Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Tonight’s Sunday night showdown features a battle of the AFC, with the Jets back on primetime and traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in Russell Wilson’s debut. The quarterback change was somewhat surprising given the Steelers’ 4-2 record. They are tied with Baltimore for first in the AFC North, but perhaps the change is well warranted given the state of the offense. Through six weeks, Pittsburgh is top 10 in DVOA on defense (-8.2%), but bottom 10 on offense (-8.5%) and just one of eight teams averaging less than 300 yards per game (298.3, 26th). Wilson wasn’t great in his last stint in Denver, but he did have “pole position” over Justin Fields in the offseason and was designated to start Week 1 before suffering a calf injury.
He couldn’t have asked for a much worse matchup in his first start against a stout Jets secondary that is ranked 11th in DVOA against the pass (3.2%) and allowing the second-fewest passing yards (170.2) and tied for the second-fewest passing touchdowns (0.7) per game to opposing signal-callers. Per the DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against Tool, quarterbacks see a 31% decrease in production against the Jets, the third-lowest rate in the league. After a heartbreaking 23-20 loss to Buffalo, New York added some much-needed reinforcements. The Jets finally pulled the trigger and traded for Davante Adams, who had missed the last two games with Las Vegas tending to a hamstring injury. The change in scenery has led to a miraculous recovery for Adams, who has been a full participant in practice all week and is reportedly set to play a full complement snaps. It’s a must-win game for the Jets, who are now a slight favorite on the road (-2), despite their 2-4 record and currently sitting in third in the AFC East.
This season, FTN is utilizing contest simulations to analyze showdown contests. To do this, we simulate the results of the game 10,000 times while also projecting actual lineups that will be in the flagship contest based on our industry-leading projected rostership. This allows us to break down every aspect of the slate to help uncover every edge possible.
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