Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Saints vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-125) after it opened @ 63.5 (-130).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are expected by the projection model to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the most among all teams this week.
- The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a whopping 62.3 per game on average).
- In this week’s contest, Travis Etienne is projected by the projections to land in the 96th percentile among running backs with 16.8 rush attempts.
- Travis Etienne has been a much bigger part of his team’s ground game this season (66.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (51.6%).
- With a terrific rate of 73.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (92nd percentile), Travis Etienne ranks as one of the best pure runners in the league this year.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jaguars to run on 38.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- As it relates to opening holes for runners (and the ramifications it has on all ground game metrics), the offensive line of the Jacksonville Jaguars profiles as the worst in the league last year.
- Travis Etienne’s rushing efficiency has declined this year, compiling a measly 3.86 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.07 rate last year.
- This year, the imposing Saints run defense has surrendered a puny 94.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 9th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
