Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Giants vs. Commanders
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).
Pros
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Giants to run on 49.8% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
- The 9th-most plays in the league have been called by the New York Giants this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).
- Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with lessened passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
- The model projects Saquon Barkley to notch 20.5 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- With a stellar rate of 77.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (98th percentile), Saquon Barkley stands as one of the leading RBs in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Giants may lean on the pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to use backup QB Tyrod Taylor.
- The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
Projection
THE BLITZ
89
Rushing Yards
89
Rushing Yards
