on the ground, opening up quarterback Geno Smith to attack through the air with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant. If Metcalf somehow plays, it’s a bonus. But I’m backing the Seahawks regardless.

Our FTN Betting Model shows a slight 3.4% edge on the Seahawks +3, so I’m grabbing the Seahawks with a much-healthier defensive front. Look for Byron Murphy Jr., Leonard Williams and Dre’Mont Jones to pressure Allen into regression to his past turnover issues. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.45 Units